Public opinion monitoring of the state of the Russian society
Автор: Ilyin Vladimir Aleksandrovich
Журнал: Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast @volnc-esc-en
Рубрика: From the chief editor
Статья в выпуске: 6 (36) т.7, 2014 года.
Бесплатный доступ
Короткий адрес: https://sciup.org/147223666
IDR: 147223666
Текст обзорной статьи Public opinion monitoring of the state of the Russian society
In October – December 2014 the United States and its European partners increased their economic and political pressure on Russia in connection with our country’s position on the events in Ukraine. Under the circumstances, Russia’s authorities have boosted the implementation of measures aimed to strengthen the sovereignty of our country, to ensure its decent geopolitical standing, and to overcome complications in the economy, in financial and banking sector and in social sphere. The consolidation of the Russian society is increasing under the current conditions. This is proved by the results of public opinion monitoring in the Vologda Oblast.
Despite the aggravation of the external and internal situation in Russia, the assessment of the performance of the federal authorities in the period from October 2014 to December 2014 remains high. The level of support of the President of the Russian Federation by Vologda Oblast residents is in the range of 66–67%, the level of support of the Chairman of the RF Government is 56%.
For reference: according to VTSIOM (for the first half of December 2014) the nationwide level of approval of the performance of the RF President is 85%, the proportion of negative estimates is 8%.
On average for 2014 compared to 2013 the levels of approval of the performance of the President and the Government have increased (from 55 to 64% and from 49 to 54%, respectively). The performance of the Vologda Oblast Governor is approved by 40% of respondents on average for 2014 (in 2013 – 44%), the share of those who do not approve of his performance has decreased over the past two months from 40 to 37%.
How do you assess the current performance of..? (as a percentage of the number of respondents)
|
Answer option |
2007 |
2011 |
2013 |
2014 |
Feb. 2014 |
Apr. 2014 |
June 2014 |
Aug. 2014 |
Оct. 2014 |
Dec. 2014 |
Dynamics (+/-), 2014 in comparison to... |
||
|
2013 |
2011 |
2007 |
|||||||||||
|
RF President |
|||||||||||||
|
I approve |
75.3 |
58.7 |
55.3 |
64.1 |
56.1 |
62.8 |
66.6 |
66.4 |
66.8 |
66.0 |
+9 |
+5 |
-11 |
|
I do not approve |
11.5 |
25.6 |
29.4 |
22.3 |
29.3 |
25.4 |
21.8 |
19.3 |
18.5 |
19.7 |
-7 |
-3 |
+11 |
|
Chairman of the RF Government * |
|||||||||||||
|
I approve |
- |
59.3 |
48.9 |
54.2 |
49.3 |
52.5 |
55.8 |
55.2 |
56.2 |
56.3 |
+5 |
-5 |
- |
|
I do not approve |
- |
24.7 |
32.8 |
27.6 |
32.9 |
30.9 |
26.4 |
26.8 |
23.9 |
24.7 |
-5 |
+3 |
- |
|
Governor |
|||||||||||||
|
I approve |
55.8 |
45.7 |
44.4 |
40.1 |
42.8 |
41.6 |
38.5 |
38.8 |
39.7 |
39.3 |
-4 |
-6 |
-16 |
|
I do not approve |
22.2 |
30.5 |
33.2 |
38.9 |
36.9 |
39.0 |
40.9 |
40.1 |
39.6 |
37.0 |
+6 |
+8 |
+17 |
|
* Included into the survey since 2008. |
|||||||||||||
The last two months witnessed an increase in the proportion of the oblast residents who believe that the President of the Russian Federation is successful in coping with key issues such as imposing order in the country (increase from 49 to 52%), protection of democracy and strengthening the freedoms of citizens (from 38 to 41%), as well as economic recovery and increase in the citizens’ welfare (from 34 to 38%). Public opinion concerning the President’s efforts to strengthen the international position of Russia remains stable: the proportion of positive views is 51–52%, negative – 30–31%.
The assessments of all the parameters on average for 2014 are more positive than in 2013.
Which party expresses your interests? (as a percentage of the number of respondents)
|
Answer option |
2007 |
2011 |
2013 |
2014 |
Feb. 2014 |
Apr. 2014 |
June 2014 |
Aug. 2014 |
Оct. 2014 |
Dec. 2014 |
Dynamics (+/-), 2014 in comparison to... |
||
|
2013 |
2011 |
2007 |
|||||||||||
|
Strengthening Russia’s international standing |
|||||||||||||
|
Successful |
58.4 |
46.2 |
45.7 |
50.4 |
45.9 |
48.6 |
53.7 |
50.9 |
52.3 |
50.8 |
+5 |
+4 |
-8 |
|
Unsuccessful |
24.9 |
33.7 |
36.2 |
32.4 |
35.7 |
35.5 |
31.7 |
30.0 |
31.0 |
30.3 |
-4 |
-1 |
+8 |
|
Index of success |
133.5 |
112.5 |
109.5 |
118.0 |
110.2 |
113.1 |
122.0 |
120.9 |
121.3 |
120.5 |
+9 |
+6 |
-16 |
|
Imposing order in the country |
|||||||||||||
|
Successful |
53.2 |
36.6 |
39.4 |
48.0 |
42.7 |
46.7 |
49.5 |
47.5 |
49.4 |
52.1 |
+9 |
+11 |
-5 |
|
Unsuccessful |
34.0 |
50.0 |
47.5 |
39.1 |
43.7 |
40.9 |
39.5 |
37.8 |
37.8 |
35.1 |
-8 |
-11 |
+5 |
|
Index of success |
119.2 |
86.6 |
91.9 |
108.9 |
99.0 |
105.8 |
110.0 |
109.7 |
111.6 |
117.0 |
+17 |
+22 |
-10 |
|
Protecting democracy and strengthening the citizens’ freedoms |
|||||||||||||
|
Successful |
44.4 |
32.4 |
31.8 |
37.5 |
32.3 |
36.3 |
40.1 |
37.6 |
38.2 |
40.7 |
+6 |
+5 |
-7 |
|
Unsuccessful |
37.0 |
48.3 |
51.0 |
45.4 |
50.1 |
48.7 |
43.9 |
43.7 |
44.3 |
41.9 |
-6 |
-3 |
+8 |
|
Index of success |
107.4 |
84.1 |
80.8 |
92.1 |
82.2 |
87.6 |
96.2 |
93.9 |
93.9 |
98.8 |
+11 |
+8 |
-15 |
|
Economic recovery and increase in the citizens’ welfare |
|||||||||||||
|
Successful |
47.2 |
30.7 |
31.3 |
34.8 |
31.5 |
34.9 |
35.8 |
35.1 |
33.9 |
37.6 |
+4 |
+4 |
-12 |
|
Unsuccessful |
39.1 |
56.1 |
56.8 |
53.4 |
57.1 |
54.3 |
53.5 |
50.2 |
54.4 |
50.8 |
-3 |
-3 |
+14 |
|
Index of success |
108.1 |
74.6 |
74.5 |
81.4 |
74.4 |
80.6 |
82.3 |
84.9 |
79.5 |
86.8 |
+7 |
+7 |
-27 |
* Ranked according to the average value of the index of success for the last 6 surveys.
The structure of the Russians’ preferences concerning political parties has not changed significantly over the past two months. The “United Russia” remains leader – the proportion of the oblast residents who believe that this party expresses their interests is 36–37%. Support for the KPRF is 8–9%, for the LDPR – 7–8%, for the “Just Russia” – 3–4%.
In 2014 compared to 2013 the share of supporters of the “United Russia” increased slightly (from 29 to 33%). The positions of the rest of parliamentary parties remain stable.
Which party expresses your interests? (as a percentage of the number of respondents)
|
Party |
2007 |
Election to the RF State Duma 2007, fact |
2011 |
Election to the RF State Duma 2011, fact |
2013 |
2014 |
Feb. 2014 |
Apr. 2014 |
June 2014 |
Aug. 2014 |
Оct. 2014 |
Dec. 2014 |
Dynamics (+/-), 2014 in comparison to... |
||
|
2013 |
2011 |
2007 |
|||||||||||||
|
United Russia |
30.2 |
60.5 |
31.1 |
33.4 |
29.4 |
32.8 |
28.3 |
29.5 |
32.7 |
34.3 |
35.5 |
36.7 |
+3 |
+2 |
+3 |
|
KPRF |
7.0 |
9.3 |
10.3 |
16.8 |
11.3 |
9.7 |
10.9 |
10.7 |
9.8 |
9.1 |
9.3 |
8.3 |
-2 |
-1 |
+3 |
|
LDPR |
7.5 |
11.0 |
7.8 |
15.4 |
7.2 |
7.6 |
8.9 |
8.3 |
6.2 |
6.9 |
7.3 |
7.8 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
|
Just Russia |
7.8 |
8.8 |
5.6 |
27.2 |
4.6 |
3.5 |
3.5 |
3.3 |
3.3 |
3.7 |
3.9 |
3.2 |
-1 |
-2 |
-4 |
|
Other |
1.8 |
– |
1.9 |
– |
0.6 |
0.3 |
0.4 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.7 |
0.1 |
0 |
-2 |
-2 |
|
No party |
17.8 |
– |
29.4 |
– |
34.9 |
34.4 |
35.2 |
34.8 |
36.0 |
35.0 |
32.6 |
32.7 |
-1 |
+5 |
+17 |
|
It is difficult to answer |
21.2 |
– |
13.2 |
– |
10.2 |
11.7 |
12.7 |
13.1 |
11.8 |
10.9 |
10.7 |
11.1 |
+2 |
-2 |
-10 |
The characteristics of social sentiment and stock of patience for the last two months have not changed substantially. The share of the oblast residents who assess their mood as “good and normal” is 69–71%; the share of those who believe that “everything is not so bad; it’s difficult to live, but it’s possible to stand it” is 80%.
In December 2014, compared with October 2014, the structure of social self-identification of the population somewhat deteriorated: there was a reduction in the proportion of the oblast residents who consider themselves people with average incomes (from 44 to 42%) and an increase in the share of those who consider themselves “poor” and “extremely poor” (from 49 to 51%).
The consumer sentiment index for the period from February 2014 to December 2014 has declined by 10 points (from 92 to 82 p.). And this is understandable: according to Vologdastat, in the period from January to November 2014 the general price increase was 8.1%, food prices increased by 12.2%, prices for non-food products – by 5.3%, for services – by 8.1%.
Estimation of social condition as a percentage of the number of respondents)
|
Answer option |
2007 |
2011 |
2013 |
2014 |
Feb. 2014 |
Apr. 2014 |
June 2014 |
Aug. 2014 |
Оct. 2014 |
Dec. 2014 |
Dynamics (+/-), 2014 in comparison to... |
||
|
2013 |
2011 |
2007 |
|||||||||||
|
Mood |
|||||||||||||
|
Usual condition, good mood |
63.6 |
63.1 |
68.6 |
69.4 |
65.1 |
69.3 |
71.1 |
70.5 |
69.3 |
70.9 |
+1 |
+6 |
+6 |
|
I feel stress, anger, fear, depression |
27.8 |
28.9 |
26.2 |
24.9 |
27.1 |
24.9 |
23.7 |
25.1 |
24.6 |
24.1 |
-1 |
-4 |
-3 |
|
Stock of patience |
|||||||||||||
|
Everything is not so bad; it’s difficult to live, but it’s possible to stand it |
74.1 |
74.8 |
79.3 |
80.8 |
79.8 |
81.3 |
81.0 |
82.5 |
80.3 |
80.0 |
+2 |
+6 |
+7 |
|
It’s impossible to bear such plight |
13.6 |
15.3 |
14.2 |
12.6 |
12.3 |
11.1 |
13.4 |
12.8 |
12.1 |
13.6 |
-2 |
-3 |
-1 |
|
Social self-identification |
|||||||||||||
|
The share of people who consider themselves to have average income |
48.2 |
43.1 |
43.9 |
43.2 |
44.2 |
43.1 |
42.0 |
44.1 |
43.5 |
42.3 |
-1 |
0 |
-5 |
|
The share of people who consider themselves to be poor and extremely poor |
42.4 |
44.3 |
46.9 |
49.1 |
46.9 |
49.1 |
48.4 |
49.6 |
49.3 |
51.0 |
+2 |
+5 |
+7 |
|
Consumer sentiment index |
|||||||||||||
|
Index value, points |
105.9 |
89.6 |
90.3 |
87.6 |
91.5 |
90.3 |
90.5 |
87.1 |
84.0 |
82.3 |
-3 |
-2 |
-18 |
Attitude of the population toward the anti-Russian sanctions imposed by the USA and the EU countries and toward Russia’s response to these actions
In October – December 2014 the public opinion monitoring was supplemented by a special block of questions aimed to assess the degree of the oblast residents’ awareness of the antiRussian sanctions imposed by the U.S. and EU countries and Russia’s response thereto, and how this, in their opinion, can affect the development of economic situation in the country and the region.
The survey results show that the vast majority of the Vologda Oblast residents know about the existence of economic sanctions imposed by the U.S. and EU against Russia and about the response of the Russian Federation (81 and 85%, respectively). The share of those who believe that they are well aware of the economic sanctions against Russia has increased from 41 to 44% over the last two months; the share of those who have only a general idea about them has decreased from 43 to 38%.
The proportion of those who are well aware of the response of the Russian Federation on the anti-Russian sanctions imposed by the U.S. and EU countries and the share of those who have only a general idea about that remains unchanged (41–42% and 43–44%, respectively).
People’s awareness of the U.S. and EU sanctions against Russia and of Russia’s response to these actions (as a percentage of the number of respondents)
|
Answer option |
Vologda |
Cherepovets |
Districts |
Oblast |
||||||||
|
Оct. 2014 |
Dec. 2014 |
Dynamics (+ - ), Oct. 2014 to Dec. 2014 |
Оct. 2014 |
Dec. 2014 |
Dynamics (+ - ), Oct. 2014 to Dec. 2014 |
Оct. 2014 |
Dec. 2014 |
Dynamics (+ - ), Oct. 2014 to Dec. 2014 |
Оct. 2014 |
Dec. 2014 |
Dynamics (+ - ), Oct. 2014 to Dec. 2014 |
|
|
In connection with the conflict in Ukraine some countries have introduced sanctions against Russia in recent months. Did you know that? |
||||||||||||
|
I am well aware of that |
56.3 |
55.8 |
-1 |
61.0 |
55.6 |
-5 |
21.7 |
30.6 |
+9 |
41.1 |
43.7 |
+3 |
|
I hear something, but I don’t know the details |
33.1 |
32.9 |
0 |
32.3 |
35.4 |
+3 |
53.9 |
41.4 |
-13 |
42.8 |
37.6 |
-5 |
|
I hear about this for the first time |
2.0 |
3.3 |
+1 |
3.1 |
1.3 |
-2 |
7.8 |
8.3 |
+1 |
5.1 |
5.1 |
0 |
|
It is difficult to answer |
8.6 |
8.0 |
-1 |
3.6 |
7.8 |
+4 |
16.5 |
19.7 |
+3 |
11.1 |
13.5 |
+2 |
|
The Russian Government has imposed a one-year ban on the importation into Russia of agricultural products, raw materials and foodstuffs from the countries that have imposed sanctions against our country. Did you know that? |
||||||||||||
|
I am well aware of that |
54.5 |
55.0 |
+1 |
63.1 |
58.3 |
-5 |
21.6 |
26.2 |
+5 |
41.1 |
42.1 |
+1 |
|
I hear something, but I don’t know the details |
35.1 |
35.7 |
+1 |
30.5 |
34.1 |
+4 |
56.2 |
51.0 |
-5 |
43.9 |
42.6 |
-1 |
|
I hear about this for the first time |
3.5 |
2.8 |
-1 |
2.8 |
2.8 |
0 |
7.7 |
6.2 |
-2 |
5.3 |
4.4 |
-1 |
|
It is difficult to answer |
6.8 |
6.4 |
0 |
3.6 |
4.8 |
+1 |
14.6 |
16.6 |
+2 |
9.7 |
10.9 |
+1 |
In December 2014, as in the previous assessment period, the proportion of those who find it difficult to assess the impact of U.S. and EU sanctions on the economy of Russia and the Vologda Oblast, became significantly higher than the proportion of optimistic and pessimistic forecasts (29% vs. 24% and 30% vs. 20–21%, respectively). The share of positive and negative opinions in this respect was approximately equal.
In October – December 2014 there was an increase in the amount of negative assessments of the effects of the U.S. and EU sanctions for the economy of Russia and the oblast (the share of pessimistic reviews increased from 20 to 24% and from 17% to 20%, respectively).
Opinion of the population about the consequences of the sanctions imposed by the USA and the EU for the Russian economy and the Vologda Oblast economy (as a percentage of the number of respondents)
|
Answer option |
Vologda |
Cherepovets |
Districts |
Oblast |
||||||||
|
Оct. 2014 |
Dec. 2014 |
Dynamics (+ - ), Oct. 2014 to Dec. 2014 |
Оct. 2014 |
Dec. 2014 |
Dynamics (+ - ), Oct. 2014 to Dec. 2014 |
Оct. 2014 |
Dec. 2014 |
Dynamics (+ - ), Oct. 2014 to Dec. 2014 |
Оct. 2014 |
Dec. 2014 |
Dynamics (+ - ), Oct. 2014 to Dec. 2014 |
|
|
In your opinion, how will the sanctions imposed by foreign countries affect Russia’s economy? |
||||||||||||
|
The sanctions will have a positive effect, they will improve the situation |
26.5 |
26.2 |
0 |
24.4 |
20.5 |
-4 |
26.8 |
25.3 |
-2 |
26.1 |
24.3 |
-2 |
|
The sanctions will have a negative effect, they will aggravate the situation |
28.0 |
31.4 |
+3 |
30.8 |
44.7 |
+14 |
9.9 |
9.4 |
-1 |
20.1 |
24.4 |
+4 |
|
Nothing will change, everything will remain as it has been |
17.2 |
21.6 |
+5 |
20.5 |
15.7 |
-5 |
25.8 |
27.3 |
+2 |
22.1 |
22.7 |
+1 |
|
It is difficult to answer |
28.3 |
20.8 |
-8 |
24.4 |
19.2 |
-5 |
37.5 |
38.0 |
+1 |
31.7 |
28.6 |
-3 |
|
In your opinion, how will the sanctions imposed by foreign countries affect the economy of the Vologda Oblast? |
||||||||||||
|
The sanctions will have a positive effect, they will improve the situation |
22.0 |
19.0 |
-3 |
22.8 |
16.9 |
-6 |
24.2 |
23.1 |
-1 |
23.3 |
20.7 |
-3 |
|
The sanctions will have a negative effect, they will aggravate the situation |
25.8 |
27.8 |
+2 |
26.2 |
33.8 |
+8 |
7.3 |
9.7 |
+2 |
17.1 |
20.4 |
+3 |
|
Nothing will change, everything will remain as it has been |
21.7 |
29.3 |
+8 |
27.4 |
27.3 |
0 |
29.6 |
30.5 |
+1 |
26.9 |
29.3 |
+2 |
|
It is difficult to answer |
30.6 |
23.9 |
-7 |
23.6 |
22.0 |
-2 |
38.9 |
36.8 |
-2 |
32.7 |
29.5 |
-3 |
The opinions of the oblast residents about the consequences of Russia’s response to the U.S. EU sanctions are as follows: the share of those who believe that they will bring more good than harm amounts to 42%; 20% of the population think the opposite. At the same time, the share of pessimistic forecasts has increased over the last two months (from 16 to 20%).
Opinion of the population about Russia’s reciprocal sanctions against the USA and the EU (as a percentage of the number of respondents)
|
In your opinion, will the ban on the import into Russia of certain foreign foodstuffs do Russia more good or harm? |
||||||||||||
|
Answer option |
Vologda |
Cherepovets |
Districts |
Oblast |
||||||||
|
Оct. 2014 |
Dec. 2014 |
Dynamics (+ - ), Oct. 2014 to Dec. 2014 |
Оct. 2014 |
Dec. 2014 |
Dynamics (+ - ), Oct. 2014 to Dec. 2014 |
Оct. 2014 |
Dec. 2014 |
Dynamics (+ - ), Oct. 2014 to Dec. 2014 |
Оct. 2014 |
Dec. 2014 |
Dynamics (+ - ), Oct. 2014 to Dec. 2014 |
|
|
Sooner more good |
46,0 |
42,2 |
-4 |
60,8 |
53,0 |
-8 |
36,0 |
36,5 |
-1 |
45,1 |
42,3 |
-3 |
|
Sooner more harm |
16,4 |
23,4 |
+7 |
16,9 |
27,3 |
+10 |
15,1 |
14,3 |
-1 |
15,9 |
20,1 |
+4 |
|
It is difficult to answer |
37,6 |
34,4 |
-3 |
22,3 |
19,7 |
-3 |
48,9 |
49,2 |
0 |
39,0 |
37,6 |
-1 |
Conclusion
The results of the surveys conducted in December 2014 show that, despite the deterioration of Russia’s standing in the international arena and the increased difficulties in its socioeconomic development, the society maintains a high level of support to public authorities.
At the same time, the surveys point out that the structure of social self-identification is deteriorating, consumer sentiment index is declining, which requires appropriate action on the part of the federal and regional authorities.
The decrease in consumer activity also indicates that the Russians are becoming less and less confident about the fact that their financial situation may improve. This is largely due to the fact that the oblast residents are not sure whether this international policy of imposing sanctions can have a favorable outcome. Despite the vigorous information campaign and regular assuring statements by government representatives claiming that the anti-Russian economic sanctions will give a new impetus to economic development, the share of pessimistic forecasts regarding the effect of the sanctions policy on the national and regional economy is growing. This indicates that the people have anxious expectations concerning the trends in their financial situation in the near future.
