Public opinion monitoring of the state of the Russian society

Автор: Ilyin Vladimir Aleksandrovich

Журнал: Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast @volnc-esc-en

Рубрика: From the chief editor

Статья в выпуске: 2 (32) т.7, 2014 года.

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Короткий адрес: https://sciup.org/147223587

IDR: 147223587

Текст обзорной статьи Public opinion monitoring of the state of the Russian society

In early 2014 important changes took place at the world political arena; they had a significant influence on the internal policy of the RF President of the Russian Federation and the nature of public opinion in all social-demographic groups of the society. The oppression of the Russianspeaking population in Ukraine, the referendum in the Crimea and Sevastopol and their subsequent accession to the Russian Federation as its subjects became the catalyst of consolidation of all the layers of the population around the external policy of the RF President, defending the country’s national interests not only in words, but in deeds.

In February – April 2014 the approval level of the performance of Russia’s President by the Vologda Oblast population increased from 56 to 63%. Key changes that have occurred in the last two months had an impact on the estimation of the performance of the Federal Government, but they were not observed at the regional level. The approval level of the performance of the Vologda Oblast Governor for February – April 2014 has not changed and amounted to 42–43%, the share of negative assessments is 37–39%.

Table 1. How do you assess the current performance of.. as a percentage of the number of respondents

Indicator

2007

2011

2012

2013

June 2013

Aug. 2013

Oct.

2013

Dec. 2013

Feb. 2014

Apr. 2014

Average for the last 6 surveys

Dynamics (+/-), the last 6 surveys in comparison with

2012

2011

2007

RF President

I approve

75.3

58.7

51.7

55.3

54.3

55.1

54.3

57.3

56.1

62.8

56.7

+5

-2

-19

I do not approve

11.5

25.6

32.6

29.4

29.3

28.9

28.7

28.9

29.3

25.4

28.4

-4

+3

+17

Chairman of the RF Government*

I approve

-

59.3

49.6

48.9

46.2

50.4

49.0

51.1

49.3

52.5

49.8

0

-10

-

I do not approve

-

24.7

33.3

32.8

33.2

30.4

30.6

32.5

32.9

30.9

31.8

-2

+7

-

Governor

I approve

55.8

45.7

41.9

44.4

44.3

44.8

45.9

44.1

42.8

41.6

43.9

+2

-2

-12

I do not approve

22.2

30.5

33.3

33.2

31.9

31.1

32.4

35.3

36.9

39.0

34.4

+1

+4

+12

* included into the survey since 2008.

More than 70% of the Vologda Oblast population give positive assessments of Russia’s policy towards Ukraine (71%) and support the accession of the Crimea as a subject of the Russian Federation (78%).

Table 2. How do you assess the policy of Russia with regard to Ukraine?

Answer

April 2014

I fully and rather approve

71.3

I fully and rather do not approve

12.0

It is difficult to answer

16.7

Table 3. Do you agree or not agree with the Crimea joining Russia as its subject?

Answer

April 2014

Yes, I agree

78.0

No, I do not agree

10.4

It is difficult to answer

11.6

Over the same period, the approval level of the President’s activity increased in all the sociodemographic groups of the population, especially among women (from 57 to 66%), people aged under 30 (from 53 to 61%) and 30–55 (from 55 to 62%), with higher and incomplete higher education (from 59 to 69%).

Table 4. Dynamics of the RF President’s activity approval by different social groups of population, as a percentage of the number of respondents

Indicator

2007

2011

2012

2013

June 2013

Aug. 2013

Oct.

2013

Dec. 2013

Feb. 2014

Apr. 2014

Average for the last 6 surveys

Dynamics (+/-), the last 6 surveys in comparison with

2012

2011

2007

Sex

Men

73.6

55.6

48.9

52.4

53.5

53.1

48.1

52.5

55.4

58.7

53.6

+5

-2

-20

Women

76.7

61.2

53.9

57.7

54.9

56.8

59.3

61.1

56.6

66.1

59.1

+5

-2

-18

Age

Under 30

76.6

58.3

49.7

52.9

48.1

50.9

53.4

52.7

53.0

61.1

53.2

+4

-5

-23

30–55

75.1

57.6

50.9

55.4

57.7

57.3

54.1

56.5

54.9

62.4

57.2

+6

0

-18

Over 55

74.6

60.7

54.6

57.1

53.6

55.1

55.1

61.6

59.8

64.7

58.3

+4

-2

-16

Education

Incomplete secondary, secondary

70.3

54.9

46.0

51.4

51.6

51.1

47.5

55.8

51.9

58.1

52.7

+7

-2

-18

Secondary vocational

76.4

59.8

51.8

55.8

55.2

54.2

54.3

58.1

58.0

62.1

57.0

+5

-3

-19

Incomplete higher, higher

80.1

61.3

56.6

59.1

56.3

60.1

61.4

58.2

58.8

69.2

60.7

+4

-1

-19

Income groups

20% of the poorest people

65.1

45.7

40.9

49.6

52.8

47.0

50.7

62.7

46.1

48.9

51.4

+11

+6

-14

60% of the people with middle-sized income

78.0

60.4

53.8

56.1

53.9

54.3

54.4

56.4

57.9

64.4

56.9

+3

-4

-21

20% of the most prosperous people

82.6

68.9

59.4

63.6

60.8

66.7

60.8

64.6

69.4

72.6

65.8

+6

-3

-17

Territories

Vologda

74.1

58.3

51.6

53.2

51.1

54.1

52.7

55.2

53.1

61.0

54.5

+3

-4

-20

Cherepotets

82.8

68.5

62.3

63.7

65.3

62.8

63.8

65.0

66.8

73.2

66.2

+4

-2

-17

Districts

72.2

53.9

46.3

51.9

49.9

51.5

49.8

54.1

51.8

58.1

52.5

+6

-1

-20

Oblast

75.3

58.7

51.7

55.3

54.3

55.1

54.3

57.3

56.1

62.8

56.7

+5

-2

-19

The last two months saw an increase in the share of the Oblast residents who believe that the RF President is successful in coping with key problems in the country (by 3-4 p.p.).

Table 5. In your opinion, how successful is the RF President in coping with challenging issues?*, as a percentage of the number of respondents

Indicator

2007

2011

2012

2013

June 2013

Aug. 2013

Oct.

2013

Dec. 2013

Feb. 2014

Apr. 2014

Average for the last 6 surveys

Dynamics (+/-), the last 6 surveys in comparison with

2012

2011

2007

Strengthening Russia’s international standing

Successful

58.4

46.2

43.1

45.7

41.7

45.3

47.7

47.5

45.9

48.6

46.1

+3

0

-12

Unsuccessful

24.9

33.7

37.9

36.2

37.1

36.4

33.7

35.8

35.7

35.5

35.7

-2

+2

+11

Index of success

133.5

112.5

105.2

109.5

104.6

108.9

114.0

111.7

110.2

113.1

110.4

+5

-2

-23

Imposing order in the country

Successful

53.2

36.6

35.4

39.4

35.1

39.9

41.7

44.5

42.7

46.7

41.8

+6

+5

-11

Unsuccessful

34.0

50.0

50.7

47.5

49.9

46.7

46.7

45.5

43.7

40.9

45.6

-5

-4

+12

Index of success

119.2

86.6

84.7

91.9

85.2

93.2

95.0

99.0

99.0

105.8

96.2

+12

+10

-23

Protecting democracy and strengthening the citizens’ freedoms

Successful

44.4

32.4

28.8

31.8

29.1

34.7

33.5

32.8

32.3

36.3

33.1

+4

+1

-11

Unsuccessful

37.0

48.3

52.3

51.0

50.0

48.5

50.9

51.6

50.1

48.7

50.0

-2

+2

+13

Index of success

107.4

84.1

76.5

80.8

79.1

86.2

82.6

81.2

82.2

87.6

83.2

+7

-1

-24

Economic recovery and increase in the citizens’ welfare

Successful

47.2

30.7

28.5

31.3

28.2

32.6

31.9

32.6

31.5

34.9

32.0

+4

+1

-15

Unsuccessful

39.1

56.1

57.9

56.8

56.7

53.4

57.7

59.7

57.1

54.3

56.5

-1

0

+17

Index of success

108.1

74.6

70.6

74.5

71.5

79.2

74.2

72.9

74.4

80.6

75.5

+5

+1

-33

* Ranked according to the average value of the indicator for the last 6 surveys.

From February to April 2014 the share of the Oblast residents, who positively characterize their mood has increased (from 65 to 69%). The stock of patience has increased from 77 to 81%.

Table 6. Estimation of social condition (as a percentage of the number of respondents)

Indicator

2007

2011

2012

2013

June 2013

Aug. 2013

Oct.

2013

Dec. 2013

Feb. 2014

Apr. 2014

Average for the last 6 surveys

Dynamics (+/-), the last 6 surveys in comparison with

2012

2011

2007

Mood

Usual condition, good mood

63.6

63.1

67.3

68.6

66.4

68.7

71.5

69.6

65.1

69.3

68.4

+1

+5

+5

Feeling stress, anger, fear, depression

27.8

28.9

27.0

26.2

25.9

26.3

24.0

26.2

27.1

24.9

25.7

-1

-3

-2

Stock of patience

Everything is not so bad; it’s difficult to live, but it’s possible to stand it

74.1

74.8

76.6

79.3

77.8

79.7

81.6

83.1

79.8

81.3

80.6

+4

+6

+7

It’s impossible to bear such plight

13.6

15.3

15.8

14.2

13.7

14.7

12.3

12.0

12.3

11.1

12.7

-3

-3

-1

Social self-identification

The share of people who consider themselves to have average income

48.2

43.1

44.7

43.9

41.9

44.9

45.7

43.7

44.2

43.1

43.9

-1

+1

-4

The share of people who consider themselves to be poor and extremely poor

42.4

44.3

44.5

46.9

48.3

46.8

45.4

46.7

46.9

49.1

47.2

+3

+3

+5

Consumer Sentiment Index

Index value, points

105.9

89.6

91.5

90.3

89.8

91.0

90.4

87.9

91.5

90.3

90.2

-1

+1

-16

As for political preferences of the population, the party “United Russia” retains the leading role in this regard. The level of its support in February – April 2014 was 28–30%, on average for the last 6 surveys – 29%, which approximately corresponds to the level of 2007–2013. The positions of KPRF and LDPR are also stable; they have the support of 11% and 8% of the Oblast residents, respectively. “Just Russia” has become less popular than in 2007–2012: 3% in February – April 2014; the average for the last 6 surveys – 4%; in 2007–2012 – 6-8%. The share of those who believe that no existing party expresses their interests has stabilized at the level of 35%. It is higher than in 2007 and 2012 (18 and 31%, respectively).

Table 7. Which party expresses your interests?, as a percentage of the number of respondents

Party

2007

Election to the RF State Duma 2007, fact

2011

Election to the RF State Duma 2011, fact

2012

2013

June 2013

Aug. 2013

Oct.

2013

Dec. 2013

Feb. 2014

Apr. 2014

Average for the last 6 surveys

Dynamics (+/-), the last 6 surveys in comparison with

2012

2011

2007

United

Russia

30.2

60.5

31.1

33.4

29.1

29.4

31.3

29.6

26.9

29.5

28.3

29.5

29.2

0

-2

-1

KPRF

7.0

9.3

10.3

16.8

10.6

11.3

11.3

12.0

11.9

11.8

10.9

10.7

11.4

+1

+1

+4

LDPR

7.5

11.0

7.8

15.4

7.8

7.2

6.6

6.8

8.4

8.1

8.9

8.3

7.9

0

0

0

Just

Russia

7.8

8.8

5.6

27.2

6.6

4.6

4.7

4.3

4.0

4.4

3.5

3.3

4.0

-3

-2

-4

Other

1.8

1.9

2.1

0.6

2.0

3.4

1.0

0.8

0.4

0.2

1.3

-1

-1

-1

No party

17.8

29.4

31.3

34.9

31.7

33.4

37.3

34.4

35.2

34.8

34.5

+3

+5

+17

It is difficult to answer

21.2

13.2

11.7

10.2

12.3

10.5

10.5

10.9

12.7

13.1

11.7

0

-2

-10

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