Public opinion monitoring of the state of the Russian society
Автор: Ilyin Vladimir Aleksandrovich
Журнал: Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast @volnc-esc-en
Рубрика: From the chief editor
Статья в выпуске: 4 (40) т.8, 2015 года.
Бесплатный доступ
Короткий адрес: https://sciup.org/147223747
IDR: 147223747
Текст обзорной статьи Public opinion monitoring of the state of the Russian society
In June – August 2015, there was a continuing upward trend in the support of the RF President’s performance: the approval level increased from 70 to 72%. The share of negative assessments increased from 16 to 18%,however, it remains much lower than in 2011–2013 (25–29%).
On average for the last six polls, the level of approval of federal authorities by the Vologda Oblast residents remains higher than in 2013 and 2014.
For reference: according to VTsIOM, in June – August the level of approval of the RF President’s performance decreased from 88% to 86% (the proportion of negative assessments increased from 7 to 9%).
According to Levada-Center, in June – July 2015, approval of the President of the Russian Federation decreased from 89 to 87%, the proportion of negative characteristics increased from 10 to 12%).
How do you assess the current performance of..? (as a percentage of the number of respondents)
|
Answer option |
2007 |
2011 |
2013 |
2014 |
Oct. 2014 |
Dec. 2014 |
Feb. 2015 |
Apr. 2015 |
June 2015 |
Aug. 2015 |
Average for the last six surveys |
Dynamics (+/-), the last six surveys in comparison with… |
|||
|
2014 |
2013 |
2011 |
2007 |
||||||||||||
|
RF President |
|||||||||||||||
|
I approve |
75.3 |
58.7 |
55.3 |
64.1 |
66.8 |
66.0 |
66.3 |
67.5 |
69.5 |
72.0 |
68.0 |
+4 |
+13 |
+9 |
-7 |
|
I do not approve |
11.5 |
25.6 |
29.4 |
22.3 |
18.5 |
19.7 |
20.5 |
16.2 |
16.1 |
17.8 |
18.1 |
-4 |
-11 |
-7 |
+7 |
|
Chairman of the RF Government* |
|||||||||||||||
|
I approve |
-* |
59.3 |
48.9 |
54.2 |
56.2 |
56.3 |
56.1 |
56.5 |
59.1 |
60.7 |
57.5 |
+3 |
+9 |
-2 |
- |
|
I do not approve |
- |
24.7 |
32.8 |
27.6 |
23.9 |
24.7 |
24.7 |
20.5 |
19.5 |
22.5 |
22.6 |
-5 |
-10 |
-2 |
- |
|
Governor |
|||||||||||||||
|
I approve |
55.8 |
45.7 |
44.4 |
40.1 |
39.7 |
39.3 |
38.3 |
37.1 |
40.5 |
41.5 |
39.4 |
-1 |
-5 |
-6 |
-16 |
|
I do not approve |
22.2 |
30.5 |
33.2 |
38.9 |
39.6 |
37.0 |
37.4 |
37.5 |
35.4 |
35.4 |
37.1 |
-2 |
+4 |
+7 |
+15 |
|
*Included into the survey since 2008. |
|||||||||||||||
The assessment of success of the President’s actions in addressing the key problems of the country in the last two months did not change significantly:
– the share of the Oblast residents who think that the President successfully copes with the task of strengthening Russia’s international standing remains at the level of 50–52% (the share of negative assessments is 30–32%);
– the share of those who positively assess the activity of the head of state in the field of restoring order in the country is 50–52%, and the proportion of negative judgements remains stable (37– 38%);
– 40–43% of the Oblast residents believe that the President is successful in protecting democracy and strengthening citizens’ freedoms (the opposite view is expressed by 38–42%);
34–36% of the population think that the President successfully copes with the task of economic recovery and growth of welfare of citizens (the proportion of negative judgments is greater and it remains at the level of 50–52%).
In general, the assessments given by the Oblast residents concerning the performance of the President on all the key issues remains more positive than in 2011–2014.
In your opinion, how successful is the RF President in coping with challenging issues?* (as a percentage of the number of respondents)
|
Answer option |
2007 |
2011 |
2013 |
2014 |
Oct. 2014 |
Dec. 2014 |
Feb. 2015 |
Apr. 2015 |
June 2015 |
Aug. 2015 |
Average for the last six surveys |
Dynamics (+/-), the last six surveys in comparison with… |
|||
|
2014 |
2013 |
2011 |
2007 |
||||||||||||
|
Strengthening Russia’s international standing |
|||||||||||||||
|
Successful |
58.4 |
46.2 |
45.7 |
50.4 |
52.3 |
50.8 |
50.4 |
52.7 |
51.1 |
52.2 |
51.6 |
+1 |
+6 |
+5 |
-7 |
|
Unsuccessful |
24.9 |
33.7 |
36.2 |
32.4 |
31.0 |
30.3 |
29.5 |
28.7 |
32.5 |
32.4 |
30.7 |
-2 |
-5 |
-3 |
+6 |
|
Index of success** |
133.5 |
112.5 |
109.5 |
118.0 |
121.3 |
120.5 |
120.9 |
124.0 |
118.6 |
119.8 |
120.9 |
+3 |
+11 |
+8 |
-13 |
|
Imposing order in the country |
|||||||||||||||
|
Successful |
53.2 |
36.6 |
39.4 |
48.0 |
49.4 |
52.1 |
50.3 |
50.1 |
49.9 |
51.7 |
50.6 |
+3 |
+11 |
+14 |
-3 |
|
Unsuccessful |
34.0 |
50.0 |
47.5 |
39.1 |
37.8 |
35.1 |
37.3 |
37.5 |
38.0 |
37.9 |
37.3 |
-2 |
-10 |
-13 |
+3 |
|
Index of success |
119.2 |
86.6 |
91.9 |
108.9 |
111.6 |
117.0 |
113.0 |
112.6 |
111.9 |
113.8 |
113.3 |
+4 |
+21 |
+27 |
-6 |
|
Protecting democracy and strengthening the citizens’ freedoms |
|||||||||||||||
|
Successful |
44.4 |
32.4 |
31.8 |
37.5 |
38.2 |
40.7 |
39.5 |
39.2 |
42.2 |
42.6 |
40.4 |
+3 |
+9 |
+8 |
-4 |
|
Unsuccessful |
37.0 |
48.3 |
51.0 |
45.4 |
44.3 |
41.9 |
40.9 |
39.9 |
38.3 |
41.7 |
41.2 |
-4 |
-10 |
-7 |
+4 |
|
Index of success |
107.4 |
84.1 |
80.8 |
92.1 |
93.9 |
98.8 |
98.6 |
99.3 |
103.9 |
100.9 |
99.2 |
+7 |
+18 |
+15 |
-8 |
|
Economic recovery and increase in the citizens’ welfare |
|||||||||||||||
|
Successful |
47.2 |
30.7 |
31.3 |
34.8 |
33.9 |
37.6 |
34.4 |
34.7 |
36.2 |
36.6 |
35.6 |
+1 |
+4 |
+5 |
-12 |
|
Unsuccessful |
39.1 |
56.1 |
56.8 |
53.4 |
54.4 |
50.8 |
51.5 |
49.9 |
49.9 |
52.6 |
51.5 |
-2 |
-5 |
-5 |
+12 |
|
Index of success |
108.1 |
74.6 |
74.5 |
81.4 |
79.5 |
86.8 |
82.9 |
84.8 |
86.3 |
84.0 |
84.1 |
+3 |
+10 |
+9 |
-24 |
|
* Ranked according to the average value of the index of success for the last 6 surveys. ** The indices are calculated as follows: the share of negative answers is subtracted from the share of positive answers, then 100 is added to the obtained value, so as not to have negative values. Thus, completely negative answers would give the total index of 0, and completely positive answers would give the total index of 200; the balance between the former and the latter expresses the value of the index 100, which is, essentially, a neutral mark. |
|||||||||||||||
The structure of the Russians’ preferences concerning political parties in June – August 2015 did not see any significant changes: the “United Russia” is supported by 39%, KPRF – by 7%, LDPR – by 6%, the “Just Russia” – by 4%.
It should be noted that on average over the last 6 polls, compared to 2014, the proportion of the Oblast residents who believe that the “United Russia” expresses their interests, increased by 5 percentage points (from 33 to 38%).
|
Party |
g |
UD О о ° 11 В 1=1 |
Б |
из О о ° 11 В =1 |
ОО |
Б |
О |
Б |
< |
Б |
< |
Dynamics (+/-), the last six surveys in comparison with… |
|||||
|
2014 |
2013 |
2011 |
2007 |
||||||||||||||
|
United Russia |
30.2 |
60.5 |
31.1 |
33.4 |
29.4 |
32.8 |
35.5 |
36.7 |
38.8 |
38.2 |
40.3 |
38.5 |
38.0 |
+5 |
+9 |
+7 |
+8 |
|
KPRF |
7.0 |
9.3 |
10.3 |
16.8 |
11.3 |
9.7 |
9.3 |
8.3 |
7.7 |
7.8 |
6.8 |
7.1 |
7.8 |
-2 |
-3 |
-2 |
+1 |
|
LDPR |
7.5 |
11.0 |
7.8 |
15.4 |
7.2 |
7.6 |
7.3 |
7.8 |
6.7 |
6.1 |
5.4 |
5.9 |
6.5 |
-1 |
-1 |
-1 |
-1 |
|
Just Russia |
7.8 |
8.8 |
5.6 |
27.2 |
4.6 |
3.5 |
3.9 |
3.2 |
4.1 |
3.7 |
3.3 |
3.5 |
3.6 |
0 |
-1 |
-2 |
-4 |
|
Other |
1.8 |
– |
1.9 |
– |
0.6 |
0.3 |
0.7 |
0.1 |
0.3 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.3 |
0 |
0 |
-2 |
-2 |
|
No party |
17.8 |
– |
29.4 |
– |
34.9 |
34.4 |
32.6 |
32.7 |
30.3 |
31.5 |
32.5 |
33.8 |
32.2 |
-2 |
-3 |
+3 |
+14 |
|
It is difficult to answer |
21.2 |
– |
13.2 |
– |
10.2 |
11.7 |
10.7 |
11.1 |
12.0 |
12.5 |
11.6 |
11.1 |
11.5 |
0 |
+1 |
-2 |
-10 |
Continuous positive trends can be observed in the dynamics of assessments of the social wellbeing of the population.
In June – August 2015, the proportion of the Vologda Oblast residents who describe their mood as “normal and fine” rose from 70% to 73%. The proportion of those, who “experience stress, anger, fear, depression”, did not change in the last two months (24%), and in comparison with the beginning of the year it decreased significantly (from 31% in February to 24% in August).
The proportion of the Oblast residents who believe that “everything is not so bad; it’s difficult to live, but it’s possible to stand it” increased from 79 to 82% in the last two months. Meanwhile, the share of those who feels “it’s impossible to bear such plight” was 13–15% in June – August, and it decreased as compared with the beginning of the year (from 17% in February to 13% in August).
There still remains a significant gap between “the poor and extremely poor and the “people with average income”. According to the assessment of the Oblast residents, 51–53% include themselves in the first category, 38–40% – in the second category. However, it should be noted that this gap (11–13 p.p.) during February – August 2015 has not been increasing. Unlike the previous years’ assessments, in 2007 the share of the “people with average income” was higher than the proportion of the “poor and extremely poor” (6 p.p.); in 2011 it was roughly the same (with the difference of 1 p.p.); in 2013 the share of the “poor and extremely poor” exceeded that of the “people with average income” (by 3 p.p.), and in 2014 this gap increased to 6 p.p.
The Consumer Sentiment Index, which characterizes people’s forecasts concerning the prospects of economic development and their personal wealth after a significant increase in April – June (by 7 points, from 73 to 80 p.) decreased again and in August 2015 it was 78 points. It is considerably lower that in 2011–2014 (88–90 p.).
Overall assessments of social sentiment and the stock of patience in August 2015 remain higher than in 2007–2014. The situation is reverse with regard to the residents’ assessments of their financial position and forecasts of economic development – they are worse than in 2007–2014.
Estimation of social condition (as a percentage of the number of respondents)
|
Answer option |
2007 |
2011 |
2013 |
2014 |
Oct. 2014 |
Dec. 2014 |
Feb. 2015 |
Apr. 2015 |
June 2015 |
Aug. 2015 |
Average for the last six surveys |
Dynamics (+/-), the last six surveys in comparison with… |
|||
|
2014 |
2013 |
2011 |
2007 |
||||||||||||
|
Mood |
|||||||||||||||
|
Usual condition, good mood |
63.6 |
63.1 |
68.6 |
69.4 |
69.3 |
70.9 |
61.8 |
67.6 |
69.5 |
73.1 |
68.7 |
-1 |
0 |
+6 |
+5 |
|
I feel stress, anger, fear, depression |
27.8 |
28.9 |
26.2 |
24.9 |
24.6 |
24.1 |
31.3 |
26.6 |
24.4 |
23.5 |
25.8 |
+1 |
0 |
-3 |
-2 |
|
Stock of patience |
|||||||||||||||
|
Everything is not so bad; it’s difficult to live, but it’s possible to stand it |
74.1 |
74.8 |
79.3 |
80.8 |
80.3 |
80.0 |
74.3 |
78.9 |
79.0 |
82.2 |
79.1 |
-2 |
0 |
+4 |
+5 |
|
It’s impossible to bear such plight |
13.6 |
15.3 |
14.2 |
12.6 |
12.1 |
13.6 |
17.3 |
14.9 |
14.7 |
13.3 |
14.3 |
+2 |
0 |
-1 |
+1 |
|
Social self-identification* |
|||||||||||||||
|
The share of people who consider themselves to have average income |
48.2 |
43.1 |
43.9 |
43.2 |
43.5 |
42.3 |
38.3 |
36.7 |
39.4 |
39.9 |
40.0 |
-3 |
-4 |
-3 |
-8 |
|
The share of people who consider themselves to be poor and extremely poor |
42.4 |
44.3 |
46.9 |
49.1 |
49.3 |
51.0 |
53.3 |
51.6 |
48.0 |
50.5 |
50.6 |
+2 |
+4 |
+6 |
+8 |
|
Consumer Sentiment Index |
|||||||||||||||
|
Index value, points |
105.9 |
89.6 |
90.3 |
87.6 |
84.0 |
82.3 |
75.7 |
73.4 |
80.1 |
77.9 |
78.9 |
-9 |
-11 |
-11 |
-27 |
|
* Question: “Which category do you belong to, in your opinion?” |
|||||||||||||||
Conclusion
The results of the August 2015 survey show that after a busy period of the late 2014 – early 2015 associated with the exacerbation of financial issues (rising prices, fluctuations in the exchange rate of the ruble, pessimistic expectations of the impact of the sanctions), the dynamics of assessments of public opinion by the Vologda Oblast residents has stabilized.
In the last two months there was a growing proportion of people who positively characterize their mood and who possess a high reserve of patience. There is no significant change in people’s assessment of their own revenues and in the forecasts of the development of the economic situation. From February to August 2015 the activities of the head of state find active support.
The improvement in public opinion is largely due to the information policy of the federal and regional authorities, the optimism of which is transmitted to the population through the mass media.
However, we cannot yet speak about the improvement in the dynamics of public opinion on personal welfare. The proportion of the Oblast residents who give negative assessments of their well-being remains stable and higher than in 2007–2013. The dynamics of consumer sentiment is also dominated by negative characteristics (the value of CSI is below the neutral level (100 points)).
According to experts (L. Gudkov, A. Mukhin, N. Mironov, V. Khomyakov, etc.), the approval of performance of the authorities can increase up to 90–91%, “however, this will not have a crucial importance anymore. A 2–3% growth is within the statistical error. These fluctuations indicate that the rating has stabilized at the present stage”2.
The President acts as the person who ensures safety. Another important factor is the “intensity of action on the part of the U.S.”: the greater the pressure, the higher the estimation of activities of the RF President, because different groups under external pressure “enter into a kind of armistice”. In addition, when there are no alternatives, people do not believe much in the chances of opposition”3.
In other words, the current President’s approval rating does not show the effectiveness of political system, economy and the Government. It is a kind of “rating of hopes”4. However, according to experts, the economic situation will determine the further dynamics of approval of the President. Today the President’s approval rating has virtually reached its peak. So, perhaps “its negative effects are not far off. A drop in the rating can be expected in about two years, and it will be slow and lingering”5.
Thus, the further dynamics of public opinion will depend primarily on what will form the basis of public trust in the authorities – “political necessity” or bringing macroeconomic policy “in line with the common understanding of the principles of social justice and truth, and to make it serve the interests of development of the production sector”6.
In-depth analysis of the dynamics of assessments of success that the RF President has in dealing with Russia’s main issues and the in-depth analysis of structural components of the Consumer Sentiment Index
In June – August 2015, the proportion of those who believes the President is successful in strengthening Russia’s international standing has increased mainly among people aged 30–55 (from 49 to 54%), among those with incomplete secondary and secondary education (from 43 to 49%), and among the poorest 20% (from 22 to 33%).
The decline in the assessments in the last two months is observed primarily among people with higher and incomplete higher education (from 64 to 58%) and among 20% of the wealthiest Oblast residents (from 68 to 61%).
Proportion of the Vologda Oblast residents who believe that the RF President successfully copes with the issue of strengthening Russia’s international standing (as a percentage of the number of respondents)
|
Answer option |
2007 |
2011 |
2013 |
2014 |
Oct. 2014 |
Dec. 2014 |
Feb. 2015 |
Apr. 2015 |
June 2015 |
Aug. 2015 |
Average for the last six surveys |
Dynamics (+/-), the last six surveys in comparison with… |
|||
|
2014 |
2013 |
2011 |
2007 |
||||||||||||
|
Sex |
|||||||||||||||
|
Men |
58.9 |
45.4 |
44.6 |
47.9 |
48.3 |
49.2 |
49.2 |
51.6 |
49.9 |
51.4 |
49.9 |
+2 |
+5 |
+5 |
-9 |
|
Women |
57.9 |
46.8 |
46.5 |
52.3 |
55.5 |
52.1 |
51.3 |
53.7 |
52.1 |
52.9 |
52.9 |
+1 |
+6 |
+6 |
-5 |
|
Age |
|||||||||||||||
|
Under 30 |
60.3 |
46.1 |
45.3 |
50.7 |
56.7 |
52.7 |
48.7 |
49.8 |
53.6 |
52.8 |
52.4 |
+2 |
+7 |
+6 |
-8 |
|
30-55 |
58.7 |
47.0 |
46.4 |
50.3 |
51.2 |
49.9 |
48.5 |
53.9 |
48.6 |
53.5 |
50.9 |
+1 |
+5 |
+4 |
-8 |
|
Over 55 |
56.1 |
45.0 |
44.7 |
50.2 |
51.1 |
50.9 |
54.1 |
52.9 |
53.0 |
49.9 |
52.0 |
+2 |
+7 |
+7 |
-4 |
|
Education |
|||||||||||||||
|
Incomplete secondary, secondary |
52.3 |
40.6 |
42.3 |
42.8 |
44.0 |
42.3 |
46.7 |
43.5 |
42.9 |
48.9 |
44.7 |
+2 |
+2 |
+4 |
-8 |
|
Secondary vocational |
57.7 |
46.8 |
44.7 |
50.5 |
51.7 |
51.1 |
47.7 |
55.1 |
47.2 |
51.2 |
50.7 |
0 |
+6 |
+4 |
-7 |
|
Incomplete higher, higher |
66.6 |
51.2 |
50.1 |
58.9 |
62.6 |
60.4 |
56.6 |
60.6 |
63.5 |
57.6 |
60.2 |
+1 |
+10 |
+9 |
-6 |
|
Income groups |
|||||||||||||||
|
20% of the poorest people |
42.4 |
28.6 |
33.1 |
31.9 |
32.2 |
30.5 |
21.2 |
33.0 |
22.2 |
32.8 |
28.7 |
-3 |
-4 |
0 |
-14 |
|
60% of the people with middle-sized income |
60.8 |
49.1 |
48.5 |
52.6 |
58.1 |
54.8 |
59.7 |
57.4 |
54.9 |
56.5 |
56.9 |
+4 |
+8 |
+8 |
-4 |
|
20% of the most prosperous people |
71.2 |
57.2 |
54.3 |
65.9 |
65.5 |
66.5 |
63.9 |
63.3 |
68.4 |
60.7 |
64.7 |
-1 |
+10 |
+8 |
-7 |
|
Territories |
|||||||||||||||
|
Vologda |
56.1 |
47.0 |
44.0 |
50.0 |
52.8 |
50.9 |
49.6 |
56.0 |
52.6 |
50.4 |
52.1 |
+2 |
+8 |
+5 |
-4 |
|
Cherepovets |
74.3 |
60.4 |
50.0 |
62.5 |
66.2 |
65.4 |
64.9 |
70.5 |
69.9 |
69.9 |
67.8 |
+5 |
+18 |
+7 |
-7 |
|
Districts |
51.5 |
38.6 |
44.1 |
43.9 |
44.5 |
42.7 |
43.0 |
41.0 |
39.8 |
43.4 |
42.4 |
-2 |
-2 |
+4 |
-9 |
|
Oblast |
58.4 |
46.2 |
45.6 |
50.4 |
52.3 |
50.8 |
50.4 |
52.7 |
51.1 |
52.2 |
51.6 |
+1 |
+6 |
+5 |
-7 |
In the past two months, the assessment of the President’s success in imposing order in the country improved among people aged under 30 (from 53 to 59%), among persons with secondary and incomplete secondary education (from 41 to 49%), among the poorest 20% (from 19 to 34%) and among the residents of the Vologda Oblast districts (from 38 to 43%).
Negative changes are observed primarily among people with higher and incomplete higher education (from 60 to 57%), and among 20% of the wealthiest (from 65 to 62%).
Proportion of the Vologda Oblast residents who believe that the RF President successfully copes with the issue of imposing order in the country (as a percentage of the number of respondents)
|
Answer option |
2007 |
2011 |
2013 |
2014 |
Oct. 2014 |
Dec. 2014 |
Feb. 2015 |
Apr. 2015 |
June 2015 |
Aug. 2015 |
Average for the last six surveys |
Dynamics (+/-), the last six surveys in comparison with… |
|||
|
2014 |
2013 |
2011 |
2007 |
||||||||||||
|
Sex |
|||||||||||||||
|
Men |
53.4 |
36.0 |
37.6 |
46.0 |
47.3 |
51.3 |
51.2 |
48.4 |
48.9 |
50.4 |
49.6 |
+12 |
+12 |
+14 |
-4 |
|
Women |
52.9 |
37.8 |
40.8 |
49.6 |
51.1 |
52.8 |
49.5 |
51.4 |
50.7 |
52.7 |
51.4 |
+11 |
+11 |
+14 |
-2 |
|
Age |
|||||||||||||||
|
Under 30 |
57.3 |
38.0 |
38.8 |
48.2 |
51.4 |
51.4 |
49.0 |
49.8 |
52.9 |
59.1 |
52.3 |
+4 |
+14 |
+14 |
-5 |
|
30-55 |
53.5 |
36.5 |
38.8 |
47.9 |
49.6 |
51.6 |
52.1 |
51.3 |
48.3 |
50.4 |
50.6 |
+3 |
+12 |
+14 |
-3 |
|
Over 55 |
48.8 |
37.0 |
40.7 |
48.0 |
47.9 |
53.3 |
48.5 |
48.6 |
50.1 |
48.9 |
49.6 |
+2 |
+9 |
+13 |
+1 |
|
Education |
|||||||||||||||
|
Incomplete secondary, secondary |
48.6 |
32.2 |
38.0 |
43.2 |
43.3 |
46.3 |
45.2 |
45.6 |
41.1 |
49.3 |
45.1 |
+2 |
+7 |
+13 |
-4 |
|
Secondary vocational |
53.1 |
38.9 |
39.3 |
48.5 |
51.9 |
50.3 |
49.6 |
47.9 |
47.9 |
49.5 |
49.5 |
+1 |
+10 |
+11 |
-4 |
|
Incomplete higher, higher |
58.7 |
39.9 |
40.9 |
52.8 |
53.8 |
60.8 |
56.2 |
57.4 |
60.4 |
56.9 |
57.6 |
+5 |
+17 |
+18 |
-1 |
|
Income groups |
|||||||||||||||
|
20% of the poorest people |
41.9 |
26.3 |
30.5 |
33.1 |
32.2 |
31.6 |
28.6 |
31.9 |
19.3 |
34.4 |
29.7 |
-3 |
-1 |
+3 |
-12 |
|
60% of the people with middle-sized income |
55.0 |
39.4 |
41.0 |
50.6 |
54.4 |
56.4 |
57.0 |
54.6 |
55.3 |
54.8 |
55.4 |
+5 |
+14 |
+16 |
0 |
|
20% of the most prosperous people |
63.3 |
42.1 |
46.6 |
60.2 |
60.7 |
67.6 |
59.5 |
62.6 |
65.1 |
62.2 |
63.0 |
+3 |
+16 |
+21 |
0 |
|
Territories |
|||||||||||||||
|
Vologda |
52.0 |
39.4 |
34.8 |
45.6 |
44.9 |
49.1 |
48.9 |
54.5 |
53.1 |
51.2 |
50.3 |
+5 |
+16 |
+11 |
-2 |
|
Cherepovets |
65.1 |
44.2 |
44.4 |
59.9 |
64.1 |
66.2 |
63.3 |
63.0 |
67.2 |
68.4 |
65.4 |
+6 |
+21 |
+21 |
0 |
|
Districts |
47.7 |
32.2 |
39.0 |
42.7 |
43.8 |
46.0 |
43.9 |
40.4 |
38.4 |
42.7 |
42.5 |
0 |
+4 |
+10 |
-5 |
|
Oblast |
53.1 |
37.0 |
39.4 |
48.0 |
49.4 |
52.1 |
50.3 |
50.1 |
49.9 |
51.7 |
50.6 |
+3 |
+11 |
+14 |
-3 |
In June – August 2015, the President’s performance with regard to protecting democracy and strengthening citizens’ freedoms was assessed more positively by people with secondary special education (from 41 to 46%), by the poorest 20% (from 18 to 31%), and by the residents of the Vologda Oblast districts (from 35 to 38%).
A decline in the assessments is observed among people with higher and incomplete higher education (from 50 to 45%), among 20% of the wealthiest (from 58 to 48%), and among the Vologda residents (from 43 to 39%).
Proportion of the Vologda Oblast residents who believe that the RF President successfully copes with the issue of protecting democracy and strengthening the citizens’ freedoms (as a percentage of the number of respondents)
|
Answer option |
2007 |
2011 |
2013 |
2014 |
Oct. 2014 |
Dec. 2014 |
Feb. 2015 |
Apr. 2015 |
June 2015 |
Aug. 2015 |
Average for the last six surveys |
Dynamics (+/-), the last six surveys in comparison with… |
|||
|
2014 |
2013 |
2011 |
2007 |
||||||||||||
|
Sex |
|||||||||||||||
|
Men |
45.6 |
32.2 |
31.1 |
35.5 |
36.1 |
39.3 |
38.7 |
38.1 |
39.9 |
40.5 |
38.8 |
+3 |
+8 |
+7 |
-7 |
|
Women |
43.4 |
33.4 |
32.3 |
39.1 |
39.9 |
41.8 |
40.0 |
40.1 |
44.1 |
44.3 |
41.7 |
+3 |
+9 |
+8 |
-2 |
|
Age |
|||||||||||||||
|
Under 30 |
47.2 |
32.4 |
30.4 |
37.4 |
38.0 |
41.5 |
35.8 |
38.2 |
48.0 |
47.9 |
41.6 |
+4 |
+11 |
+9 |
-6 |
|
30-55 |
44.4 |
32.2 |
31.9 |
36.6 |
38.9 |
39.8 |
40.6 |
41.1 |
38.4 |
40.8 |
39.9 |
+3 |
+8 |
+8 |
-5 |
|
Over 55 |
41.8 |
34.2 |
32.6 |
38.9 |
37.3 |
41.3 |
40.1 |
37.3 |
43.8 |
41.9 |
40.3 |
+1 |
+8 |
+6 |
-2 |
|
Education |
|||||||||||||||
|
Incomplete secondary, secondary |
39.8 |
27.5 |
30.7 |
34.1 |
35.0 |
33.7 |
37.7 |
33.7 |
35.6 |
37.5 |
35.5 |
+1 |
+5 |
+8 |
-4 |
|
Secondary vocational |
45.3 |
34.4 |
30.6 |
38.2 |
39.8 |
42.4 |
38.9 |
38.4 |
40.7 |
45.9 |
41.0 |
+3 |
+10 |
+7 |
-4 |
|
Incomplete higher, higher |
48.8 |
36.6 |
34.0 |
40.7 |
40.4 |
46.8 |
41.6 |
46.2 |
50.3 |
45.3 |
45.1 |
+4 |
+11 |
+9 |
-4 |
|
Income groups |
|||||||||||||||
|
20% of the poorest people |
37.1 |
19.5 |
25.6 |
25.2 |
25.1 |
23.5 |
17.1 |
25.2 |
18.2 |
30.9 |
23.3 |
-2 |
-2 |
+4 |
-14 |
|
60% of the people with middle-sized income |
45.4 |
35.4 |
32.2 |
38.5 |
41.9 |
42.7 |
48.1 |
41.5 |
45.1 |
45.2 |
44.1 |
+6 |
+12 |
+9 |
-1 |
|
20% of the most prosperous people |
53.3 |
40.3 |
36.8 |
48.2 |
46.8 |
56.3 |
43.9 |
50.0 |
57.8 |
48.1 |
50.5 |
+2 |
+14 |
+10 |
-3 |
|
Territories |
|||||||||||||||
|
Vologda |
38.4 |
35.7 |
27.6 |
32.7 |
32.8 |
35.5 |
36.1 |
39.4 |
42.8 |
39.3 |
37.7 |
+5 |
+10 |
+2 |
-1 |
|
Cherepovets |
54.9 |
40.4 |
32.4 |
47.9 |
50.0 |
52.3 |
48.5 |
51.4 |
54.1 |
53.7 |
51.7 |
+4 |
+19 |
+11 |
-3 |
|
Districts |
42.0 |
27.7 |
33.6 |
34.5 |
34.7 |
37.1 |
36.4 |
32.3 |
35.2 |
38.3 |
35.7 |
+1 |
+2 |
+8 |
-6 |
|
Oblast |
44.4 |
32.8 |
31.8 |
37.5 |
38.2 |
40.7 |
39.5 |
39.2 |
42.2 |
42.6 |
40.4 |
+3 |
+9 |
+8 |
-4 |
In June – August 2015 the positive assessment of success of the President’s performance with regard to economic recovery and increasing the citizens’ welfare increased mainly among the poorest 20% (from 15 to 29%), among people with secondary, incomplete secondary education (from 32 to 36%) and among people with secondary vocational education (from 34 to 38%) and among the residents of the Vologda Oblast districts (from 34 to 38%).
The decline in the assessments is observed among people with higher and incomplete higher education (from 43 to 36%), and among 20% of the wealthiest (from 49 to 38%).
Proportion of the Vologda Oblast residents who believe that the RF President successfully copes with the issue of economic recovery and increase in the citizens’ welfare (as a percentage of the number of respondents)
|
Answer option |
2007 |
2011 |
2013 |
2014 |
Oct. 2014 |
Dec. 2014 |
Feb. 2015 |
Apr. 2015 |
June 2015 |
Aug. 2015 |
Average for the last six surveys |
Dynamics (+/-), the last six surveys in comparison with… |
|||
|
2014 |
2013 |
2011 |
2007 |
||||||||||||
|
Sex |
|||||||||||||||
|
Men |
47.3 |
30.3 |
31.3 |
33.6 |
32.4 |
37.2 |
34.2 |
35.0 |
33.9 |
36.0 |
34.8 |
+1 |
+4 |
+5 |
-13 |
|
Women |
47.2 |
31.1 |
31.3 |
35.8 |
35.1 |
37.9 |
34.5 |
34.4 |
38.1 |
37.1 |
36.2 |
0 |
+5 |
+5 |
-11 |
|
Age |
|||||||||||||||
|
Under 30 |
51.6 |
31.0 |
29.9 |
34.8 |
32.1 |
37.4 |
30.0 |
33.7 |
39.2 |
39.9 |
35.4 |
+1 |
+6 |
+4 |
-16 |
|
30-55 |
47.9 |
29.6 |
31.6 |
33.4 |
34.4 |
35.4 |
36.1 |
36.1 |
35.3 |
34.9 |
35.4 |
+2 |
+4 |
+6 |
-13 |
|
Over 55 |
42.2 |
32.3 |
32.1 |
36.8 |
34.5 |
40.7 |
34.7 |
33.4 |
35.6 |
37.0 |
36.0 |
-1 |
+4 |
+4 |
-6 |
|
Education |
|||||||||||||||
|
Incomplete secondary, secondary |
43.1 |
27.4 |
30.0 |
32.6 |
32.3 |
33.3 |
32.8 |
34.7 |
31.6 |
36.4 |
33.5 |
+1 |
+4 |
+6 |
-10 |
|
Secondary vocational |
47.9 |
31.8 |
31.0 |
36.1 |
36.5 |
37.9 |
36.5 |
32.8 |
33.7 |
37.5 |
35.8 |
0 |
+5 |
+4 |
-12 |
|
Incomplete higher, higher |
51.5 |
32.9 |
33.1 |
36.0 |
33.3 |
42.2 |
33.7 |
36.7 |
43.4 |
35.6 |
37.5 |
+2 |
+4 |
+5 |
-14 |
|
Income groups |
|||||||||||||||
|
20% of the poorest people |
41.8 |
20.2 |
24.2 |
24.6 |
24.3 |
21.3 |
14.5 |
27.8 |
14.9 |
29.0 |
22.0 |
-3 |
-2 |
+2 |
-20 |
|
60% of the people with middle-sized income |
46.6 |
32.3 |
31.8 |
35.7 |
36.8 |
39.5 |
42.9 |
35.6 |
38.9 |
37.4 |
38.5 |
+3 |
+7 |
+6 |
-8 |
|
20% of the most prosperous people |
60.2 |
37.7 |
37.1 |
43.6 |
41.9 |
52.9 |
35.3 |
43.7 |
49.1 |
38.2 |
43.5 |
0 |
+6 |
+6 |
-17 |
|
Territories |
|||||||||||||||
|
Vologda |
41.1 |
31.2 |
27.3 |
30.5 |
27.3 |
33.2 |
29.8 |
34.4 |
33.3 |
31.1 |
31.5 |
+1 |
+4 |
0 |
-10 |
|
Cherepovets |
58.4 |
36.7 |
32.1 |
40.2 |
38.5 |
40.9 |
36.4 |
38.5 |
42.9 |
39.5 |
39.5 |
-1 |
+7 |
+3 |
-19 |
|
Districts |
44.5 |
27.5 |
33.0 |
34.2 |
35.2 |
38.2 |
35.8 |
32.7 |
34.0 |
38.0 |
35.7 |
+2 |
+3 |
+8 |
-9 |
|
Oblast |
47.2 |
30.7 |
31.3 |
34.8 |
33.9 |
37.6 |
34.4 |
34.7 |
36.2 |
36.6 |
35.6 |
+1 |
+4 |
+5 |
-12 |
The Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) is declining mainly because the Oblast residents make more negative assessments of their current financial situation. Since December 2014, the index of current personal financial situation has remained lower than all the other indices included in the structure of CSI. Meanwhile, in December 2014 – August 2015 it dropped from 77 to 72 points.
The second component that affects a decrease of CSI is the index of expectations for the development of economy in the coming year. In December 2014 – August 2015, it dropped from 82 to 75 points.
We should also note a marked decrease in the index of expediency of purchase of durable goods (from December 2014 to August 2015 – from 89 to 79 points), although its value remains higher than the values of the index of current personal financial situation and the index of expectations for the development of economy in the coming year.
Dynamics of partial indices used for the calculation of CSI
(answers are given in % of the number of respondents, indices are given in points)
|
Answer option |
2007 |
2011 |
2013 |
2014 |
Oct. 2014 |
Dec. 2014 |
Feb. 2015 |
Apr. 2015 |
June 2015 |
Aug. 2015 |
Average for the last six surveys |
Dynamics (+/-), the last six surveys in comparison with… |
|||
|
2014 2013 2011 |
2007 |
||||||||||||||
|
How would you assess your financial situation: is it better or worse than it was a year ago? |
|||||||||||||||
|
Better |
14.5 |
9.0 |
11.5 |
9.4 |
8.8 |
8.8 |
9.3 |
6.3 |
7.6 |
8.1 |
8.2 |
-1 |
-3 |
-1 |
-6 |
|
The same |
60.5 |
53.6 |
53.4 |
52.7 |
47.9 |
45.1 |
40.9 |
40.5 |
43.5 |
43.2 |
43.5 |
-9 |
-10 |
-10 |
-17 |
|
Worse |
13.4 |
27.2 |
24.5 |
26.4 |
28.0 |
31.7 |
33.5 |
37.6 |
32.8 |
35.8 |
33.2 |
+7 |
+9 |
+6 |
+20 |
|
It is difficult to answer |
11.5 |
10.3 |
10.6 |
11.5 |
15.3 |
14.4 |
16.3 |
15.7 |
16.1 |
12.9 |
15.1 |
+4 |
+5 |
+5 |
+4 |
|
Index of current personal financial situation |
101.1 |
81.8 |
87.0 |
83.0 |
80.8 |
77.1 |
75.8 |
68.7 |
74.8 |
72.3 |
74.9 |
-8 |
-12 |
-7 |
-26 |
|
In your opinion, will the next 12 months be a good, bad or other time |
for Russia’s economy? |
||||||||||||||
|
Good |
6.4 |
3.3 |
3.0 |
2.1 |
2.5 |
2.3 |
2.8 |
1.3 |
1.0 |
1.3 |
1.9 |
0 |
-1 |
-1 |
-5 |
|
Good, but not in every aspect |
29.4 |
17.2 |
15.0 |
12.4 |
9.8 |
12.9 |
6.8 |
10.1 |
11.5 |
10.7 |
10.3 |
-2 |
-5 |
-7 |
-19 |
|
Not good, but not bad either |
34.6 |
34.6 |
33.1 |
33.5 |
34.3 |
31.5 |
29.1 |
26.9 |
32.5 |
34.2 |
31.4 |
-2 |
-2 |
-3 |
-3 |
|
Bad, but not in every aspect |
9.4 |
16.9 |
15.7 |
15.6 |
16.9 |
15.0 |
18.3 |
18.1 |
19.3 |
18.5 |
17.7 |
+2 |
+2 |
+1 |
+8 |
|
Bad |
2.0 |
7.1 |
9.2 |
12.1 |
13.4 |
17.7 |
18.6 |
19.3 |
14.3 |
18.1 |
16.9 |
+5 |
+8 |
+10 |
+15 |
|
It is difficult to answer |
18.2 |
20.8 |
24.0 |
24.4 |
23.1 |
20.6 |
24.4 |
24.3 |
21.5 |
17.1 |
21.8 |
-3 |
-2 |
+1 |
+4 |
|
Index of expectations for the development of economy in the coming year |
124.4 |
96.5 |
93.1 |
86.8 |
82.0 |
82.5 |
72.7 |
74.0 |
78.9 |
75.4 |
77.6 |
-9 |
-16 |
-19 |
-47 |
|
In your opinion, will your financial situation be better or worse or about the same as now in a |
year? |
||||||||||||||
|
It will be better |
15.0 |
10.4 |
8.9 |
7.7 |
5.5 |
6.5 |
4.9 |
5.3 |
4.7 |
4.8 |
5.3 |
-2 |
-4 |
-5 |
-10 |
|
It will be the same |
46.4 |
43.0 |
45.3 |
41.4 |
38.4 |
35.3 |
29.2 |
33.9 |
38.3 |
37.5 |
35.4 |
-6 |
-10 |
-8 |
-11 |
|
It will be worse |
11.4 |
19.8 |
17.8 |
20.2 |
23.0 |
26.9 |
32.5 |
31.1 |
24.3 |
25.2 |
27.2 |
+7 |
+9 |
+7 |
+16 |
|
It is difficult to answer |
27.2 |
26.8 |
28.1 |
30.7 |
33.1 |
31.3 |
33.3 |
29.8 |
32.7 |
32.5 |
32.1 |
+1 |
+4 |
+5 |
+5 |
|
Index of expectations of changes in personal welfare |
103.6 |
90.6 |
91.1 |
87.5 |
82.5 |
79.6 |
72.4 |
74.2 |
80.4 |
79.6 |
78.1 |
-9 |
-13 |
-13 |
-26 |
|
Speaking |
about the next five y |
ears, will they be a good or a bad time for the economy? |
|||||||||||||
|
Good |
13.8 |
6.8 |
4.6 |
4.4 |
3.6 |
3.9 |
2.9 |
4.0 |
5.2 |
3.8 |
3.9 |
-1 |
-1 |
-3 |
-10 |
|
Not good, but not bad either |
49.3 |
42.3 |
39.2 |
37.8 |
36.5 |
37.1 |
31.1 |
30.2 |
35.7 |
34.5 |
34.2 |
-4 |
-5 |
-8 |
-15 |
|
Bad |
8.7 |
16.6 |
17.7 |
17.9 |
19.6 |
20.3 |
24.2 |
25.5 |
19.0 |
20.7 |
21.6 |
+4 |
+4 |
+5 |
+13 |
|
It is difficult to answer |
28.3 |
34.3 |
38.6 |
40.0 |
40.3 |
38.7 |
41.8 |
40.3 |
40.1 |
41.0 |
40.4 |
0 |
+2 |
+6 |
+12 |
|
Index of expectations of economic development in the next five years |
105.1 |
90.2 |
86.9 |
86.5 |
84.0 |
83.6 |
78.7 |
78.5 |
86.2 |
83.1 |
82.4 |
-4 |
-5 |
-8 |
-23 |
|
Speaking of major purchases for the home 1 do you think that now is a good |
(such as furniture, fridge, consumer electronics, TV-set), or a bad time to buy most of these things? |
||||||||||||||
|
Good |
15.7 |
12.3 |
14.1 |
15.6 |
13.3 |
12.4 |
7.1 |
6.5 |
9.1 |
7.7 |
9.4 |
-6 |
-5 |
-3 |
-6 |
|
Not good, but not bad either |
44.6 |
43.6 |
43.6 |
41.6 |
40.9 |
45.1 |
44.9 |
37.0 |
42.5 |
45.3 |
42.6 |
+1 |
-1 |
-1 |
-2 |
|
It is difficult to answer |
20.2 |
23.2 |
20.8 |
21.3 |
22.4 |
23.8 |
28.4 |
34.8 |
29.0 |
28.5 |
27.8 |
+7 |
+7 |
+5 |
+8 |
|
It is difficult to answer |
19.5 |
20.9 |
21.6 |
21.5 |
23.4 |
18.7 |
19.6 |
21.7 |
19.5 |
18.5 |
20.2 |
-1 |
-1 |
-1 |
1 |
|
Index of expediency of purchase of durable goods |
95.5 |
89.1 |
93.3 |
94.3 |
90.9 |
88.6 |
78.7 |
71.7 |
80.1 |
79.2 |
81.5 |
-13 |
-12 |
-8 |
-14 |
Conclusion according to the results of the in-depth analysis
The analysis of people’s assessments of the success with which the President copes with the key problems of the country (strengthening Russia’s international standing, imposing order in the country, protection of democracy, economic recovery and increase in the citizens’ welfare) substantiates the hypothesis that the dynamics of public opinion is greatly influenced by the mass media. Deterioration of assessments is registered among the wealthiest inhabitants of the Oblast and people with higher education, that is, among those who, first, have a more critical approach to the information about the political and economic life presented by the mass media, and second, have greater access to alternative sources of information (e.g., Internet resources).
Improvement of assessments of the success of the President’s activity is observed among people with secondary and incomplete secondary education and among the poorest 20% of the Oblast residents. These are the categories that are less inclined toward in-depth analysis of information provided by the mass media and that have fewer opportunities for comparing alternative points of view. Most likely, the majority of these people receive information from the “traditional” source, i.e. 3–4 federal TV channels.
The data obtained in the course of the in-depth analysis of the structural components of the Consumer Sentiment Index indicate that, despite stable and strong government support, people assess their financial situation as being worse and they have pessimistic expectations concerning the future of Russia’s economy. Consequently, the level of approval of authorities “rests” on other pillars – propaganda, the impact of the “Crimean spring” and the absence of alternative political choice.
Список литературы Public opinion monitoring of the state of the Russian society
- Gorbachev A., Garmonenko D. Prezident i ego reiting . Nezavisimaya gazeta , 2015, July 10. Available at: http://www.ng.ru/politics/20150710/1_president.html
- Andreeva Yu. Nadezhda na “reiting nadezhd” (Mnenie gendirektora Instituta prioritetnykh regional’nykh proektov N. Mironova) . Zavtra , 2015, no. 31 (1132.) Available at: http://zavtra.ru/content/view/vtsiom/
- Glazyev S.Yu. Zapredel’noe neravenstvo. Politika gosudarstva protivorechit interesam naseleniya . Zavtra , 2015, no. 29 (1130), July 23. Available at: http://zavtra.ru/content/view/zapredelnoe-neravenstvo/
