Public opinion monitoring of the state of the Russian society
Автор: Ilyin Vladimir Aleksandrovich
Журнал: Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast @volnc-esc-en
Рубрика: From the chief editor
Статья в выпуске: 4 (28) т.6, 2013 года.
Бесплатный доступ
Короткий адрес: https://sciup.org/147223492
IDR: 147223492
Текст обзорной статьи Public opinion monitoring of the state of the Russian society
More details on the results of ISEDT RAS polls are available at
The absence of positive changes in the evaluation of the President’s performance from February 2012 is proved by the dynamics of the answers obtained in the different social groups of population (tab. 2) . The average value for the last 6 surveys is also significantly (by 20% and more) worse than it was in 2007.
Table 2. Dynamics of the RF President’s activity approval by different social groups of population, % of the number of respondents
|
Indicator |
2007 |
2011 |
2012 |
Aug. 2012 |
Oct. 2012 |
Dec. 2012 |
Feb. 2013 |
April 2013 |
June 2013 |
Aug. 2013 |
Average for the last 6 surveys |
Dynamics (+/-), the last 6 surveys in comparison to 2012 |
|
Sex |
||||||||||||
|
Men |
73.6 |
55.6 |
48.9 |
52.5 |
47.7 |
49.2 |
53.1 |
54.3 |
53.5 |
53.1 |
51.8 |
+3 |
|
Women |
76.7 |
61.2 |
53.9 |
54.6 |
53.4 |
56.6 |
57.5 |
56.5 |
54.9 |
56.8 |
56.0 |
+2 |
|
Age |
||||||||||||
|
Under 30 |
76.6 |
58.3 |
49.7 |
51.6 |
50.8 |
50.1 |
55.6 |
56.6 |
48.1 |
50.9 |
52.0 |
+2 |
|
30–55 |
75.1 |
57.6 |
50.9 |
54.5 |
48.2 |
54.3 |
53.0 |
53.5 |
57.7 |
57.3 |
54.0 |
+3 |
|
Over 55 |
74.6 |
60.7 |
54.6 |
54.0 |
55.1 |
54.5 |
59.5 |
57.9 |
53.6 |
55.1 |
56.0 |
+1 |
|
Education |
||||||||||||
|
Secondary, incomplete secondary |
70.3 |
54.9 |
46.0 |
48.3 |
47.1 |
44.2 |
52.0 |
50.1 |
51.6 |
51.1 |
49.4 |
+3 |
|
Secondary vocational |
76.4 |
59.8 |
51.8 |
47.5 |
51.8 |
54.8 |
55.9 |
57.1 |
55.2 |
54.2 |
54.8 |
+3 |
|
Higher, incomplete higher |
80.1 |
61.3 |
56.6 |
65.2 |
53.5 |
59.9 |
58.6 |
59.7 |
56.3 |
60.1 |
58.0 |
+1 |
|
Income groups |
||||||||||||
|
20% of the poorest people |
65.1 |
45.7 |
40.9 |
41.2 |
40.7 |
36.6 |
40.9 |
43.4 |
52.8 |
47.0 |
43.6 |
+3 |
|
60% of the people with middle-sized income |
78.0 |
60.4 |
53.8 |
57.2 |
53.0 |
55.1 |
59.2 |
58.2 |
53.9 |
54.3 |
55.6 |
+2 |
|
20% of the most prosperous people |
82.6 |
68.9 |
59.4 |
60.3 |
59.3 |
66.0 |
63.9 |
64.9 |
60.8 |
66.7 |
63.6 |
+4 |
|
Territories |
||||||||||||
|
Vologda |
74.1 |
58.3 |
51.6 |
53.3 |
54.0 |
53.4 |
51.5 |
54.7 |
51.1 |
54.1 |
53.1 |
+2 |
|
Cherepovets |
82.8 |
68.5 |
62.3 |
65.0 |
61.5 |
63.2 |
64.1 |
61.4 |
65.3 |
62.8 |
63.1 |
+1 |
|
Districts |
72.2 |
53.9 |
46.3 |
48.0 |
44.3 |
48.3 |
53.1 |
52.8 |
49.9 |
51.5 |
50.0 |
+4 |
|
Oblast |
75.3 |
58.7 |
51.7 |
53.7 |
50.9 |
53.3 |
55.5 |
55.5 |
54.3 |
55.1 |
54.1 |
+2 |
Assessment of success in coping with challenging issues
The answers of the Vologda Oblast residents to the question “How successful is the RF President’s activity in dealing with challenging issues?” are presented in table 3 . They show that in 2007 the level of “successful” estimates of President V. Putin’s performance was higher than that of “unsuccessful” estimates by all the positions. As for 2011, during D. Medvedev’s Presidency, the opposite situation was observed: the share of negative assessments was significantly higher than the share of positive ones (by 15–20%).
For the 16 months of the third presidential term, the assessment of V. Putin’s performance in dealing with key issues has remained on the level of 2011. The population sees no significant difference between the performance of D. Medvedev as President and V. Putin during his third Presidency on these key issues so far.
Table 3. How successful, in your opinion, is the RF President’s activity in coping with challenging issues?, % of the number of respondents*
|
Indicator |
2007 |
2011 |
2012 |
Aug. 2012 |
Oct. 2012 |
Dec. 2012 |
Feb. 2013 |
April 2013 |
June 2013 |
Aug. 2013 |
Average for the last 6 surveys |
Dynamics (+/-), the last 6 surveys in comparison to 2012 |
||
|
2007 |
2011 |
2012 |
||||||||||||
|
Strengthening Russia’s standing in world affairs |
||||||||||||||
|
Successful |
58.4 |
46.2 |
43.1 |
47.2 |
41.9 |
44.1 |
45.1 |
46.7 |
41.7 |
45.3 |
44.1 |
-14 |
-2 |
+1 |
|
Unsuccessful |
24.9 |
33.7 |
37.9 |
34.9 |
39.4 |
39.0 |
34.4 |
39.5 |
37.1 |
36.4 |
37.6 |
+13 |
+4 |
0 |
|
Success index** |
133.5 |
112.5 |
105.2 |
112.3 |
102.5 |
105.1 |
110.7 |
107.2 |
104.6 |
108.9 |
106.5 |
-27 |
-6 |
+1 |
|
Imposing order in the country |
||||||||||||||
|
Successful |
53.2 |
36.6 |
35.4 |
40.9 |
34.8 |
37.5 |
37.7 |
37.2 |
35.1 |
39.9 |
37.0 |
-16 |
0 |
+2 |
|
Unsuccessful |
34.0 |
50.0 |
50.7 |
45.6 |
50.1 |
50.7 |
46.5 |
49.9 |
49.9 |
46.7 |
49.0 |
+15 |
-1 |
-2 |
|
Success index** |
119.2 |
86.6 |
84.7 |
95.3 |
84.7 |
86.8 |
91.2 |
87.3 |
85.2 |
93.2 |
88.0 |
-31 |
+1 |
+3 |
|
Protection of democracy and strengthening the citizens’ freedoms |
||||||||||||||
|
Successful |
44.4 |
32.4 |
28.8 |
33.0 |
26.7 |
28.5 |
30.0 |
30.4 |
29.1 |
34.7 |
29.9 |
-15 |
-3 |
+1 |
|
Unsuccessful |
37.0 |
48.3 |
52.3 |
48.1 |
54.0 |
54.7 |
49.8 |
54.9 |
50.0 |
48.5 |
52.0 |
+15 |
+4 |
0 |
|
Success index** |
107.4 |
84.1 |
76.5 |
84.9 |
72.7 |
73.8 |
80.2 |
75.5 |
79.1 |
86.2 |
77.9 |
-30 |
-6 |
+1 |
|
Economic recovery, increase in the citizens’ welfare |
||||||||||||||
|
Successful |
47.2 |
30.7 |
28.5 |
34.7 |
25.3 |
29.3 |
30.7 |
31.9 |
28.2 |
32.6 |
29.7 |
-18 |
-1 |
+1 |
|
Unsuccessful |
39.1 |
56.1 |
57.9 |
51.4 |
61.1 |
59.6 |
53.9 |
59.6 |
56.7 |
53.4 |
57.4 |
+18 |
+1 |
-1 |
|
Success index** |
108.1 |
74.6 |
70.6 |
83.3 |
64.2 |
69.7 |
76.8 |
72.3 |
71.5 |
79.2 |
72.3 |
-36 |
-2 |
+2 |
|
* Ranked according to the average value of the indicator for the last 6 surveys. ** For calculating each index the share of negative answers is subtracted from the share of positive answers, after that 100 is added to the obtained figure in order to avoid negative values. Consequently, fully negative answers would give the total index 0, fully positive answers – index 200, the balance between the former and the latter – index 100, which is. in fact, a neutral mark. |
||||||||||||||
Estimation of social condition
Table 4, representing the dynamics of population’s estimation of their social condition, shows that the share of positive answers about the mood and stock of patience on average for the last 6 surveys was higher than in 2007 (by 4.3% and 5.6%).
At the same time, the indicators of social self-identification for the same period have deteriorated: the share of people considering themselves to be “poor” and “extremely poor” increased by 5 p.p. (from 42% to 47%), the share of people with “average income” decreased (from 48% to 44%); Consumer Sentiment Index declined (by 15 p.p. – from 106 to 91).
Perhaps, these trends indicate that there is some conservation of the positive expectations from the authorities of all levels, people tend to concentrate more on their personal, family and private life. In our opinion, this is an alarming trend, for it establishes the principle of “it is good that it is not worse”. If the authorities do not seek to enhance the efficiency of their efforts to restore order in the country, promote the growth of the economy, increase the welfare of the population, protect democracy, secure the rights and freedoms of citizens, this may lead to very undesirable consequences. It is essential that people actually see the changes in their life on these key issues.
Table 4. Estimation of social condition, % of the number of respondents
|
Answer options |
2007 |
2011 |
2012 |
Aug. 2012 |
Oct. 2012 |
Dec. 2012 |
Feb. 2013 |
April 2013 |
June 2013 |
Aug. 2013 |
Average for the last 6 surveys |
Dynamics (+/-), the last 6 surveys in comparison to 2012 |
|
Mood |
||||||||||||
|
Usual condition, good mood |
63.6 |
63.1 |
67.3 |
71.3 |
69.0 |
68.0 |
66.6 |
68.6 |
66.4 |
68.7 |
67.9 |
+1 |
|
Feeling stress, anger, fear, depression |
27.8 |
28.9 |
27.0 |
23.3 |
25.5 |
26.5 |
30.5 |
26.0 |
25.9 |
26.3 |
26.8 |
0 |
|
Stock of patience |
||||||||||||
|
Everything is not so bad; it’s difficult to live, but it’s possible to stand it |
74.1 |
74.8 |
76.6 |
73.2 |
77.5 |
79.9 |
75.5 |
77.9 |
77.8 |
79.7 |
78.1 |
+2 |
|
It’s impossible to bear such plight |
13.6 |
15.3 |
15.8 |
17.0 |
15.6 |
13.7 |
16.1 |
16.5 |
13.7 |
14.7 |
15.1 |
-1 |
|
Social self-identification |
||||||||||||
|
The share of people who consider themselves to be poor and extremely poor |
42.4 |
44.3 |
44.5 |
44.2 |
44.1 |
47.0 |
45.9 |
48.2 |
48.3 |
46.8 |
46.7 |
+2 |
|
The share of people who consider themselves to have average income |
48.2 |
43.1 |
44.7 |
43.4 |
44.7 |
43.4 |
44.3 |
42.6 |
41.9 |
44.9 |
43.6 |
-1 |
|
Consumer Sentiment Index |
||||||||||||
|
Index value, points |
105.9 |
89.6 |
91.5 |
92.3 |
91.7 |
91.7 |
92.3 |
90.4 |
89.8 |
91.0 |
91.2 |
0 |
Attitude of the population toward political parties
The lack of positive changes is observed in the level of support of the ruling party. By the end of V. Putin’s second Presidency (2007) and during D. Medvedev’s Presidency (2011), as well as in 2012 and 2013 the level of support of “United Russia” was 29–30% (tab. 5) . At that, the share of the oblast’s residents, whose interests are expressed by no party, is continuing to increase (in 2007 – 18%, in 2011 – 29%, in 2012 – 31%, on average for the last 6 surveys – 34%).
Table 5. Which party expresses your interests?, % of the number of respondents
|
Party |
g |
E Q CO о о ° |
5 |
E Q CO о о ° |
5 |
< |
о |
Q |
CO |
CO |
CO |
co |
$и § E |
|
|
United Russia |
30.2 |
60.5 |
31.1 |
33.4 |
29.1 |
31.4 |
26.6 |
30.4 |
30.5 |
28.5 |
31.3 |
29.6 |
29.5 |
0 |
|
KPRF |
7.0 |
9.3 |
10.3 |
16.8 |
10.6 |
9.5 |
10.4 |
12.2 |
9.7 |
11.0 |
11.3 |
12.0 |
11.1 |
+1 |
|
LDPR |
7.5 |
11.0 |
7.8 |
15.4 |
7.8 |
6.7 |
6.8 |
7.2 |
6.3 |
7.1 |
6.6 |
6.8 |
6.8 |
-1 |
|
Just Russia |
7.8 |
8.8 |
5.6 |
27.2 |
6.6 |
5.6 |
5.5 |
5.5 |
5.3 |
5.1 |
4.7 |
4.3 |
5.1 |
-2 |
|
Other |
1.8 |
– |
1.9 |
– |
2.1 |
2.3 |
2.4 |
3.5 |
3.5 |
3.4 |
2.0 |
3.4 |
3.0 |
+1 |
|
No party |
17.8 |
– |
29.4 |
– |
31.3 |
33.2 |
36.1 |
32.5 |
35.3 |
37.1 |
31.7 |
33.4 |
34.4 |
+3 |
|
It is difficult to answer |
21.2 |
– |
13.2 |
– |
11.7 |
11.1 |
12.3 |
8.7 |
9.3 |
7.8 |
12.3 |
10.5 |
10.2 |
-2 |
j
As in the previous issues, we publish the journal articles rating in this one.
The first twenty articles, published in 2010–2013, according to the number of views for the whole accounting period
|
s |
Article |
Number of views for the whole accounting period |
Issue |
Release date |
Authors |
|
1 |
Agriculture of the Vologda Oblast on the eve of Russia’s accession to the World Trade Organisation |
214 |
No.21 |
June 2012 |
Anishchenko Nikolay Ivanovich, Ivanova Marina Nikolayevna, Bilkov Valentin Alekseyevich |
|
2 |
Fiscal federalism and inter-budget relations in the Russian Federation |
207 |
No.13 |
February 2011 |
Avetisyan Ishkhan Artashovich |
|
3 |
Methodology of the comparative estimation of the scientific and technical potential of the region |
194 |
No.12 |
December 2010 |
Zadumkin Konstantin Alekseyevich, Kondakov Igor Anatolyevich |
|
4 |
Modernization of the Russian economy as the imperative of the country’s prospective innovative development |
190 |
No.16 |
August 2011 |
Kondakov Igor Anatolyevich |
|
5 |
Threats to the region’s economic security and the ways to overcome them |
176 |
No.14 |
April 2011 |
Uskova Tamara Vitalyevna, Kondakov Igor Anatolyevich |
|
6 |
Intellectual resources as innovation development factor |
172 |
No.11 |
September 2010 |
Ilyin Vladimir Aleksandrovich, Gulin Konstantin Anatolyevich, Uskova Tamara Vitalyevna |
|
7 |
Agriculture on the European North: All-Russian agricultural census results |
146 |
No.11 |
September 2010 |
Ivanov Valentin Aleksandrovich, Ivanova Yelena Valentinovna |
|
8 |
Demographic problems of the Republic of Belarus and their solutions |
116 |
No.16 |
August 2011 |
Shakhotko Lyudmila Petrovna |
|
9 |
Small business is an important reserve for development of a one company town |
100 |
No.11 |
September 2010 |
Tkachuk Stepan Nikolayevich |
|
10 |
Technologies substituting hospitalization in regional health: economic-organizing aspect |
89 |
No.10 |
June 2010 |
Duganov Mikhail Davidovich, Shabunova Aleksandra Anatolyevna, Kalashnikov Konstantin Nokolayevich |
|
11 |
Investment process in the region: the new century – old problems |
85 |
No.11 |
September 2010 |
Gubanova Yelena Sergeyevna, Vorontsova Tatyana Vladimirovna |
|
12 |
Strategic reserves of growth in labour productivity in regional economy |
73 |
No. 9 |
March 2010 |
Ilyin Vladimir Aleksandrovich, Gulin Konstantin Anatolyevich, Uskova Tamara Vitalyevna |
|
13 |
Budget provision of municipal entities in the Vologda region: state, problems and improvement ways |
65 |
No.9 |
March 2010 |
Povarova Anna Ivanovna, Uskova Tamara Vitalyevna |
|
14 |
Principles and practice of operation of foreign technology transfer centers |
64 |
No.13 |
March 2011 |
Terebova Svetlana Viktorovna, Volkova Lyubov Alekseyevna |
|
15 |
Foreign economic activity of the NWFD regions and the Republic of Belarus: condition and methodological aspects of modelling |
62 |
No.12 |
December 2010 |
Uskova Tamara Vitalyevna, Asanovich Valeriy Yakovlevich, Dedkov Sergey Maratovich, Selimenkov Roman Yuryevich |
|
16 |
Social development of rural areas – a basis of agriculture stability |
53 |
No.11 |
September 2010 |
Chekavinskiy Aleksandr Nikolayevich |
|
17 |
The post-crisis economic development and prospects of innovation activity in the Tomsk region |
46 |
No.15 |
June 2011 |
Myakota Yekaterina Aleksandrovna, Vorobyov Aleksandr Grigoryevich, Putilov Aleksandr Valentinovich, Zhiganov Aleksandr Nikolayevich |
|
18 |
Public-private partnership in the scientific and technological sphere of defense industry: Russian and foreign experience |
45 |
No.20 |
April 2012 |
Nikolayev Aleksey Yevgenyevich |
|
19 |
Topical issues of the improvement of intergovernmental dealings in the system of local government |
45 |
No.19 |
March 2012 |
Uskova Tamara Vitalyevna Pechenskaya Mariya Aleksandrovna |
|
20 |
Problems of sustainable development of rural areas in the Vologda Oblast |
44 |
No.17 |
October 2011 |
Shestakov Sergey Aleksandrovich |
* Account of the site’s viewing has been carried out since 2009, December, 12.
The first twenty articles, published in 2010–2013, according to the frequency of their viewing for the recent 12 months (September 2012 – August 2013)
|
s |
Article |
Total time of reading for the recent 12 months |
Issue |
Release date |
Authors |
|
1 |
Agriculture of the Vologda Oblast on the eve of Russia’s accession to the World Trade Organisation |
213 |
No.21 |
June 2012 |
Anishchenko Nikolay Ivanovich, Ivanova Marina Nikolayevna, Bilkov Valentin Alekseyevich |
|
2 |
Demographic problems of the Republic of Belarus and their solutions |
66 |
No.16 |
August 2011 |
Shakhotko Lyudmila Petrovna |
|
3 |
Threats to the region’s economic security and the ways to overcome them |
43 |
No.14 |
April 2011 |
Uskova Tamara Vitalyevna, Kondakov Igor Anatolyevich |
|
4 |
Assessment of the critical threshold values of the indicators of the state of Russian society and their use in the socio-economic development management |
43 |
No.22 |
August 2012 |
Glazyev Sergey Yuryevich, Lokosov Vyacheslav Veniaminovich |
|
5 |
Methodology of the comparative estimation of the scientific and technical potential of the region |
31 |
No.12 |
December 2010 |
Zadumkin Konstantin Alekseyevich, Kondakov Igor Anatolyevich |
|
6 |
Problems of sustainable development of rural areas in the Vologda Oblast |
29 |
No.17 |
October 2011 |
Shestakov Sergey Aleksandrovich |
|
7 |
Public-private partnership in the scientific and technological sphere of defense industry: Russian and foreign experience |
24 |
No.20 |
April 2012 |
Nikolayev Aleksey Yevgenyevich |
|
8 |
Fiscal federalism and inter-budget relations in the Russian Federation |
23 |
No.13 |
March 2011 |
Avetisyan Ishkhan Artashovich |
|
9 |
Socio-economic transformation of Russian society |
23 |
No.22 |
August 2012 |
Perova Margarita Borisovna, Perov Evgeniy Viktorovich |
|
10 |
Topical issues of the improvement of intergovernmental dealings in the system of local government |
20 |
No.19 |
February 2012 |
Uskova Tamara Vitalyevna, Pechenskaya Mariya Aleksandrovna |
|
11 |
The budget process as a tool for managing the public and municipal finances |
19 |
No.19 |
February 2012 |
Avetisyan Ishkhan Artashovich |
|
12 |
Institutional reasons for economic problems in Russia’s local self-government |
19 |
No.22 |
August 2012 |
Dyadik Vladimir Vladimirovich |
|
13 |
Economic risks of agricultural organizations’ activity in the Vologda Oblast in the context of Russia’s membership in WTO |
17 |
No.24 |
December 2012 |
Ivanova Marina Nikolayevna |
|
14 |
Methodological foundations of sustainable development of the agricultural sector |
16 |
No.16 |
August 2011 |
Ivanov Valentin Aleksandrovich, Ponomareva Anna Sergeyevna |
|
15 |
On the strategy of sustainable development of Russia’s economy |
16 |
No.25 |
December 2012 |
Glazyev Sergey Yuryevich, Fetisov Gleb Gennadyevich |
|
16 |
Intensification and innovation approach toward the dairy livestock breeding in Vologodsky District |
16 |
No.23 |
October 2012 |
Bilkov Valentin Alekseyevich, Shaverina Marina Valentinovna, Medvedeva Nataliya Aleksandrovna |
|
17 |
Analysis of trends and development forecast of small enterprises in Russia |
16 |
No.21 |
June 2012 |
Pinkovetskaya Yuliya Semenovna |
|
18 |
Agriculture on the European North: All-Russian agricultural census results |
15 |
No.11 |
September 2010 |
Ivanov Valentin Aleksandrovich, Ivanova Yelena Valentinovna |
|
19 |
Industrial policy as a tool of neo-industrialization of regional industrial systems |
14 |
No.24 |
December 2012 |
Lavrikova Yuliya Georgiyevna, Romanova Olga Aleksandrovna |
|
20 |
On the issue of socio-economic modernization of Russian regions |
14 |
No.22 |
August 2012 |
Gulin Konstantin Anatolyevich |
* Account of the site’s viewing has been carried out since 2009, December, 12.
