Spatial and temporal clustering of intrastate armed conflicts: alternative approaches to explaining the phenomenon

The article addresses the phenomenon of clustering of intrastate armed conflicts in space and time. The author reveals and evaluates the explanatory power and empirical validity of the two alternative approaches to interpretation of this phenomenon. Depending on the chosen approach, the conflict clustering can be regarded either as a manifestation of heterogeneous geographic distribution of contextual factors favorable to organized violence, or as a result of conflict diffusion (contagion) processes. The author argues that both explanatory approaches have been empirically tested to be valid and that they are to be considered as mutually conditional rather than mutually exclusive.