Forecast parameters of average monetary income, level of poverty and income differentiation of the population in Russia

A point and interval forecast of the average monetary income of the population, level of poverty and income differentiation of the population for 2021-2025 is carried out. The greatest concern is the forecast value of the indicator "the number of people with monetary income below the level of the cost of living", which is expected to increase significantly. To reverse the negative trend of population growth with monetary income below the level of the cost of living, it is possible to make significant changes in the mechanism of regulating the income of the population. To find the factors that have a determining influence on the income of the population of Russia, the authors modeled this process. In the resulting model of the average monetary income of the population, five factors were statistically significant. They included the average monthly nominal gross payroll of employees of organizations, the minimum statutory monthly pay, the level of the cost of living; the share of the population with monetary income below the level of the cost of living; the Gini index. It is established that two of the five most significant factors the level of the cost of living and the minimum statutory monthly pay are state minimum social standards.