Public opinion monitoring of the state of the Russian society
Автор: Ilyin Vladimir Aleksandrovich
Журнал: Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast @volnc-esc-en
Рубрика: From the chief editor
Статья в выпуске: 2 (32) т.7, 2014 года.
Бесплатный доступ
Короткий адрес: https://sciup.org/147223587
IDR: 147223587
Текст обзорной статьи Public opinion monitoring of the state of the Russian society
In early 2014 important changes took place at the world political arena; they had a significant influence on the internal policy of the RF President of the Russian Federation and the nature of public opinion in all social-demographic groups of the society. The oppression of the Russianspeaking population in Ukraine, the referendum in the Crimea and Sevastopol and their subsequent accession to the Russian Federation as its subjects became the catalyst of consolidation of all the layers of the population around the external policy of the RF President, defending the country’s national interests not only in words, but in deeds.
In February – April 2014 the approval level of the performance of Russia’s President by the Vologda Oblast population increased from 56 to 63%. Key changes that have occurred in the last two months had an impact on the estimation of the performance of the Federal Government, but they were not observed at the regional level. The approval level of the performance of the Vologda Oblast Governor for February – April 2014 has not changed and amounted to 42–43%, the share of negative assessments is 37–39%.
Table 1. How do you assess the current performance of.. as a percentage of the number of respondents
|
Indicator |
2007 |
2011 |
2012 |
2013 |
June 2013 |
Aug. 2013 |
Oct. 2013 |
Dec. 2013 |
Feb. 2014 |
Apr. 2014 |
Average for the last 6 surveys |
Dynamics (+/-), the last 6 surveys in comparison with |
||
|
2012 |
2011 |
2007 |
||||||||||||
|
RF President |
||||||||||||||
|
I approve |
75.3 |
58.7 |
51.7 |
55.3 |
54.3 |
55.1 |
54.3 |
57.3 |
56.1 |
62.8 |
56.7 |
+5 |
-2 |
-19 |
|
I do not approve |
11.5 |
25.6 |
32.6 |
29.4 |
29.3 |
28.9 |
28.7 |
28.9 |
29.3 |
25.4 |
28.4 |
-4 |
+3 |
+17 |
|
Chairman of the RF Government* |
||||||||||||||
|
I approve |
- |
59.3 |
49.6 |
48.9 |
46.2 |
50.4 |
49.0 |
51.1 |
49.3 |
52.5 |
49.8 |
0 |
-10 |
- |
|
I do not approve |
- |
24.7 |
33.3 |
32.8 |
33.2 |
30.4 |
30.6 |
32.5 |
32.9 |
30.9 |
31.8 |
-2 |
+7 |
- |
|
Governor |
||||||||||||||
|
I approve |
55.8 |
45.7 |
41.9 |
44.4 |
44.3 |
44.8 |
45.9 |
44.1 |
42.8 |
41.6 |
43.9 |
+2 |
-2 |
-12 |
|
I do not approve |
22.2 |
30.5 |
33.3 |
33.2 |
31.9 |
31.1 |
32.4 |
35.3 |
36.9 |
39.0 |
34.4 |
+1 |
+4 |
+12 |
|
* included into the survey since 2008. |
||||||||||||||
More than 70% of the Vologda Oblast population give positive assessments of Russia’s policy towards Ukraine (71%) and support the accession of the Crimea as a subject of the Russian Federation (78%).
Table 2. How do you assess the policy of Russia with regard to Ukraine?
|
Answer |
April 2014 |
|
I fully and rather approve |
71.3 |
|
I fully and rather do not approve |
12.0 |
|
It is difficult to answer |
16.7 |
Table 3. Do you agree or not agree with the Crimea joining Russia as its subject?
|
Answer |
April 2014 |
|
Yes, I agree |
78.0 |
|
No, I do not agree |
10.4 |
|
It is difficult to answer |
11.6 |
Over the same period, the approval level of the President’s activity increased in all the sociodemographic groups of the population, especially among women (from 57 to 66%), people aged under 30 (from 53 to 61%) and 30–55 (from 55 to 62%), with higher and incomplete higher education (from 59 to 69%).
Table 4. Dynamics of the RF President’s activity approval by different social groups of population, as a percentage of the number of respondents
|
Indicator |
2007 |
2011 |
2012 |
2013 |
June 2013 |
Aug. 2013 |
Oct. 2013 |
Dec. 2013 |
Feb. 2014 |
Apr. 2014 |
Average for the last 6 surveys |
Dynamics (+/-), the last 6 surveys in comparison with |
||
|
2012 |
2011 |
2007 |
||||||||||||
|
Sex |
||||||||||||||
|
Men |
73.6 |
55.6 |
48.9 |
52.4 |
53.5 |
53.1 |
48.1 |
52.5 |
55.4 |
58.7 |
53.6 |
+5 |
-2 |
-20 |
|
Women |
76.7 |
61.2 |
53.9 |
57.7 |
54.9 |
56.8 |
59.3 |
61.1 |
56.6 |
66.1 |
59.1 |
+5 |
-2 |
-18 |
|
Age |
||||||||||||||
|
Under 30 |
76.6 |
58.3 |
49.7 |
52.9 |
48.1 |
50.9 |
53.4 |
52.7 |
53.0 |
61.1 |
53.2 |
+4 |
-5 |
-23 |
|
30–55 |
75.1 |
57.6 |
50.9 |
55.4 |
57.7 |
57.3 |
54.1 |
56.5 |
54.9 |
62.4 |
57.2 |
+6 |
0 |
-18 |
|
Over 55 |
74.6 |
60.7 |
54.6 |
57.1 |
53.6 |
55.1 |
55.1 |
61.6 |
59.8 |
64.7 |
58.3 |
+4 |
-2 |
-16 |
|
Education |
||||||||||||||
|
Incomplete secondary, secondary |
70.3 |
54.9 |
46.0 |
51.4 |
51.6 |
51.1 |
47.5 |
55.8 |
51.9 |
58.1 |
52.7 |
+7 |
-2 |
-18 |
|
Secondary vocational |
76.4 |
59.8 |
51.8 |
55.8 |
55.2 |
54.2 |
54.3 |
58.1 |
58.0 |
62.1 |
57.0 |
+5 |
-3 |
-19 |
|
Incomplete higher, higher |
80.1 |
61.3 |
56.6 |
59.1 |
56.3 |
60.1 |
61.4 |
58.2 |
58.8 |
69.2 |
60.7 |
+4 |
-1 |
-19 |
|
Income groups |
||||||||||||||
|
20% of the poorest people |
65.1 |
45.7 |
40.9 |
49.6 |
52.8 |
47.0 |
50.7 |
62.7 |
46.1 |
48.9 |
51.4 |
+11 |
+6 |
-14 |
|
60% of the people with middle-sized income |
78.0 |
60.4 |
53.8 |
56.1 |
53.9 |
54.3 |
54.4 |
56.4 |
57.9 |
64.4 |
56.9 |
+3 |
-4 |
-21 |
|
20% of the most prosperous people |
82.6 |
68.9 |
59.4 |
63.6 |
60.8 |
66.7 |
60.8 |
64.6 |
69.4 |
72.6 |
65.8 |
+6 |
-3 |
-17 |
|
Territories |
||||||||||||||
|
Vologda |
74.1 |
58.3 |
51.6 |
53.2 |
51.1 |
54.1 |
52.7 |
55.2 |
53.1 |
61.0 |
54.5 |
+3 |
-4 |
-20 |
|
Cherepotets |
82.8 |
68.5 |
62.3 |
63.7 |
65.3 |
62.8 |
63.8 |
65.0 |
66.8 |
73.2 |
66.2 |
+4 |
-2 |
-17 |
|
Districts |
72.2 |
53.9 |
46.3 |
51.9 |
49.9 |
51.5 |
49.8 |
54.1 |
51.8 |
58.1 |
52.5 |
+6 |
-1 |
-20 |
|
Oblast |
75.3 |
58.7 |
51.7 |
55.3 |
54.3 |
55.1 |
54.3 |
57.3 |
56.1 |
62.8 |
56.7 |
+5 |
-2 |
-19 |
The last two months saw an increase in the share of the Oblast residents who believe that the RF President is successful in coping with key problems in the country (by 3-4 p.p.).
Table 5. In your opinion, how successful is the RF President in coping with challenging issues?*, as a percentage of the number of respondents
|
Indicator |
2007 |
2011 |
2012 |
2013 |
June 2013 |
Aug. 2013 |
Oct. 2013 |
Dec. 2013 |
Feb. 2014 |
Apr. 2014 |
Average for the last 6 surveys |
Dynamics (+/-), the last 6 surveys in comparison with |
||
|
2012 |
2011 |
2007 |
||||||||||||
|
Strengthening Russia’s international standing |
||||||||||||||
|
Successful |
58.4 |
46.2 |
43.1 |
45.7 |
41.7 |
45.3 |
47.7 |
47.5 |
45.9 |
48.6 |
46.1 |
+3 |
0 |
-12 |
|
Unsuccessful |
24.9 |
33.7 |
37.9 |
36.2 |
37.1 |
36.4 |
33.7 |
35.8 |
35.7 |
35.5 |
35.7 |
-2 |
+2 |
+11 |
|
Index of success |
133.5 |
112.5 |
105.2 |
109.5 |
104.6 |
108.9 |
114.0 |
111.7 |
110.2 |
113.1 |
110.4 |
+5 |
-2 |
-23 |
|
Imposing order in the country |
||||||||||||||
|
Successful |
53.2 |
36.6 |
35.4 |
39.4 |
35.1 |
39.9 |
41.7 |
44.5 |
42.7 |
46.7 |
41.8 |
+6 |
+5 |
-11 |
|
Unsuccessful |
34.0 |
50.0 |
50.7 |
47.5 |
49.9 |
46.7 |
46.7 |
45.5 |
43.7 |
40.9 |
45.6 |
-5 |
-4 |
+12 |
|
Index of success |
119.2 |
86.6 |
84.7 |
91.9 |
85.2 |
93.2 |
95.0 |
99.0 |
99.0 |
105.8 |
96.2 |
+12 |
+10 |
-23 |
|
Protecting democracy and strengthening the citizens’ freedoms |
||||||||||||||
|
Successful |
44.4 |
32.4 |
28.8 |
31.8 |
29.1 |
34.7 |
33.5 |
32.8 |
32.3 |
36.3 |
33.1 |
+4 |
+1 |
-11 |
|
Unsuccessful |
37.0 |
48.3 |
52.3 |
51.0 |
50.0 |
48.5 |
50.9 |
51.6 |
50.1 |
48.7 |
50.0 |
-2 |
+2 |
+13 |
|
Index of success |
107.4 |
84.1 |
76.5 |
80.8 |
79.1 |
86.2 |
82.6 |
81.2 |
82.2 |
87.6 |
83.2 |
+7 |
-1 |
-24 |
|
Economic recovery and increase in the citizens’ welfare |
||||||||||||||
|
Successful |
47.2 |
30.7 |
28.5 |
31.3 |
28.2 |
32.6 |
31.9 |
32.6 |
31.5 |
34.9 |
32.0 |
+4 |
+1 |
-15 |
|
Unsuccessful |
39.1 |
56.1 |
57.9 |
56.8 |
56.7 |
53.4 |
57.7 |
59.7 |
57.1 |
54.3 |
56.5 |
-1 |
0 |
+17 |
|
Index of success |
108.1 |
74.6 |
70.6 |
74.5 |
71.5 |
79.2 |
74.2 |
72.9 |
74.4 |
80.6 |
75.5 |
+5 |
+1 |
-33 |
|
* Ranked according to the average value of the indicator for the last 6 surveys. |
||||||||||||||
From February to April 2014 the share of the Oblast residents, who positively characterize their mood has increased (from 65 to 69%). The stock of patience has increased from 77 to 81%.
Table 6. Estimation of social condition (as a percentage of the number of respondents)
|
Indicator |
2007 |
2011 |
2012 |
2013 |
June 2013 |
Aug. 2013 |
Oct. 2013 |
Dec. 2013 |
Feb. 2014 |
Apr. 2014 |
Average for the last 6 surveys |
Dynamics (+/-), the last 6 surveys in comparison with |
||
|
2012 |
2011 |
2007 |
||||||||||||
|
Mood |
||||||||||||||
|
Usual condition, good mood |
63.6 |
63.1 |
67.3 |
68.6 |
66.4 |
68.7 |
71.5 |
69.6 |
65.1 |
69.3 |
68.4 |
+1 |
+5 |
+5 |
|
Feeling stress, anger, fear, depression |
27.8 |
28.9 |
27.0 |
26.2 |
25.9 |
26.3 |
24.0 |
26.2 |
27.1 |
24.9 |
25.7 |
-1 |
-3 |
-2 |
|
Stock of patience |
||||||||||||||
|
Everything is not so bad; it’s difficult to live, but it’s possible to stand it |
74.1 |
74.8 |
76.6 |
79.3 |
77.8 |
79.7 |
81.6 |
83.1 |
79.8 |
81.3 |
80.6 |
+4 |
+6 |
+7 |
|
It’s impossible to bear such plight |
13.6 |
15.3 |
15.8 |
14.2 |
13.7 |
14.7 |
12.3 |
12.0 |
12.3 |
11.1 |
12.7 |
-3 |
-3 |
-1 |
|
Social self-identification |
||||||||||||||
|
The share of people who consider themselves to have average income |
48.2 |
43.1 |
44.7 |
43.9 |
41.9 |
44.9 |
45.7 |
43.7 |
44.2 |
43.1 |
43.9 |
-1 |
+1 |
-4 |
|
The share of people who consider themselves to be poor and extremely poor |
42.4 |
44.3 |
44.5 |
46.9 |
48.3 |
46.8 |
45.4 |
46.7 |
46.9 |
49.1 |
47.2 |
+3 |
+3 |
+5 |
|
Consumer Sentiment Index |
||||||||||||||
|
Index value, points |
105.9 |
89.6 |
91.5 |
90.3 |
89.8 |
91.0 |
90.4 |
87.9 |
91.5 |
90.3 |
90.2 |
-1 |
+1 |
-16 |
As for political preferences of the population, the party “United Russia” retains the leading role in this regard. The level of its support in February – April 2014 was 28–30%, on average for the last 6 surveys – 29%, which approximately corresponds to the level of 2007–2013. The positions of KPRF and LDPR are also stable; they have the support of 11% and 8% of the Oblast residents, respectively. “Just Russia” has become less popular than in 2007–2012: 3% in February – April 2014; the average for the last 6 surveys – 4%; in 2007–2012 – 6-8%. The share of those who believe that no existing party expresses their interests has stabilized at the level of 35%. It is higher than in 2007 and 2012 (18 and 31%, respectively).
Table 7. Which party expresses your interests?, as a percentage of the number of respondents
|
Party |
2007 |
Election to the RF State Duma 2007, fact |
2011 |
Election to the RF State Duma 2011, fact |
2012 |
2013 |
June 2013 |
Aug. 2013 |
Oct. 2013 |
Dec. 2013 |
Feb. 2014 |
Apr. 2014 |
Average for the last 6 surveys |
Dynamics (+/-), the last 6 surveys in comparison with |
||
|
2012 |
2011 |
2007 |
||||||||||||||
|
United Russia |
30.2 |
60.5 |
31.1 |
33.4 |
29.1 |
29.4 |
31.3 |
29.6 |
26.9 |
29.5 |
28.3 |
29.5 |
29.2 |
0 |
-2 |
-1 |
|
KPRF |
7.0 |
9.3 |
10.3 |
16.8 |
10.6 |
11.3 |
11.3 |
12.0 |
11.9 |
11.8 |
10.9 |
10.7 |
11.4 |
+1 |
+1 |
+4 |
|
LDPR |
7.5 |
11.0 |
7.8 |
15.4 |
7.8 |
7.2 |
6.6 |
6.8 |
8.4 |
8.1 |
8.9 |
8.3 |
7.9 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
Just Russia |
7.8 |
8.8 |
5.6 |
27.2 |
6.6 |
4.6 |
4.7 |
4.3 |
4.0 |
4.4 |
3.5 |
3.3 |
4.0 |
-3 |
-2 |
-4 |
|
Other |
1.8 |
– |
1.9 |
– |
2.1 |
0.6 |
2.0 |
3.4 |
1.0 |
0.8 |
0.4 |
0.2 |
1.3 |
-1 |
-1 |
-1 |
|
No party |
17.8 |
– |
29.4 |
– |
31.3 |
34.9 |
31.7 |
33.4 |
37.3 |
34.4 |
35.2 |
34.8 |
34.5 |
+3 |
+5 |
+17 |
|
It is difficult to answer |
21.2 |
– |
13.2 |
– |
11.7 |
10.2 |
12.3 |
10.5 |
10.5 |
10.9 |
12.7 |
13.1 |
11.7 |
0 |
-2 |
-10 |
