Public opinion monitoring of the state of the Russian society
Автор: Ilyin Vladimir Aleksandrovich
Журнал: Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast @volnc-esc-en
Рубрика: From the chief editor
Статья в выпуске: 4 (34) т.7, 2014 года.
Бесплатный доступ
Короткий адрес: https://sciup.org/147223615
IDR: 147223615
Текст обзорной статьи Public opinion monitoring of the state of the Russian society
Despite the fact that international political situation is rather tense (crisis in Ukraine, bilateral sanctions of Russia, and the EU and USA), the assessment of the federal and regional authorities in June – August 2014 did not change. The support of the RF President remains high (66%) as well as that of the Chairman of the RF Government (55%). The nationwide proportion of positive assessments of the President’s activity for the last two months has not changed and amounted to 85% (according to WCIOM).
We recall that the growth in the support of the RF President has been very rapid since the beginning of the year. During the first half of 2014 the approval of V. Putin’s activity as head of state has increased by 22 percentage points in Russia as a whole (from 64 to 86%) and by 11 percentage points in the Vologda Oblast (from 56 to 67%). The nationwide support of the President in 2007 was higher than that in the region by 6 p.p. (81 and 75%, respectively), and in August 2014 – by 19 p.p. (85% and 66%, respectively). This is largely due to regional specifics: drastic consequences of the 2008 global financial crisis for the Vologda Oblast, and the change of the leadership in the RF subject at the end of 2011.
The performance of the Vologda Oblast Governor is approved at a somewhat lower level (39%). It should be noted that the support of the Vologda Oblast Governor stabilized after a long decline in October 2013 – June 2014 (the percentage of positive assessments during this time has decreased from 46 to 39%). Apparently, the fact that the support of the region’s head in August 2014 remains at the level of June is connected with the upcoming elections of heads of the Subjects of Federation (September 14, 2014 will be the single day of voting), and also with O. Kuvshinnikov’s statements about the readiness of the region’s economy to function effectively under the sanctions.
How do you assess the current performance of..? (as a percentage of the number of respondents)
|
Indicator |
2007* |
2011* |
2013* |
Oct. 2013 |
Dec. 2013 |
Feb. 2014 |
Apr. 2014 |
June 2014 |
Aug. 2014 |
Average for the last 6 surveys |
Dynamics (+/-), the last 6 surveys in comparison with |
||
|
2013 |
2011 |
2007 |
|||||||||||
|
RF President |
|||||||||||||
|
I approve |
75.3 |
58.7 |
55.3 |
54.3 |
57.3 |
56.1 |
62.8 |
66.6 |
66.4 |
60.6 |
+5 |
+2 |
-15 |
|
I do not approve |
11.5 |
25.6 |
29.4 |
28.7 |
28.9 |
29.3 |
25.4 |
21.8 |
19.3 |
25.6 |
-4 |
0 |
+14 |
|
Chairman of the RF Government* |
|||||||||||||
|
I approve |
- |
59.3 |
48.9 |
49.0 |
51.1 |
49.3 |
52.5 |
55.8 |
55.2 |
52.2 |
+3 |
-7 |
- |
|
I do not approve |
- |
24.7 |
32.8 |
30.6 |
32.5 |
32.9 |
30.9 |
26.4 |
26.8 |
30.0 |
-3 |
+5 |
- |
|
Governor |
|||||||||||||
|
I approve |
55.8 |
45.7 |
44.4 |
45.9 |
44.1 |
42.8 |
41.6 |
38.5 |
38.8 |
42.0 |
-2 |
-4 |
-14 |
|
I do not approve |
22.2 |
30.5 |
33.2 |
32.4 |
35.3 |
36.9 |
39.0 |
40.9 |
40.1 |
37.4 |
+4 |
+7 |
+15 |
|
* included into the survey since 2008 |
|||||||||||||
For the last two months there has been a decline in the share of the oblast residents, who think that the President’s performance is successful in strengthening Russia’s international standing (from 54 to 51%), in imposing order in the country (from 50 to 48%), in the protection of democracy and strengthening freedoms of citizens (from 40 to 38%). The level of approval of the President’s work in the direction of economic recovery and enhancement of citizens’ welfare did not change significantly in June – August 2014 (35–36%). No positive changes in the assessment of the RF President’s performance in coping with key problems of the country are observed for the first time since the beginning of the year. However, it should be noted that, in spite of the tense political situation in the country and abroad, there is no significant deterioration in the public opinion.
In your opinion, how successful is the RF President in coping with challenging issues?* (as a percentage of the number of respondents)
|
Indicator |
2007 |
2011 |
2013 |
Oct. 2013 |
Dec. 2013 |
Feb. 2014 |
Apr. 2014 |
June 2014 |
Aug. 2014 |
Average for the last 6 surveys |
Dynamics (+/-), the last 6 surveys in comparison with |
||
|
2013 |
2011 |
2007 |
|||||||||||
|
Strengthening Russia’s international standing |
|||||||||||||
|
Successful |
58.4 |
46.2 |
45.7 |
47.7 |
47.5 |
45.9 |
48.6 |
53.7 |
50.9 |
49.1 |
+3 |
+3 |
-9 |
|
Unsuccessful |
24.9 |
33.7 |
36.2 |
33.7 |
35.8 |
35.7 |
35.5 |
31.7 |
30.0 |
33.7 |
-3 |
0 |
+9 |
|
Index of success |
133.5 |
112.5 |
109.5 |
114.0 |
111.7 |
110.2 |
113.1 |
122.0 |
120.9 |
115.3 |
+6 |
+3 |
-18 |
|
Imposing order in the country |
|||||||||||||
|
Successful |
53.2 |
36.6 |
39.4 |
41.7 |
44.5 |
42.7 |
46.7 |
49.5 |
47.5 |
45.4 |
+6 |
+9 |
-8 |
|
Unsuccessful |
34.0 |
50.0 |
47.5 |
46.7 |
45.5 |
43.7 |
40.9 |
39.5 |
37.8 |
42.4 |
-5 |
-8 |
+8 |
|
Index of success |
119.2 |
86.6 |
91.9 |
95.0 |
99.0 |
99.0 |
105.8 |
110.0 |
109.7 |
103.1 |
+11 |
+17 |
-16 |
|
Protecting democracy and strengthening the citizens’ freedoms |
|||||||||||||
|
Successful |
44.4 |
32.4 |
31.8 |
33.5 |
32.8 |
32.3 |
36.3 |
40.1 |
37.6 |
35.4 |
+4 |
+3 |
-9 |
|
Unsuccessful |
37.0 |
48.3 |
51.0 |
50.9 |
51.6 |
50.1 |
48.7 |
43.9 |
43.7 |
48.2 |
-3 |
0 |
+11 |
|
Index of success |
107.4 |
84.1 |
80.8 |
82.6 |
81.2 |
82.2 |
87.6 |
96.2 |
93.9 |
87.3 |
+7 |
+3 |
-20 |
|
Economic recovery and increase in the citizens’ welfare |
|||||||||||||
|
Successful |
47.2 |
30.7 |
31.3 |
31.9 |
32.6 |
31.5 |
34.9 |
35.8 |
35.1 |
33.6 |
+2 |
+3 |
-14 |
|
Unsuccessful |
39.1 |
56.1 |
56.8 |
57.7 |
59.7 |
57.1 |
54.3 |
53.5 |
50.2 |
55.4 |
-1 |
-1 |
+16 |
|
Index of success |
108.1 |
74.6 |
74.5 |
74.2 |
72.9 |
74.4 |
80.6 |
82.3 |
84.9 |
78.2 |
+4 |
+4 |
-30 |
|
* Ranked according to the average value of the index of success for the last 6 surveys. |
|||||||||||||
As for the people’s opinion concerning political parties, the party “United Russia” remains the leader. In June – August the level of its support did not change significantly (33–34%). The ratings of other parties are also stable: KPRF – 9%, LDPR – 7%, Just Russia – 4%. For the last two months there have been virtually no changes in the share of the oblast residents, who find it difficult to choose a political power that expresses their interests (11–12%).
In the course of 2014 there has been a steady increase in the people’s support of United Russia (from February to June – from 28 to 34%). The positions of the rest of the parties from the beginning of the year do not change.
Which party expresses your interests? (as a percentage of the number of respondents)
|
Party |
2007 |
Election to the RF State Duma 2007, fact |
2011 |
Election to the RF State Duma 2011, fact |
2013 |
Oct. 2013 |
Dec. 2013 |
Feb. 2014 |
Apr. 2014 |
June 2014 |
Aug. 2014 |
Average for the last 6 surveys |
Dynamics (+/-), the last 6 surveys in comparison with |
||
|
2013 |
2011 |
2007 |
|||||||||||||
|
United Russia |
30.2 |
60.5 |
31.1 |
33.4 |
29.4 |
26.9 |
29.5 |
28.3 |
29.5 |
32.7 |
34.3 |
30.2 |
+1 |
-1 |
0 |
|
KPRF |
7.0 |
9.3 |
10.3 |
16.8 |
11.3 |
11.9 |
11.8 |
10.9 |
10.7 |
9.8 |
9.1 |
10.7 |
-1 |
0 |
+4 |
|
LDPR |
7.5 |
11.0 |
7.8 |
15.4 |
7.2 |
8.4 |
8.1 |
8.9 |
8.3 |
6.2 |
6.9 |
7.8 |
+1 |
0 |
0 |
|
Just Russia |
7.8 |
8.8 |
5.6 |
27.2 |
4.6 |
4.0 |
4.4 |
3.5 |
3.3 |
3.3 |
3.7 |
3.7 |
-1 |
-2 |
-4 |
|
Other |
1.8 |
– |
1.9 |
– |
0.6 |
1.0 |
0.8 |
0.4 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.4 |
0 |
-2 |
-1 |
|
No party |
17.8 |
– |
29.4 |
– |
34.9 |
37.3 |
34.4 |
35.2 |
34.8 |
36.0 |
35.0 |
35.5 |
+1 |
+6 |
+18 |
|
It is difficult to answer |
21.2 |
– |
13.2 |
– |
10.2 |
10.5 |
10.9 |
12.7 |
13.1 |
11.8 |
10.9 |
11.7 |
+2 |
-2 |
-10 |
The indicators of social condition have remained stable since April 2014: the share of positive assessments of social mood is 71%, the share of positive assessments of the stock of patience in 81–83%.
Since December 2013 the social self-identification of the population has not changed significantly: the proportion of the oblast residents who consider themselves “people of average income” is 42–44%, the share of those who consider themselves to be “poor and extremely poor” is 47–50%.
At the same time, despite stable assessments of the social condition of the population, August 2014, compared with June, witnessed a noticeable decrease in the index of consumer sentiment (from 91 to 87 p.), which indicates the decrease in consumer activity in the region. More likely, it is due to the tense economic situation in the region associated with the debt burden of the regional budget, as well as the uncertainty of the population about the consequences of Russia’s sanctions (mainly, the ban on the delivery of a number of key food products (beef, pork, vegetables, fruits, poultry, fish, seafood, cheese, milk and dairy products) from Australia, Canada, Norway, the USA and EU countries) for the consumer market.
Estimation of social condition (as a percentage of the number of respondents)
|
Indicator |
2007 |
2011 |
2013 |
Oct. 2013 |
Dec. 2013 |
Feb. 2014 |
Apr. 2014 |
June 2014 |
Aug. 2014 |
Average for the last 6 surveys |
Dynamics (+/-), the last 6 surveys in comparison with |
||
|
2013 |
2011 |
2007 |
|||||||||||
|
Mood |
|||||||||||||
|
Usual condition, good mood |
63.6 |
63.1 |
68.6 |
71.5 |
69.6 |
65.1 |
69.3 |
71.1 |
70.5 |
69.5 |
+1 |
+6 |
+6 |
|
Feeling stress, anger, fear, depression |
27.8 |
28.9 |
26.2 |
24.0 |
26.2 |
27.1 |
24.9 |
23.7 |
25.1 |
25.2 |
-1 |
-4 |
-3 |
|
Stock of patience |
|||||||||||||
|
Everything is not so bad; it’s difficult to live, but it’s possible to stand it |
74.1 |
74.8 |
79.3 |
81.6 |
83.1 |
79.8 |
81.3 |
81.0 |
82.5 |
81.6 |
+2 |
+7 |
+8 |
|
It’s impossible to bear such plight |
13.6 |
15.3 |
14.2 |
12.3 |
12.0 |
12.3 |
11.1 |
13.4 |
12.8 |
12.3 |
-2 |
-3 |
-1 |
|
Social self-identification |
|||||||||||||
|
The share of people who consider themselves to have average income |
48.2 |
43.1 |
43.9 |
45.7 |
43.7 |
44.2 |
43.1 |
42.0 |
44.1 |
43.8 |
0 |
+1 |
-4 |
|
The share of people who consider themselves to be poor and extremely poor |
42.4 |
44.3 |
46.9 |
45.4 |
46.7 |
46.9 |
49.1 |
48.4 |
49.6 |
47.7 |
+1 |
+3 |
+5 |
|
Consumer sentiment index |
|||||||||||||
|
Index value, points |
105.9 |
89.6 |
90.3 |
90.4 |
87.9 |
91.5 |
90.3 |
90.5 |
87.1 |
89.6 |
-1 |
0 |
-16 |
Assessment of the events in Ukraine
Most of the Vologda Oblast residents approve of the policy of Russia toward Ukraine. Their share has slightly increased in June – August 2014 (from 65 to 67%). 10% of the region’s population has the opposite opinion.
For the last two months, the support of Russia’s policy in relation to the events in Ukraine has increased in the majority of the socio-demographic groups, especially among women (from 64 to 69%), people aged under 30 (from 61 to 67%), persons with secondary vocational education (from 60 to 69%), also among 20% of the poorest (from 43 to 48%), and the residents of Cherepovets (from 73 to 77%).
Do you support Russia’s policy concerning the events in Ukraine? (as a percentage of the number of respondents)
|
Categories of population |
I support |
I do not support |
||
|
June 2014 |
August 2014 |
June 2014 |
August 2014 |
|
|
Sex |
||||
|
Men |
66.4 |
64.0 |
11.0 |
13.0 |
|
Women |
63.8 |
68.5 |
9.2 |
8.2 |
|
Age |
||||
|
Under 30 |
61.0 |
67.0 |
6.9 |
8.5 |
|
30–55 |
65.2 |
66.3 |
10.6 |
11.2 |
|
Over 5 |
67.5 |
66.4 |
11.3 |
10.3 |
|
Education |
||||
|
Secondary and incomplete secondary |
61.5 |
58.5 |
9.2 |
12.7 |
|
Secondary vocational |
59.6 |
68.9 |
12.1 |
10.6 |
|
Higher and incomplete higher |
74.0 |
72.7 |
8.9 |
7.5 |
|
Income groups |
||||
|
20% of the poorest people |
42.5 |
47.8 |
18.7 |
16.4 |
|
60% of the people with middle-sized income |
68.1 |
69.3 |
8.9 |
10.3 |
|
220% of the most prosperous people |
83.9 |
80.2 |
5.1 |
5.6 |
|
Territories |
||||
|
Vologda |
72.6 |
71.9 |
5.5 |
9.0 |
|
Cherepovets |
72.9 |
77.0 |
8.5 |
7.1 |
|
Districts |
56.5 |
57.6 |
13.2 |
12.8 |
|
Oblast |
65.0 |
66.5 |
10.0 |
10.3 |
Over the past two months, the proportion of people, who learn about the Ukrainian events from TV programs, has increased from 80 to 87% in the Vologda Oblast and from 91 to 94% nationwide. 29% of the region’s residents get the information about the development of the Ukrainian conflict from friends, relatives and neighbors. This is higher than in June (24%), and, in general, corresponds to the national average level (27%).
The region’s residents get the information about the events in Ukraine from online newspapers and social networks on the Internet significantly more often than the residents nationwide (22% – in the Vologda Oblast, 11% – in Russia).
The proportion of the oblast residents, who are not interested in the development of the situation in Ukraine, decreased noticeably for the period from June to August 2014 (from 14 to 8%), but it remains higher than the national average value (1%).
What are your main sources of information concerning the events in Ukraine and the Crimea?* (several answer options; as a percentage of the number of respondents)
|
Answer option |
ISEDT RAS |
Levada Center |
||
|
June 2014 |
August 2014 |
June 2014 |
August 2014 |
|
|
TV |
79.5 |
87.0 |
91 |
94 |
|
Friends, relatives, neighbors |
24.0 |
28.5 |
26 |
27 |
|
Newspapers |
27.9 |
21.8 |
9 |
11 |
|
Web-based social networking services |
24.1 |
21.5 |
10 |
11 |
|
Internet media (newspapers, magazines, information portals) |
13.6 |
14.7 |
17 |
18 |
|
Radio |
14.9 |
11.9 |
11 |
15 |
|
Periodicals |
4.5 |
2.6 |
2 |
2 |
|
Other |
0.1 |
0.3 |
1 |
1 |
|
I am not interested in it |
13.9 |
7.5 |
1 |
1 |
|
* In order of prevalence in the Vologda Oblast according to the data as of August 2014. |
||||
In comparison with June, in August the proportion of the oblast residents, who believe that the federal media are objective in their coverage of the events in Ukraine, increased (from 56 to 58%). In Russia as a whole, the share of those, who think the same, decreased slightly (from 79 to 74%).
More than half of the oblast residents believe that the foreign media provide biased information about the development of the Ukrainian conflict. The proportion of those, who support this opinion, increased in June – August 2014 from 52 to 60%. This viewpoint is shared by 64% of the population nationwide (as of June 2014).
In your opinion, how impartial are the following mass media when covering the events in Ukraine and the Crimea? (as a percentage of the number of respondents)
|
Answer option |
ISEDT RAS |
Levada Center |
||
|
June 2014 |
August 2014 |
June 2014 |
August 2014 |
|
|
Federal Russian mass media |
||||
|
On the whole and mostly impartial |
56.2 |
57.6 |
79 |
74 |
|
Not very impartial, completely biased |
26.8 |
25.4 |
14 |
17 |
|
Index, points |
129.4 |
132.2 |
165 |
157 |
|
It is difficult to answer |
17.0 |
17.0 |
7 |
10 |
|
Foreign mass media* |
||||
|
On the whole and mostly impartial |
22.4 |
18.1 |
18 |
n.a. |
|
Not very impartial, completely biased |
52.3 |
59.7 |
64 |
n.a. |
|
Index, points |
70.1 |
58.4 |
54 |
n.a. |
|
It is difficult to answer |
25.3 |
22.2 |
18 |
n.a. |
|
* In July 2014 Levada Center did not ask the question concerning the impartiality of the foreign media in covering the events in Ukraine. |
||||
Conclusion
The results of the surveys conducted in August 2014 show that the level of approval of the performance of Russian President (66%) and the federal authorities remains high, despite the tense situation on the international political arena. The role of economic factors in shaping public opinion is still crucial even under the conditions of bilateral sanctions (for example, according to WCIOM, 95% of Russians do not feel the impact of sanctions, although only 13% of the population have not heard about them).
The approval of Russia’s policy in relation to the events in Ukraine continues to grow on the regional level (65–67%), as well as the support of the federal mass media in covering issues related to the development of the “Ukrainian conflict” (56–58%). Assessment of the Governor’s performance for the last two months has not changed (the approval level is 39%), which, apparently, is connected with the upcoming election of heads of regions on September 14.
In August 2014, compared with June, consumer activism somewhat declined (the index decreased from 91 to 87 p.), however this has not affected the positive assessments of social mood (71%) and stock of patience (83%), which, as before, prevail over negative judgments (25 and 13%, respectively).
