Forecasting the dissemination of norms and values in Russia with the use of an agent-based approach

The paper presents an agent-based model for dissemination of norms and values and the experience of its use for forecasting the dynamics of opinions in Russian society, taking into account the influence of digital media and deterioration of the economic situation in the country. The chosen modeling method helps to predict the dynamics of population, economy and political system, taking into account their mutual influence. Each agent is assigned an appropriate set of norms and values and a model is designed showing how they change under the influence of the agent’s standard of living, communication with acquaintances and impact of the media. The model we present differs from its known analogues due to its connection with the model of artificial society, reflecting the population and economy of Russia on the basis of current data. The behavior of agents in the model is based on the concept of a social agent, which includes the principles of dividing agents into clusters of social activity, a way to represent the norms and values of the agent in the form of a set of options with varying frequency and the function of constructing subjective assessments of the standard of living based on the comparison of the agent with its environment. Information content of the model is based on the analysis of the results of the seventh wave of the World Values Survey concerning the relationship between the income level, assessment of the work of the political system and the norms of social responsibility, which showed a significant degree of correlation between incomes, political assessments and the norms of residents. On the basis of the developed model, we carried out scenario calculations so as to build a forecast of the likely dynamics of public sentiment in various economic conditions. The results obtained indicate a rather significant relationship between the economic situation and the satisfaction of residents with the actions of the government. In the developed model, the change in a person’s beliefs is limited to their inner world; therefore, implementing new aspirations in attempts to change one’s own life or society is an important direction for future research.