Forecasting demand in the road construction machinery market using data mining

The development of the digital economy, a high level of uncertainty in the external environment, political and economic conflicts, changes in global commodity markets dictate the need to develop and apply new methods for managing socio-economic systems, among which the tasks of forecasting demand are among the most significant and complex. From the accuracy of determining the market share and assessing the factors of competitiveness depend not only on the indicators of the use of the enterprise's resource potential, its liquidity and profitability, but also on strategic efficiency and sustainability. The purpose of the study is to develop and test a method for forecasting demand at an industrial enterprise using the data mining method, which makes it possible to take preventive management actions on the consumer characteristics of a product in order to achieve the target market share. Materials and methods: logical induction and deduction, analysis and synthesis, logical and statistical analysis, economic and mathematical modeling, methods of data mining, building decision trees. The paper considers the key features, main factors and main approaches to forecasting demand at industrial enterprises in modern conditions, modern methods used to forecast demand in an unstable environment; the expediency of using data mining methods for solving the problems of forecasting demand in industrial enterprises is substantiated. Used software Deductor, See5, WizWhy. Results. A method has been developed for forecasting demand at an industrial enterprise, based on the use of data mining - building decision trees - using automatic software systems. A feature of the method is its universal nature - it can be used to build forecasts in various industries. Conclusion. The practical significance of the developed method lies in the possibility of its use in making organizational and managerial decisions aimed at changing the consumer properties of products, the implementation of which will allow reaching the specified values of the market share. The key factors of competitiveness of products in the market of road construction equipment have been identified; recommendations are given for the further development of the method of forecasting the market share and volume of demand. Approbation of the method was carried out on the Russian market of road construction equipment. The possibilities of using the programs WizWhy, Deductor and See5 within the framework of the implementation of the method in practice are considered and conclusions are drawn about the reliability of the results of forecasts obtained with their use.