Public opinion monitoring of the state of the Russian society
Автор: Ilyin Vladimir Aleksandrovich
Журнал: Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast @volnc-esc-en
Рубрика: From the chief editor
Статья в выпуске: 3 (39) т.8, 2015 года.
Бесплатный доступ
Короткий адрес: https://sciup.org/147223728
IDR: 147223728
Текст обзорной статьи Public opinion monitoring of the state of the Russian society
In April – June 2015, there was a continuing upward trend in the support of the RF President’s performance: the approval level increased from 68 to 70%, the share of negative assessments remained the same (16%). In general, people’s assessments are better than in 2013 (when the level of approval was 55%), in 2014 (64%) and early 2015 (the approval level in February was 66% and the share of negative judgments was 21%).
On average for the last six polls, the level of approval of federal authorities by the Vologda Oblast residents remains higher than in 2013 and 2014.
For reference: the nationwide level of approval of the performance of the RF President did not change significantly. Thus, according to VTSIOM surveys carried out in April – May 2015, the level of support of Vladimir Putin’s performance is 88% (the share of negative assessments is 7%). According to Levada Center (over the same period) approval of the President of the Russian Federation is 86%; the proportion of negative assessments is 13%.
How do you assess the current performance of..? (as a percentage of the number of respondents)
|
Answer option |
2007 |
2011 |
2013 |
2014 |
Aug. 2014 |
Oct. 2014 |
Dec. 2014 |
Feb. 2015 |
Apr. 2015 |
June 2015 |
Average for the last six surveys |
Dynamics (+/-), the last six surveys in comparison with… |
||
|
2013 |
2011 |
2007 |
||||||||||||
|
RF President |
||||||||||||||
|
I approve |
75.3 |
58.7 |
55.3 |
64.1 |
66.4 |
66.8 |
66.0 |
66.3 |
67.5 |
69.5 |
67.1 |
+12 |
+8 |
-8 |
|
I do not approve |
11.5 |
25.6 |
29.4 |
22.3 |
19.3 |
18.5 |
19.7 |
20.5 |
16.2 |
16.1 |
18.4 |
-11 |
-7 |
+7 |
|
Chairman of the RF Government * |
||||||||||||||
|
I approve |
-* |
59.3 |
48.9 |
54.2 |
55.2 |
56.2 |
56.3 |
56.1 |
56.5 |
59.1 |
56.6 |
+8 |
-3 |
- |
|
I do not approve |
- |
24.7 |
32.8 |
27.6 |
26.8 |
23.9 |
24.7 |
24.7 |
20.5 |
19.5 |
23.4 |
-9 |
-1 |
- |
|
Governor |
||||||||||||||
|
I approve |
55.8 |
45.7 |
44.4 |
40.1 |
38.8 |
39.7 |
39.3 |
38.3 |
37.1 |
40.5 |
39.0 |
-5 |
-7 |
-17 |
|
I do not approve |
22.2 |
30.5 |
33.2 |
38.9 |
40.1 |
39.6 |
37.0 |
37.4 |
37.5 |
35.4 |
37.8 |
+5 |
+7 |
+16 |
|
* Included into the survey since 2008. |
||||||||||||||
Over the past two months there has been an increase in the proportion of the Vologda Oblast residents who believe that the President is successful in protect democracy and strengthening citizens’ freedoms (from 39 to 42%). Assessment of the activity of the head of state in the field of restoring order in the country and economic recovery did not change significantly (50 and 36%, respectively).
It is noteworthy that public opinion concerning V. Putin’s work to strengthen Russia’s international standing has deteriorated (the share of positive assessments for the last two months decreased from 53 to 51%, the proportion of negative judgments increased from 29 to 33%).
In general, people’s current assessments are better than they were in the beginning of the year, and better than in 2013 and 2014. This also concerns their judgements about challenges such as economic recovery and prosperity that the President has to cope with and that are the most relevant for the Oblast residents.
However, on average over the last six surveys, the proportion of negative assessments remains higher than the proportion of positive answers in the attitude of the population toward the activities of the President concerning two issues – protection of democracy (42 vs. 40%) and the increase in the welfare of citizens (51 vs. 35%).
In your opinion, how successful is the RF President in coping with challenging issues?* (as a percentage of the number of respondents)
|
Answer option |
2007 |
2011 |
2013 |
2014 |
Aug. 2014 |
Oct. 2014 |
Dec. 2014 |
Feb. 2015 |
Apr. 2015 |
June 2015 |
Average for the last six surveys |
Dynamics (+/-), the last six surveys in comparison with… |
||
|
2013 |
2011 |
2007 |
||||||||||||
|
Strengthening Russia’s international standing |
||||||||||||||
|
Successful |
58.4 |
46.2 |
45.7 |
50.4 |
50.9 |
52.3 |
50.8 |
50.4 |
52.7 |
51.1 |
51.4 |
+6 |
+5 |
-7 |
|
Unsuccessful |
24.9 |
33.7 |
36.2 |
32.4 |
30.0 |
31.0 |
30.3 |
29.5 |
28.7 |
32.5 |
30.3 |
-6 |
-3 |
+5 |
|
Index of success ** |
133.5 |
112.5 |
109.5 |
118.0 |
120.9 |
121.3 |
120.5 |
120.9 |
124.0 |
118.6 |
121.0 |
+12 |
+9 |
-12 |
|
Imposing order in the country |
||||||||||||||
|
Successful |
53.2 |
36.6 |
39.4 |
48.0 |
47.5 |
49.4 |
52.1 |
50.3 |
50.1 |
49.9 |
49.9 |
+10 |
+13 |
-3 |
|
Unsuccessful |
34.0 |
50.0 |
47.5 |
39.1 |
37.8 |
37.8 |
35.1 |
37.3 |
37.5 |
38.0 |
37.3 |
-10 |
-13 |
+3 |
|
Index of success |
119.2 |
86.6 |
91.9 |
108.9 |
109.7 |
111.6 |
117.0 |
113.0 |
112.6 |
111.9 |
112.6 |
+21 |
+26 |
-7 |
|
Protecting democracy and strengthening the citizens’ freedoms |
||||||||||||||
|
Successful |
44.4 |
32.4 |
31.8 |
37.5 |
37.6 |
38.2 |
40.7 |
39.5 |
39.2 |
42.2 |
39.6 |
+8 |
+7 |
-5 |
|
Unsuccessful |
37.0 |
48.3 |
51.0 |
45.4 |
43.7 |
44.3 |
41.9 |
40.9 |
39.9 |
38.3 |
41.5 |
-10 |
-7 |
+5 |
|
Index of success |
107.4 |
84.1 |
80.8 |
92.1 |
93.9 |
93.9 |
98.8 |
98.6 |
99.3 |
103.9 |
98.1 |
+17 |
+14 |
-9 |
|
Economic recovery and increase in the citizens’ welfare |
||||||||||||||
|
Successful |
47.2 |
30.7 |
31.3 |
34.8 |
35.1 |
33.9 |
37.6 |
34.4 |
34.7 |
36.2 |
35.3 |
+4 |
+5 |
-12 |
|
Unsuccessful |
39.1 |
56.1 |
56.8 |
53.4 |
50.2 |
54.4 |
50.8 |
51.5 |
49.9 |
49.9 |
51.1 |
-6 |
-5 |
+12 |
|
Index of success |
108.1 |
74.6 |
74.5 |
81.4 |
84.9 |
79.5 |
86.8 |
82.9 |
84.8 |
86.3 |
84.2 |
+10 |
+10 |
-24 |
|
* Ranked according to the average value of the index of success for the last 6 surveys. ** The indices are calculated as follows: the share of negative answers is subtracted from the share of positive answers, then 100 is added to the obtained value, so as not to have negative values. Thus, completely negative answers would give the total index of 0, and completely positive answers would give the total index of 200; the balance between the former and the latter expresses the value of the index 100, which is, essentially, a neutral mark. |
||||||||||||||
The structure of the Russians’ preferences concerning political parties in April – June 2015 shows that their support to the “United Russia” increased slightly (from 38 to 40%), which in general corresponds to the growth of people’s approval of federal authorities. Assessments concerning other parties in the last two months did not change significantly: the share of the Oblast residents who believe that their interests are expressed by KPRF is 7%, by LDPR – 5%, by the “Just Russia” – 3%.
Which party expresses your interests? (as a percentage of the number of respondents)
|
Party |
2007 |
СО о cc о ^ I1 о 1=1 |
2011 |
55 у CC ч-_ О I 6 ° |
2013 |
2014 |
Aug. 2014 |
Oct. 2014 |
Dec. 2014 |
Feb. 2015 |
Apr. 2015 |
June 2015 |
Average for the last six surveys |
Dynamics (+/-), the last six surveys in comparison with… |
||
|
2013 |
2011 |
2007 |
||||||||||||||
|
United Russia |
30.2 |
60.5 |
31.1 |
33.4 |
29.4 |
32.8 |
34.3 |
35.5 |
36.7 |
38.8 |
38.2 |
40.3 |
37.3 |
+8 |
+6 |
+7 |
|
KPRF |
7.0 |
9.3 |
10.3 |
16.8 |
11.3 |
9.7 |
9.1 |
9.3 |
8.3 |
7.7 |
7.8 |
6.8 |
8.2 |
-3 |
-2 |
+1 |
|
LDPR |
7.5 |
11.0 |
7.8 |
15.4 |
7.2 |
7.6 |
6.9 |
7.3 |
7.8 |
6.7 |
6.1 |
5.4 |
6.7 |
-1 |
-1 |
-1 |
|
Just Russia |
7.8 |
8.8 |
5.6 |
27.2 |
4.6 |
3.5 |
3.7 |
3.9 |
3.2 |
4.1 |
3.7 |
3.3 |
3.7 |
-1 |
-2 |
-4 |
|
Other |
1.8 |
– |
1.9 |
– |
0.6 |
0.3 |
0.1 |
0.7 |
0.1 |
0.3 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
0 |
-2 |
-2 |
|
No party |
17.8 |
– |
29.4 |
– |
34.9 |
34.4 |
35.0 |
32.6 |
32.7 |
30.3 |
31.5 |
32.5 |
32.4 |
-2 |
+3 |
+15 |
|
It is difficult to answer |
21.2 |
– |
13.2 |
– |
10.2 |
11.7 |
10.9 |
10.7 |
11.1 |
12.0 |
12.5 |
11.6 |
11.5 |
+1 |
-2 |
-10 |
It is necessary to note the recovery growth of social well-being assessments after their sharp decline in the beginning of the year. In February 2015, compared with December 2014, the share of positive assessments of social mood dropped from 71 to 62%. In the following months (from February to June 2015) there was an increase in the share of positive assessments (from 62 to 70%).
In April – June 2015, the proportion of the Vologda Oblast residents, who describe their mood as “normal and fine”, rose from 68% to 70%; the proportion of those, who “experience stress, anger, fear, depression”, decreased from 27 to 24%.
The stock of patience remains at the same level: 79% of the Oblast residents believe that “everything is not so bad; it’s difficult to live, but it’s possible to stand it”, 15% say that “it’s impossible to bear such plight”. For comparison, in December 2014, the share of positive assessments was 80%, in February, 2015 – 74%.
The assessments of financial position have improved for the first time in the course of the last six surveys. In April – June 2015, the share of those, who consider that they have “average income”, increased from 37 to 39%, the proportion of “the poor and extremely poor” fell from 52 to 48%,
The consumer sentiment index, which characterizes people’s forecasts concerning the prospects of economic development and their personal wealth, increased from 73 to 80 points, which roughly corresponds to the level of December 2014 (82%).
Estimation of social condition (as a percentage of the number of respondents)
|
Answer option |
2007 |
2011 |
2013 |
2014 |
Aug. 2014 |
Oct. 2014 |
Dec. 2014 |
Feb. 2015 |
Apr. 2015 |
June 2015 |
Average for the last six surveys |
Dynamics (+/-), the last six surveys in comparison with… |
||
|
2013 |
2011 |
2007 |
||||||||||||
|
Mood |
||||||||||||||
|
Usual condition, good mood |
63.6 |
63.1 |
68.6 |
69.4 |
70.5 |
69.3 |
70.9 |
61.8 |
67.6 |
69.5 |
68.3 |
0 |
+5 |
+5 |
|
I feel stress, anger, fear, depression |
27.8 |
28.9 |
26.2 |
24.9 |
25.1 |
24.6 |
24.1 |
31.3 |
26.6 |
24.4 |
26.0 |
0 |
-3 |
-2 |
|
Stock of patience |
||||||||||||||
|
Everything is not so bad; it’s difficult to live, but it’s possible to stand it |
74.1 |
74.8 |
79.3 |
80.8 |
82.5 |
80.3 |
80.0 |
74.3 |
78.9 |
79.0 |
79.2 |
0 |
+4 |
+5 |
|
It’s impossible to bear such plight |
13.6 |
15.3 |
14.2 |
12.6 |
12.8 |
12.1 |
13.6 |
17.3 |
14.9 |
14.7 |
14.2 |
0 |
-1 |
+1 |
|
Social self-identification* |
||||||||||||||
|
The share of people who consider themselves to have average income |
48.2 |
43.1 |
43.9 |
43.2 |
44.1 |
43.5 |
42.3 |
38.3 |
36.7 |
39.4 |
40.7 |
-3 |
-2 |
-7 |
|
The share of people who consider themselves to be poor and extremely poor |
42.4 |
44.3 |
46.9 |
49.1 |
49.6 |
49.3 |
51.0 |
53.3 |
51.6 |
48.0 |
50.5 |
+4 |
+6 |
+8 |
|
Consumer Sentiment Index |
||||||||||||||
|
Index value, points |
105.9 |
89.6 |
90.3 |
87.6 |
87.1 |
84.0 |
82.3 |
75.7 |
73.4 |
80.1 |
80.4 |
-10 |
-9 |
-25 |
|
* Question: “Which category do you belong to, in your opinion?” |
||||||||||||||
In April – June 2015, the proportion of negative assessments of the current financial situation in the Vologda Oblast decreased from 38 to 32%, the share of negative forecasts for the coming year decreased from 31 to 24%. This allows us to expect positive changes nationwide. According to the associates of the Institute of Sociology of RAS, “numerous forecasts2, which predict economic collapse and social depression in Russia by the spring of 2015, prove to be wrong... As always happens in times of crisis, society captures the increasing tension even if there are no serious social cataclysms in the country3.
Public opinion concerning the current situation and prospects of development of welfare situation (as a percentage of the number of respondents)
|
Вариант ответа |
How would you asses your financial situation: is it better or worse than it was a year ago? |
Do you think that in a year your financial situation will be better or worse or about the same as now? |
||||||
|
October 2014 |
April 2015 |
October 2014 |
April 2015 |
|||||
|
To H |
ro S tO ” tO |
S To H |
ro S tO ” tO (U CC |
S To H |
to (U CC |
S To H |
to E to (U cc |
|
|
Better |
9 |
22 |
6 |
10 |
6 |
31 |
5 |
25 |
|
The same |
48 |
56 |
41 |
44 |
38 |
46 |
34 |
38 |
|
Worse |
28 |
22 |
38 |
46 |
23 |
23 |
31 |
37 |
|
It is difficult to answer |
15 |
– |
16 |
– |
33 |
– |
30 |
– |
Source of the data for the Vologda Oblast: public opinion monitoring carried out by ISEDT RAS.
Source of the data for the Russian Federation: information-analytical summary of the findings of the national survey “Russian everyday life in crisis: how we live and how we feel” (RAS Institute of Sociology, 2015).
In April – June, 2015 in 8 out of 14 socio-demographic groups there was an increase in the proportion of people describing their mood as “fine, normal, good”, especially among men (from 67 to 73%), people aged under 30 (from 74 to 79%), persons with secondary vocational education (from 68 to 74%), and 20% of the wealthiest (from 78 to 83%).
There were no significant changes in 5 groups: women (67%), people aged 30 – 55 (68%), the poorest 20% (57%), the residents of Cherepovets (65%) and districts (65%).
A slight decrease in the proportion of people, who characterize their mood positively, is observed only among persons with higher and incomplete higher education (from 73 to 71%).
Social mood in different socio-demographic groups (answer option “Good mood, usual, good condition”, as a percentage of the number of respondents)
|
Category of population |
2007 |
2011 |
2012 |
2013 |
2014 |
Aug. 2014 |
Oct. 2014 |
Dec. 2014 |
Feb. 2015 |
Apr. 2015 |
June 2015 |
Average for the last six surveys |
Dynamics (+/-), the last six surveys in comparison with… |
||
|
2013 |
2011 |
2007 |
|||||||||||||
|
Sex |
|||||||||||||||
|
Men |
65.9 |
64.5 |
69.1 |
69.9 |
68.9 |
69.5 |
68.8 |
69.7 |
61.7 |
67.4 |
72.7 |
68.3 |
-2 |
+4 |
+2 |
|
Women |
61.7 |
62.0 |
65.8 |
67.5 |
69.8 |
71.4 |
69.8 |
72.0 |
61.9 |
67.8 |
66.8 |
68.3 |
+1 |
+6 |
+7 |
|
Age |
|||||||||||||||
|
Under 30 |
71.3 |
70.0 |
72.3 |
75.5 |
75.1 |
79.1 |
76.6 |
76.4 |
71.3 |
73.5 |
79.4 |
76.1 |
+1 |
+6 |
+5 |
|
30–55 |
64.8 |
62.5 |
67.9 |
69.2 |
69.5 |
70.3 |
68.3 |
69.8 |
58.3 |
67.9 |
67.6 |
67.0 |
-2 |
+5 |
+2 |
|
Over 55 |
54.8 |
58.3 |
62.1 |
62.4 |
65.4 |
64.9 |
66.1 |
69.1 |
60.7 |
63.7 |
65.9 |
65.1 |
+3 |
+7 |
+10 |
|
Education |
|||||||||||||||
|
Incomplete secondary, secondary |
58.4 |
57.4 |
57.2 |
60.6 |
62.5 |
63.3 |
65.4 |
67.8 |
54.8 |
62.1 |
64.0 |
62.9 |
+2 |
+6 |
+5 |
|
Secondary vocational |
64.6 |
63.6 |
66.7 |
68.1 |
70.4 |
71.3 |
70.2 |
71.8 |
65.2 |
68.2 |
73.6 |
70.1 |
+2 |
+6 |
+5 |
|
Incomplete higher, higher |
68.6 |
68.3 |
77.0 |
77.4 |
76.2 |
77.7 |
73.3 |
73.5 |
65.8 |
73.1 |
70.6 |
72.3 |
-5 |
+4 |
+4 |
|
Income groups |
|||||||||||||||
|
20% of the poorest people |
51.6 |
45.3 |
51.5 |
46.2 |
50.8 |
54.1 |
50.2 |
55.1 |
38.3 |
55.6 |
57.1 |
51.7 |
+6 |
+6 |
0 |
|
60% of the people with middle-sized income |
62.9 |
65.3 |
68.7 |
71.9 |
72.3 |
71.5 |
73.5 |
75.0 |
65.2 |
69.2 |
71.3 |
71.0 |
-1 |
+6 |
+8 |
|
20% of the most prosperous people |
74.9 |
75.3 |
81.1 |
83.3 |
84.8 |
89.6 |
79.0 |
81.6 |
80.3 |
78.1 |
82.5 |
81.9 |
-1 |
+7 |
+7 |
|
Territories |
|||||||||||||||
|
Vologda |
63.1 |
67.1 |
73.6 |
75.0 |
76.4 |
80.7 |
75.5 |
75.6 |
66.4 |
72.5 |
75.6 |
74.4 |
-1 |
+7 |
+11 |
|
Cherepovets |
68.1 |
71.2 |
76.2 |
75.3 |
76.3 |
76.5 |
72.8 |
73.2 |
63.1 |
69.8 |
71.2 |
71.1 |
-4 |
0 |
+3 |
|
Districts |
61.6 |
57.1 |
59.8 |
61.6 |
61.8 |
61.5 |
64.0 |
67.1 |
58.6 |
63.7 |
65.1 |
63.3 |
+2 |
+6 |
+2 |
|
Oblast |
63.6 |
63.1 |
67.3 |
68.6 |
69.4 |
70.5 |
69.3 |
70.9 |
61.8 |
67.6 |
69.5 |
68.3 |
0 |
+5 |
+5 |
Assessments of social mood in all socio-demographic categories of the Oblast residents are better than at the beginning of 2015. However, the level of December 2014 has been reached only in 7 of out of 14 categories of the population so far.
On average for the last 6 surveys, in comparison to 2013, there have been some negative changes among people with higher and incomplete higher education (the share of positive assessments decreased from 77 to 72%) and among the residents of Cherepovets (from 75 to 71%).
Conclusion:
The results of the survey carried out in June 2015 indicate that after a period of tension, which took place in the late 2014 – early 2015 and was associated with the exacerbation of financial problems (rising prices, fluctuations in the exchange rate of the national currency, pessimistic expectations due to the impact of sanctions), public opinion of the Vologda Oblast residents is gradually improving. In the past two months the estimation of performance of federal and regional bodies of state administration became more positive, the position of “United Russia” strengthened (which also indicates that the population supports the current government), self-assessment of financial situation became more positive.
Positive changes in the estimates of the population influence the current mood of the people and their expectations concerning the future (this is evidenced by the dynamics of the consumer sentiment index, which improved for the first time for the last year).
The Vologda Oblast residents’ assessments concerning various aspects of their lives show the trend of recovery growth. Perhaps this suggests that people began to hope for success in overcoming the tense domestic situation, both for the country and for themselves. However, it is premature to speak about that with confidence. Improvement of public opinion can be associated with the beginning of summer (for many people it is the period when they go to their dachas and work at their subsidiary plots), and with the information policy of federal and regional authorities, which has changed in comparison with the late 2014 – early 2015.
April 28, speaking at the Truth and Justice Second Media Forum of Independent Regional and Local Media, Vladimir Putin described the current situation as follows: “I wouldn’t even call it a crisis – we have certain developments and complications... But overall, it is already clear that there is no collapse, nor will there be one. And that is what’s most important”4.
The President’s optimism is transmitted to the population through the media and, of course, affects the dynamics of public opinion. However, it is still unknown how the dynamics of the socio-economic situation in Russia will develop further.
Список литературы Public opinion monitoring of the state of the Russian society
- Krizis-2015: k chemu i kak gotovyatsya ekonomisty i proizvoditeli v Rossii? . Gazeta “Vedomosti” , January 26, 2015. Available at: http://www. vedomosti.ru/library/articles/2015/01/26/glavnoe-ne-kurs-a-stabilnost
- Informatsionno-analiticheskoe rezyume po itogam obshchenatsional’nogo issledovaniya “Rossiiskaya povsednevnost’ v usloviyakh krizisa: kak zhivem i chto chuvstvuem?” . IS RAN . 2015. Pp. 2, 4
- Stenogramma Mediaforuma nezavisimykh regional’nykh i mestnykh SMI . Rossiiskaya Gazeta , April 28, 2015. Available at: http://www.rg.ru/2015/04/28/mediaforum-site.html
