Public opinion monitoring of the state of the Russian society
Автор: Ilyin Vladimir Aleksandrovich
Журнал: Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast @volnc-esc-en
Рубрика: From the chief editor
Статья в выпуске: 2 (38) т.8, 2015 года.
Бесплатный доступ
Короткий адрес: https://sciup.org/147223709
IDR: 147223709
Текст обзорной статьи Public opinion monitoring of the state of the Russian society
In February – April 2015, the support of the RF President’s performance increased slightly: the level of approval rose from 66 to 68%, the share of negative assessments decreased from 21 to 16%.The people’s estimates are better than in 2013, when the level of support of the head of state was 55%, and the share of negative characteristics was 29%.
The level of approval of performance of the Chairman of the RF Government in April 2015, compared with February, did not change either. The share of positive assessments is 56–57%, but the proportion of negative assessments decreased from 25 to 21%. For comparison: people’s estimates in 2013 were worse: 49% supported the Chairman of the RF Government, the share of negative judgments was 33%.
For reference: according to VTSIOM surveys carried out April 5 and April 12, 2015 the nationwide level of approval of the performance of the RF President did not change, compared to February 2014, and it is 87.1% (the proportion of negative estimates is 7.3%). The level of support of the Chairman of the RF Government in the first half of April 2015 was 68.9% (the proportion of negative estimates was 18.2%).
On average for the last six surveys the level of support to the federal authorities remains higher than in 2013 and 2011.
How do you assess the current performance of..? (as a percentage of the number of respondents)
|
Answer option |
2007 |
2011 |
2013 |
2014 |
June 2014 |
Aug. 2014 |
Oct. 2014 |
Dec. 2014 |
Feb. 2015 |
Apr. 2015 |
Average for the last six surveys |
Dynamics (+/-), the last six surveys in comparison with… |
||
|
2013 |
2011 |
2007 |
||||||||||||
|
RF President |
||||||||||||||
|
I approve |
75.3 |
58.7 |
55.3 |
64.1 |
66.6 |
66.4 |
66.8 |
66.0 |
66.3 |
67.5 |
66.6 |
+11 |
+8 |
-9 |
|
I do not approve |
11.5 |
25.6 |
29.4 |
22.3 |
21.8 |
19.3 |
18.5 |
19.7 |
20.5 |
16.2 |
19.3 |
-10 |
-6 |
+8 |
|
Chairman of the RF Government* |
||||||||||||||
|
I approve |
-* |
59.3 |
48.9 |
54.2 |
55.8 |
55.2 |
56.2 |
56.3 |
56.1 |
56.5 |
56.0 |
+7 |
-3 |
- |
|
I do not approve |
- |
24.7 |
32.8 |
27.6 |
26.4 |
26.8 |
23.9 |
24.7 |
24.7 |
20.5 |
24.5 |
-8 |
0 |
- |
|
Governor |
||||||||||||||
|
I approve |
55.8 |
45.7 |
44.4 |
40.1 |
38.5 |
38.8 |
39.7 |
39.3 |
38.3 |
37.1 |
38.6 |
-6 |
-7 |
-17 |
|
I do not approve |
22.2 |
30.5 |
33.2 |
38.9 |
40.9 |
40.1 |
39.6 |
37.0 |
37.4 |
37.5 |
38.8 |
+6 |
+8 |
+17 |
|
* Included into the survey since 2008. |
||||||||||||||
The share of the Vologda Oblast residents, who believe that the President is successful in strengthening Russia’s international standing, has increased for the last two months (from 50 to 53%).
The assessment of the President’s performance in coping with the remaining key problems of the country has not changed significantly: the proportion of people, who support the actions of the head of state aimed to restore order in the country is 50%, to protect democracy and strengthen the citizens’ freedoms – 39%, to promote economic recovery and increase the citizens’ welfare – 35%.
In general, the attitude of the Vologda Oblast residents to Vladimir Putin’s activities aimed to cope with the most important challenges of Russia remains more positive than in 2011–2014.
In your opinion, how successful is the RF President in coping with challenging issues?* (as a percentage of the number of respondents)
|
Answer option |
2007 |
2011 |
2013 |
2014 |
June 2014 |
Aug. 2014 |
Oct. 2014 |
Dec. 2014 |
Feb. 2015 |
Apr. 2015 |
Average for the last six surveys |
Dynamics (+/-), the last six surveys in comparison with… |
||
|
2013 |
2011 |
2007 |
||||||||||||
|
Strengthening Russia’s international standing |
||||||||||||||
|
Successful |
58.4 |
46.2 |
45.7 |
50.4 |
53.7 |
50.9 |
52.3 |
50.8 |
50.4 |
52.7 |
51.8 |
+6 |
+6 |
-7 |
|
Unsuccessful |
24.9 |
33.7 |
36.2 |
32.4 |
31.7 |
30.0 |
31.0 |
30.3 |
29.5 |
28.7 |
30.2 |
-6 |
-4 |
+5 |
|
Index of success** |
133.5 |
112.5 |
109.5 |
118.0 |
122.0 |
120.9 |
121.3 |
120.5 |
120.9 |
124.0 |
121.6 |
+12 |
+9 |
-12 |
|
Imposing order in the country |
||||||||||||||
|
Successful |
53.2 |
36.6 |
39.4 |
48.0 |
49.5 |
47.5 |
49.4 |
52.1 |
50.3 |
50.1 |
49.8 |
+10 |
+13 |
-3 |
|
Unsuccessful |
34.0 |
50.0 |
47.5 |
39.1 |
39.5 |
37.8 |
37.8 |
35.1 |
37.3 |
37.5 |
37.5 |
-10 |
-13 |
+4 |
|
Index of success |
119.2 |
86.6 |
91.9 |
108.9 |
110.0 |
109.7 |
111.6 |
117.0 |
113.0 |
112.6 |
112.3 |
+20 |
+26 |
-7 |
|
Protecting democracy and strengthening the citizens’ freedoms |
||||||||||||||
|
Successful |
44.4 |
32.4 |
31.8 |
37.5 |
40.1 |
37.6 |
38.2 |
40.7 |
39.5 |
39.2 |
39.2 |
+7 |
+7 |
-5 |
|
Unsuccessful |
37.0 |
48.3 |
51.0 |
45.4 |
43.9 |
43.7 |
44.3 |
41.9 |
40.9 |
39.9 |
42.4 |
-9 |
-6 |
+5 |
|
Index of success |
107.4 |
84.1 |
80.8 |
92.1 |
96.2 |
93.9 |
93.9 |
98.8 |
98.6 |
99.3 |
96.8 |
+16 |
+13 |
-11 |
|
Economic recovery and increase in the citizens’ welfare |
||||||||||||||
|
Successful |
47.2 |
30.7 |
31.3 |
34.8 |
35.8 |
35.1 |
33.9 |
37.6 |
34.4 |
34.7 |
35.3 |
+4 |
+5 |
-12 |
|
Unsuccessful |
39.1 |
56.1 |
56.8 |
53.4 |
53.5 |
50.2 |
54.4 |
50.8 |
51.5 |
49.9 |
51.7 |
-5 |
-4 |
+13 |
|
Index of success |
108.1 |
74.6 |
74.5 |
81.4 |
82.3 |
84.9 |
79.5 |
86.8 |
82.9 |
84.8 |
83.5 |
+9 |
+9 |
-25 |
|
* Ranked according to the average value of the index of success for the last 6 surveys. ** The indices are calculated as follows: the share of negative answers is subtracted from the share of positive answers, then 100 is added to the obtained value, so as not to have negative values. Thus, completely negative answers would give the total index of 0, and completely positive answers would give the total index of 200; the balance between the former and the latter expresses the value of the index 100, which is, essentially, a neutral mark. |
||||||||||||||
The proportion of the Oblast residents who believe that the “United Russia” expresses their interests is 38–39%. Support for the KPRF is 8%, for the LDPR – 6–7%, for the “Just Russia” – 4%.
In February – April 2015 there was only a slight increase in the proportion of the Vologda Oblast residents who believe that none of the political parties reflects their interests (from 30 to 32%), but this figure is still less than in 2014 (34%) and 2013 (35%); this indicates a higher level of interest of the Oblast residents in economic and political life in the country.
Which party expresses your interests? (as a percentage of the number of respondents)
|
Party |
2007 |
о Q .9 Q О CO ^ ш сс |
2011 |
о Q СО .Q "л ^ О СО ^ ш сс |
2013 |
2014 |
June 2014 |
Aug. 2014 |
Oct. 2014 |
Dec. 2014 |
Feb. 2015 |
Apr. 2015 |
Average for the last six surveys |
Dynamics (+/-), the last six surveys in comparison with… |
||
|
2013 |
2011 |
2007 |
||||||||||||||
|
United Russia |
30.2 |
60.5 |
31.1 |
33.4 |
29.4 |
32.8 |
32.7 |
34.3 |
35.5 |
36.7 |
38.8 |
38.2 |
36.0 |
+7 |
+5 |
+6 |
|
KPRF |
7.0 |
9.3 |
10.3 |
16.8 |
11.3 |
9.7 |
9.8 |
9.1 |
9.3 |
8.3 |
7.7 |
7.8 |
8.7 |
-3 |
-2 |
+2 |
|
LDPR |
7.5 |
11.0 |
7.8 |
15.4 |
7.2 |
7.6 |
6.2 |
6.9 |
7.3 |
7.8 |
6.7 |
6.1 |
6.8 |
0 |
-1 |
-1 |
|
Just Russia |
7.8 |
8.8 |
5.6 |
27.2 |
4.6 |
3.5 |
3.3 |
3.7 |
3.9 |
3.2 |
4.1 |
3.7 |
3.7 |
-1 |
-2 |
-4 |
|
Other |
1.8 |
– |
1.9 |
– |
0.6 |
0.3 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.7 |
0.1 |
0.3 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0 |
-2 |
-2 |
|
No party |
17.8 |
– |
29.4 |
– |
34.9 |
34.4 |
36.0 |
35.0 |
32.6 |
32.7 |
30.3 |
31.5 |
33.0 |
-2 |
+4 |
+15 |
|
It is difficult to answer |
21.2 |
– |
13.2 |
– |
10.2 |
11.7 |
11.8 |
10.9 |
10.7 |
11.1 |
12.0 |
12.5 |
11.5 |
+1 |
-2 |
-10 |
The characteristics of social mood and stock of patience for the last two months have improved.
The share of the Oblast residents, who assess their mood as “good and normal”, decreased: it was 62% in December 2015, and in April it was 68%.
The proportion of those, who believe that “Everything is not so bad; it’s difficult to live, but it’s possible to stand it” increased in February – April 2015 from 74 to 79%.
In general, the assessments of social sentiment and stock of patience in April 2015 are approximately the same as they were in 2013–2014, and they remain higher than in 2011.
However, in the last two months there were no significant changes in the people’s assessment of their own financial situation. About 52–53% of the Oblast residents consider themselves to be “poor” and extremely poor”. The proportion of those who consider themselves to have “average income” is still lower (37–38%). In general, the structure of social self-identification of the population in the early 2015 remains more negative than in 2011–2014.
The Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) continues to decline. This tendency is observed since June 2014. CSI decreased from 76 to 73 points in the last two months, which indicates that there remain anxious expectations in the society regarding the development of economic situation in the country and people’s own financial well-being.
However, according to the results of the study, the negative trend in CSI is not consistent with positive trends in social mood, stock of patience, and support of the performance of the President of the Russian Federation. The reason is that the Consumer Sentiment Index reflects a general perception of the economic situation in the country, rather then the people’s assessments of their personal financial situation, the dynamics of which does not show negative changes (the proportion of people of “average income” and “poor and extremely poor” in the last two months has not changed and amounts to 37 and 52%, respectively).
In other words, the assessment of changes in the dynamics of personal financial situation remains more stable than the estimation of the overall economic situation in the country, and this has a decisive influence on social well-being and attitude toward the activities of the authorities.
Estimation of social condition (as a percentage of the number of respondents)
|
Answer option |
2007 |
2011 |
2013 |
2014 |
June 2014 |
Aug. 2014 |
Oct. 2014 |
Dec. 2014 |
Feb. 2015 |
Apr. 2015 |
Average for the last six surveys |
Dynamics (+/-), the last six surveys in comparison with… |
||
|
2013 |
2011 |
2007 |
||||||||||||
|
Mood |
||||||||||||||
|
Usual condition, good mood |
63.6 |
63.1 |
68.6 |
69.4 |
71.1 |
70.5 |
69.3 |
70.9 |
61.8 |
67.6 |
68.5 |
0 |
+5 |
+5 |
|
I feel stress, anger, fear, depression |
27.8 |
28.9 |
26.2 |
24.9 |
23.7 |
25.1 |
24.6 |
24.1 |
31.3 |
26.6 |
25.9 |
0 |
-3 |
-2 |
|
Stock of patience |
||||||||||||||
|
Everything is not so bad; it’s difficult to live, but it’s possible to stand it |
74.1 |
74.8 |
79.3 |
80.8 |
81.0 |
82.5 |
80.3 |
80.0 |
74.3 |
78.9 |
79.5 |
0 |
+5 |
+5 |
|
It’s impossible to bear such plight |
13.6 |
15.3 |
14.2 |
12.6 |
13.4 |
12.8 |
12.1 |
13.6 |
17.3 |
14.9 |
14.0 |
0 |
-1 |
0 |
|
Social self-identification* |
||||||||||||||
|
The share of people who consider themselves to have average income |
48.2 |
43.1 |
43.9 |
43.2 |
42.0 |
44.1 |
43.5 |
42.3 |
38.3 |
36.7 |
41.2 |
-3 |
-2 |
-7 |
|
The share of people who consider themselves to be poor and extremely poor |
42.4 |
44.3 |
46.9 |
49.1 |
48.4 |
49.6 |
49.3 |
51.0 |
53.3 |
51.6 |
50.5 |
+4 |
+6 |
+8 |
|
Consumer Sentiment Index |
||||||||||||||
|
Index value, points |
105.9 |
89.6 |
90.3 |
87.6 |
90.5 |
87.1 |
84.0 |
82.3 |
75.7 |
73.4 |
82.2 |
-8 |
-7 |
-24 |
|
* Question: “Which category do you belong to, in your opinion?” |
||||||||||||||
In February – April 2015, the proportion of positive assessments of social mood increased in 13 out of the 14 socio-demographic groups of the population; first of all, in people aged 30–55 (from 58 to 68%) and the 20% of the poorest residents in the Oblast (from 38 to 56%).
Negative changes are observed in only one group among the 20% of the wealthiest inhabitants of the Oblast (the share of positive assessments of social mood has dropped from 80 to 78%).
In the Vologda Oblast in general and in almost all the socio-demographic categories of the population (excluding the 20% of the poorest) social mood is better than in 2007. Apparently, this is due to the beginning of Vladimir Putin’s third presidential term and, in principle, with the fact that Vladimir Putin is President. It is in 2012 that the percentage of positive assessments of social mood reached the level that it currently maintains (67–69%). Up to 2012 the proportion of those who estimates their mood positively was somewhat lower (63%). This feature is observed in almost all (in 11 out of 14) the socio-demographic groups.
Social mood in different socio-demographic groups (answer option “Good mood, usual, good condition”, as a percentage of the number of respondents)
|
Category of population |
2007 |
2011 |
2012 |
2013 |
2014 |
June 2014 |
Aug. 2014 |
Oct. 2014 |
Dec. 2014 |
Feb. 2015 |
Apr. 2015 |
Average for the last six surveys |
Dynamics (+/-), the last six surveys in comparison with… |
||
|
2013 |
2011 |
2007 |
|||||||||||||
|
Sex |
|||||||||||||||
|
Men |
65.9 |
64.5 |
69.1 |
69.9 |
68.9 |
71.3 |
69.5 |
68.8 |
69.7 |
61.7 |
67.4 |
68.1 |
-2 |
+4 |
+2 |
|
Women |
61.7 |
62.0 |
65.8 |
67.5 |
69.8 |
71.0 |
71.4 |
69.8 |
72.0 |
61.9 |
67.8 |
69.0 |
+2 |
+7 |
+7 |
|
Age |
|||||||||||||||
|
Under 30 |
71.3 |
70.0 |
72.3 |
75.5 |
75.1 |
76.1 |
79.1 |
76.6 |
76.4 |
71.3 |
73.5 |
75.5 |
0 |
+6 |
+4 |
|
30–55 |
64.8 |
62.5 |
67.9 |
69.2 |
69.5 |
71.8 |
70.3 |
68.3 |
69.8 |
58.3 |
67.9 |
67.7 |
-2 |
+5 |
+3 |
|
Over 55 |
54.8 |
58.3 |
62.1 |
62.4 |
65.4 |
66.7 |
64.9 |
66.1 |
69.1 |
60.7 |
63.7 |
65.2 |
+3 |
+7 |
+10 |
|
Education |
|||||||||||||||
|
Incomplete secondary, secondary |
58.4 |
57.4 |
57.2 |
60.6 |
62.5 |
61.7 |
63.3 |
65.4 |
67.8 |
54.8 |
62.1 |
62.5 |
+2 |
+5 |
+4 |
|
Secondary vocational |
64.6 |
63.6 |
66.7 |
68.1 |
70.4 |
72.2 |
71.3 |
70.2 |
71.8 |
65.2 |
68.2 |
69.8 |
+2 |
+6 |
+5 |
|
Incomplete higher, higher |
68.6 |
68.3 |
77.0 |
77.4 |
76.2 |
80.4 |
77.7 |
73.3 |
73.5 |
65.8 |
73.1 |
74.0 |
-3 |
+6 |
+5 |
|
Income groups |
|||||||||||||||
|
20% of the poorest people |
51.6 |
45.3 |
51.5 |
46.2 |
50.8 |
54.9 |
54.1 |
50.2 |
55.1 |
38.3 |
55.6 |
51.4 |
+5 |
+6 |
0 |
|
60% of the people with middle-sized income |
62.9 |
65.3 |
68.7 |
71.9 |
72.3 |
72.7 |
71.5 |
73.5 |
75.0 |
65.2 |
69.2 |
71.2 |
-1 |
+6 |
+8 |
|
20% of the most prosperous people |
74.9 |
75.3 |
81.1 |
83.3 |
84.8 |
89.0 |
89.6 |
79.0 |
81.6 |
80.3 |
78.1 |
82.9 |
0 |
+8 |
+8 |
|
Territories |
|||||||||||||||
|
Vologda |
63.1 |
67.1 |
73.6 |
75.0 |
76.4 |
78.6 |
80.7 |
75.5 |
75.6 |
66.4 |
72.5 |
74.9 |
0 |
+8 |
+12 |
|
Cherepovets |
68.1 |
71.2 |
76.2 |
75.3 |
76.3 |
79.9 |
76.5 |
72.8 |
73.2 |
63.1 |
69.8 |
72.6 |
-3 |
+1 |
+5 |
|
Districts |
61.6 |
57.1 |
59.8 |
61.6 |
61.8 |
62.3 |
61.5 |
64.0 |
67.1 |
58.6 |
63.7 |
62.9 |
+1 |
+6 |
+1 |
|
Oblast |
63,6 |
63,1 |
67,3 |
68,6 |
69,4 |
71,1 |
70,5 |
69,3 |
70,9 |
61,8 |
67,6 |
68,5 |
0 |
+5 |
+5 |
Conclusion:
The results of the survey carried out in April 2015 indicate that the situation has improved compared to the beginning of the year in many key positions that characterize public opinion. Social mood has improved considerably (the percentage of positive assessments increased from 62 to 68%, and negative assessments decreased from 31 to 27%), the stock of patience has increased (the proportion of positive ratings increased from 74 to 79%, negative ratings – decreased from 17 to 15%), the approval of the RF President’s performance has increased (approval rating increased from 66 to 68%, the proportion of negative judgments dropped from 21% to 16%).
In addition, after declining in December 2014 and February 2015, the assessment of success of the President’s actions aimed at economic recovery and growth of citizens’ welfare has stabilized (35%), as well as the share of the Oblast residents, who consider themselves to have “average level of financial welfare” (37%).
For the first time in the period from October 2014 to April 2015 there was a break in the negative trend of reduction in the Consumer Sentiment Index among the people who belong to the poorest 20% of the Oblast residents according to their own assessments of their income level (over the last two months CSI in this group has increased from 59 to 63%). The same group is also distinguished by the largest increase in the proportion of positive ratings of social mood (from 38 to 56%).
As for the negative trends of recent months, it is necessary to mention the decrease in the Consumer Sentiment Index (it decreased from 76 to 73% in February – April 2015). This is an important indicator that reflects the essence of people’s consumer sentiment, their forecasts for the future development of the economic situation and their own financial position. However, as the research has shown, the negative trend in CSI indicates the disturbing expectations of people, their uncertainty about the future, rather then the assessment of the real changes in the dynamics of the standard of living.
Positive changes in the dynamics of public opinion are related to the improvement of the financial situation of the population, and to the overcoming of the feeling of crisis. This is confirmed by the official statistics2, and this was mentioned by Vladimir Putin during the “direct line” with the population on April 16, 20153.
In general, the subject of the last three “direct lines” with the President clearly reflects the trends in public opinion. After discussing the issues related to international politics and national self-determination (which were the main topics of the “direct line” in 2014), the 2015 agenda is again focuses on the internal socio-economic problems; but now they are considered not in the context of the “May decrees” (as it was in 2013), but in the context of the functioning of Russia’s economy under the sanctions.
The fact that public attention is focused on domestic economic issues, on the one hand, indicates their importance to the population. On the other hand, however, it proves that the society shares the viewpoint of the President about the necessity to “find better ways to manage these (socio-economic, – editorial note) processes by ourselves, in our own country”4.
