Forecasting the food security of the Donetsk People’s Republic under the conditions of uncertainty

Within the framework of this study, the forecasting of food security of the Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) was carried out under conditions of uncertainty. The main purpose of the study is to assess the current state and prospects for the development of the food system in the conditions of uncertainty. To achieve this goal, a comprehensive methodological approach has been applied, including an analysis of various aspects of food security, such as production indices, the degree of dependence on imports, food security and nutrition balance. An important stage in the study is the use of a scenario approach, which allowed us to develop three different scenarios of development: pessimistic, likeliest and optimistic one, which makes it possible to respond adequately to a variety of future situations. Within the framework of the pessimistic scenario, modeling was carried out taking into account adverse factors that may affect food security. The likeliest scenario is based on current trends and expected changes in the economic and social spheres. The optimistic scenario assumes favorable conditions for the development of the food system, including increased production, increased security and improved nutrition balance. With the help of regression modeling and exponential smoothing, predictive models for integral indicators of food security have been created. The study established positive dynamics in various areas of food security, emphasizing the importance of risk management and a variety of development strategies. Special attention is paid to the analysis of the safety margin of the food security system, which allows assessing the readiness of the system to adapt to changing conditions and risks. The study confirmed the potential for improvement and sustainable development of all aspects of food security. In conclusion, the importance of further efforts in agriculture, increasing food production and ensuring the sustainability of the DPR food system is emphasized. This work provides practical recommendations for strategic planning and decision-making in the field of food policy, taking into account risk management and ensuring a margin of safety.