Forecasting of production level of agricultural products in private subsidiary farms

Production forecast of agricultural products in farms of the population on the base of optimization model is presented in this article. The authors determined that the problem of efficiency has become of increasing importance in connection with increasing of their portion in the total production of the main kinds of agricultural products. Society is interested in growth of crop yield and productivity of livestock production, on the basis of labor cost and real assets reduction. Currently 109 thousand of private subsidiary farms of the region produce 20.1% milk, 12.6% of meat, and 64.5% of eggs. In the structure of sown area the portion of potatoes and vegetables is 90.8 and 75.6% respectively is in the structure of sown area. The level of development of small forms of management largely depends on the economic status of large agricultural enterprises and the whole agro-industrial complex. Modern, sufficiently high proportion of private forms of management in cost of gross output of agriculture is a real value of this regularity. Therefore, in practical work of administration at all levels and scientific investigation, the private sector must be paid not less attention than agricultural enterprises and farms. In this regard, the investigation of problems related to the formation and development of private subsidiary farms of the population is actually. Production capacity expresses objective possibilities for the production and sale of products and revenues with existing resources and their rational use. A comprehensive assessment presumed the use of a wide system of indicators characterizing the degree of achievement of national economic goals: providing the population with food at affordable prices, production competitiveness, its profitability, providing with extended reproduction, application of resources, and capital stock, labor. Key words: private farms, efficiency, production optimization, economic-mathematical modeling.