Public opinion monitoring of the state of the Russian society

Автор: Ilyin Vladimir Aleksandrovich

Журнал: Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast @volnc-esc-en

Рубрика: From the chief editor

Статья в выпуске: 1 (43) т.9, 2016 года.

Бесплатный доступ

Короткий адрес: https://sciup.org/147223806

IDR: 147223806

Текст обзорной статьи Public opinion monitoring of the state of the Russian society

In December 2015 – February 2016, the assessment of work of the President of the Russian Federation did not change significantly (68–70%) which corresponds to the average indicators for 2015 (69%) and which is significantly higher than in 2011–2014 (59–64%).

In the past two months there was a slight increase in the support of the Chairman of the Government of the Russian Federation (by 3 p.p., from 58 to 55%). In February 2016, the level of support of the Chairman of the RF Government was lower that in 2011 and 2015 (58–59%).

For reference: the nationwide level of approval of the RF President’s performance in December 2015 – January 2016 decreased by 2 p.p. (from 86 to 84%) according to VCIOM data and by 3 p.p. according to Levada-Center data (from 85 to 82%).

How do you assess the current performance of..? (as a percentage of the number of respondents)

Answer option

2007

2011

2013

2014

2015

Apr. 2015

June 2015

Aug. 2015

Oct.

2015

Dec. 2015

Feb. 2016

Average for the latest 6 surveys

Dynamics (+/-), the latest 6 surveys in comparison with…

2014

2011

2007

RF President

I approve

75.3

58.7

55.3

64.1

69.1

67.5

69.5

72.0

69.3

69.7

68.1

69.4

+5

+11

-6

I don’t approve

11.5

25.6

29.4

22.3

17.5

16.2

16.1

17.8

18.1

16.5

16.1

16.8

-6

-9

+5

Chairman of the RF Government*

I approve

-*

59.3

48.9

54.2

58.1

56.5

59.1

60.7

58.1

57.9

54.9

57.9

+4

-1

-

I don’t approve

-

24.7

32.8

27.6

21.7

20.5

19.5

22.5

21.0

21.7

22.6

21.3

-6

-3

-

Governor

I approve

55.8

45.7

44.4

40.1

39.3

37.1

40.5

41.5

38.7

39.7

35.1

38.8

-1

-7

-17

I don’t approve

22.2

30.5

33.2

38.9

36.2

37.5

35.4

35.4

36.0

35.3

38.2

36.3

-3

+6

+14

* Included into the survey since 2008.

In December 2015 – February 2016, the share of the Vologda Oblast residents who think that the President successfully copes with the task of strengthening international positions of Russia did not change significantly (51–53), which corresponds to the level of 2014–2015.

However, the assessment of success of the President’s actions in addressing the key problems of the country in December 2015 – February 2016 slightly reduced:

– the share of the Vologda Oblast residents who think that the President successfully copes with the task of restoring order in the country decreased by 3 p.p. (from 51 to 48%);

– the share of those who believe that the President is successful in protecting democracy and strengthening citizens’ freedoms decreased by 4 p.p. (from 41 to 37%);

– the share of those who believe that the President successfully copes with the task of economic recovery and promotes the increase in the welfare of citizens decreased by 3 p.p. (from 31 to 28%).

In general, the assessment of the success of the President’s work on all these issues remains at the level of 2014–2015 except for his work on economic recovery and improvement of the citizens’ welfare (34–35% in 2014–2015, 28% in February 2016).

In your opinion, how successful is the RF President in coping with challenging issues?* (as a percentage of the number of respondents)

Answer option

2007

2011

2013

2014

2015

Apr. 2015

June 2015

Aug. 2015

Oct. 2015

Dec. 2015

Feb. 2016

Average for the latest 6 surveys

Dynamics (+/-), the latest 6 surveys in comparison with…

2014

2011

2007

Strengthening Russia’s international standing

Successful

58.4

46.2

45.7

50.4

51.7

52.7

51.1

52.2

50.7

53.2

50.9

51.8

+1

+6

-7

Unsuccessful

24.9

33.7

36.2

32.4

31.3

28.7

32.5

32.4

33.1

31.5

29.1

31.2

-1

-2

+6

Index of success

133.5

112.5

109.5

118.0

120.4

124.0

118.6

119.8

117.6

121.7

121.8

120.6

+3

+8

-13

Imposing order in the country

Successful

53.2

36.6

39.4

48.0

50.2

50.1

49.9

51.7

48.6

50.5

47.7

49.8

+2

+13

-3

Unsuccessful

34.0

50.0

47.5

39.1

37.9

37.5

38.0

37.9

38.7

38.0

37.2

37.9

-1

-12

+4

Index of success

119.2

86.6

91.9

108.9

112.3

112.6

111.9

113.8

109.9

112.5

110.5

111.9

+3

+25

-7

Protecting democracy and strengthening the citizens’ freedoms

Successful

44.4

32.4

31.8

37.5

40.4

39.2

42.2

42.6

38.1

41.0

36.9

40.0

+3

+8

-4

Unsuccessful

37.0

48.3

51.0

45.4

41.5

39.9

38.3

41.7

44.3

43.7

44.3

42.0

-3

-6

+5

Index of success

107.4

84.1

80.8

92.1

99.0

99.3

103.9

100.9

93.8

97.3

92.6

98.0

+6

+14

-9

Economic recovery and increase in the citizens’ welfare

Successful

47.2

30.7

31.3

34.8

34.2

34.7

36.2

36.6

32.1

30.9

28.0

33.1

-2

+2

-14

Unsuccessful

39.1

56.1

56.8

53.4

52.3

49.9

49.9

52.6

54.3

55.7

57.0

53.2

0

-3

+14

Index of success

108.1

74.6

74.5

81.4

81.8

84.8

86.3

84.0

77.8

75.2

71.0

79.9

-2

+5

-28

* Ranked according to the average value of the index of success for 2014.

Compared with December 2015, in January 2016, the proportion of people who believe that their interests are expressed by the political party “United Russia” decreased (by 4 p.p., from 39 to 35%). Their share is lower than the average for 2015 (39%), but higher than in 2007–2014 (30–33%).

There was a slight increase (by 2 p. p., from 7 to 9%) in the share of those who support the Communist party (KPRF): in February 2016, it reached its peak over the period from April 2015 to February 2016 (9%).

As for the rest, the structure of the Russians’ preferences concerning political parties did not see any significant changes: LDPR is supported by 7%, the “Just Russia” – by 3–4%. This distribution of assessments remained during the entire year of 2015.

Which party expresses your interests? (as a percentage of the number of respondents)

Party

g

UD О

о °

I1

В 1=1

5

из О

О ° 11 В =1

ОО

5

5

5

<

о

со

Average for the latest 6 surveys

Dynamics (+/-), the latest 6 surveys in comparison with…

2014

2011

2007

United Russia

30.2

60.5

31.1

33.4

29.4

32.8

38.8

38.2

40.3

38.5

38.0

39.0

35.1

38.2

+5

+7

+8

KPRF

7.0

9.3

10.3

16.8

11.3

9.7

7.1

7.8

6.8

7.1

6.9

6.5

9.4

7.4

-2

-3

0

LDPR

7.5

11.0

7.8

15.4

7.2

7.6

6.2

6.1

5.4

5.9

6.1

7.1

6.9

6.3

-1

-2

-1

Just Russia

7.8

8.8

5.6

27.2

4.6

3.5

3.6

3.7

3.3

3.5

3.3

3.7

2.7

3.4

0

-2

-4

Other

1.8

1.9

0.6

0.3

0.2

0.1

0.2

0.1

0.1

0.4

0.5

0.2

0

-2

-2

No party

17.8

29.4

34.9

34.4

31.8

31.5

32.5

33.8

32.3

30.5

31.7

32.1

-2

+3

+14

It is difficult to answer

21.2

13.2

10.2

11.7

12.2

12.5

11.6

11.1

13.3

12.9

13.7

12.5

+1

-1

-9

In December 2015 – February 2016, the assessments of social condition of the Vologda Oblast residents worsened noticeably (in April 2015 – February 2016 we observe the minimal values of positive and maximum values of negative assessments):

– the proportion of people who describe their mood as “normal, good” decreased by 7 p.p. (from 70 to 63%);

– the proportion of those who say that “everything is not so bad; it’s difficult to live, but it’s possible to stand it” dropped by 5 p.p. (from 78 to 73%).

The deterioration of psychological well-being of the population is apparently due to the absence of positive changes in the dynamics of their financial situation. For instance, for the last two months there were no significant changes in the share of the Vologda Oblast residents who consider themselves “poor and extremely poor” (50–51%, this indicator remained stable over the past year); The consumer sentiment index continues to decline (78 points in December 2015, 75 points in February 2016, which is the lowest level since June 2015). The negative trend of the CSI indicates, first of all, the deterioration of expectations in the dynamics of personal financial situation and economic situation in general.

Estimation of social condition (as a percentage of the number of respondents)

Answer option

2007

2011

2013

2014

2015

Apr. 2015

June 2015

Aug. 2015

Oct.

2015

Dec. 2015

Feb. 2016

Average for the latest 6 surveys

Dynamics (+/-), the latest 6 surveys in comparison with…

2014

2011

2007

Mood

Usual condition, good mood

63.6

63.1

68.6

69.4

68.7

67.6

69.5

73.1

70.4

69.6

63.4

68.9

0

+6

+5

I feel stress, anger, fear, depression

27.8

28.9

26.2

24.9

25.9

26.6

24.4

23.5

25.4

24.3

28.9

25.5

+1

-3

-2

Stock of patience

Everything is not so bad; it’s difficult to live, but it’s possible to stand it

74.1

74.8

79.3

80.8

78.4

78.9

79.0

82.2

78.2

78.0

73.1

78.2

-3

+3

+4

It’s impossible to bear such plight

13.6

15.3

14.2

12.6

14.5

14.9

14.7

13.3

13.9

12.7

16.1

14.3

+2

-1

+1

Social self-identification*

The share of people who consider themselves to have average income

48.2

43.1

43.9

43.2

38.7

36.7

39.4

39.9

39.2

38.9

39.9

39.0

-4

-4

-9

The share of people who consider themselves to be poor and extremely poor

42.4

44.3

46.9

49.1

50.7

51.6

48.0

50.5

50.2

50.5

51.4

50.4

+1

+6

+8

Consumer sentiment index

Index value, points

105.9

89.6

90.3

87.6

77.1

73.4

80.1

77.9

77.7

77.7

75.0

77.0

-11

-13

-29

* Question: “Which category do you belong to, in your opinion?”

In annual dynamics, the share of people who characterize their mood as “good, normal” has been stable since 2013 (69–70%) and higher than in 2007 and 2011 (65–67%).

On average over the past six surveys, in comparison to 2014, a slight decrease in the proportion of positive assessments of social mood can be observed only among city dwellers (in Vologda – by 3 p.p., from 76 to 73%; in Cherepovets – by 5 p.p., from 76 to 71%) and also among the people who, according to self-assessments of their income, fall into the group of 20% of the wealthiest inhabitants of the Vologda Oblast (by 3 p.p., from 85 to 82%).

Compared to 2007 and 2011, on average for the last six surveys, the changes are positive: in most socio-demographic categories of the population, the share of people experiencing positive emotions increased by 5–8 p.p.

Social mood in different socio-demographic groups (answer “Good mood, normal condition”, as a percentage of the number of respondents)

Population group

2007

2011

2013

2014

2015

Apr. 2015

June 2015

Aug. 2015

Oct.

2015

Dec. 2015

Feb.

2016

Average for the latest 6 surveys

Dynamics (+/-), the latest 6 surveys in comparison with…

2014

2011

2007

Sex

Men

65.9

64.5

69.9

68.9

69.5

67.4

72.7

75.2

69.8

69.9

63.9

69.8

+1

+5

+4

Women

61.7

62.0

67.5

69.8

68.0

67.8

66.8

71.3

70.9

69.2

63.1

68.2

-2

+6

+6

Age

Under 30

71.3

70.0

75.5

75.1

77.1

73.5

79.4

78.9

82.8

76.9

69.9

76.9

+2

+7

+6

30-55

64.8

62.5

69.2

69.5

67.2

67.9

67.6

72.1

68.0

69.0

62.1

67.8

-2

+5

+3

Over 55

54.8

58.3

62.4

65.4

65.5

63.7

65.9

70.8

66.0

65.9

61.5

65.6

0

+7

+11

Education

Secondary and incomplete secondary

58.4

57.4

60.6

62.5

63.6

62.1

64.0

70.2

65.7

64.6

57.8

64.1

+2

+7

+6

Secondary vocational

64.6

63.6

68.1

70.4

70.1

68.2

73.6

75.3

70.3

67.7

60.7

69.3

-1

+6

+5

Higher and incomplete higher

68.6

68.3

77.4

76.2

72.7

73.1

70.6

74.1

75.8

76.9

72.9

73.9

-2

+6

+5

Income groups

20% of the poorest people

51.6

45.3

46.2

50.8

51.8

55.6

57.1

55.7

54.2

49.8

42.6

52.5

+2

+7

+1

60% of the people with median income

62.9

65.3

71.9

72.3

71.0

69.2

71.3

77.7

70.1

72.2

66.3

71.1

-1

+6

+8

20% of the most prosperous people

74.9

75.3

83.3

84.8

82.0

78.1

82.5

85.1

87.1

78.8

77.9

81.6

-3

+6

+7

Territories

Vologda

63.1

67.1

75.0

76.4

73.9

72.5

75.6

77.9

77.6

73.6

65.1

73.7

-3

+7

+11

Cherepovets

68.1

71.2

75.3

76.3

70.6

69.8

71.2

74.9

71.4

73.2

66.4

71.2

-5

0

+3

Districts

61.6

57.1

61.6

61.8

64.6

63.7

65.1

69.4

65.9

65.0

60.9

65.0

+3

+8

+3

Oblast

63.6

63.1

68.6

69.4

68.7

67.6

69.5

73.1

70.4

69.5

63.5

68.9

0

+6

+5

Negative trends in social mood are observed in the short-term dynamics of public opinion. In the first half of 2015 (February – June) there was a steady increase in the share of the Vologda Oblast residents who characterized their emotional state positively. However, in August – October 2015, negative trends were observed in most groups and they remain in early 2016.

Short-term dynamics of assessments of social mood in different socio-demographic groups (answer “Good mood, normal condition”, as a percentage of the number of respondents)

Категория населения

Feb.

2015

Apr. 2015

June 2015

Aug. 2015

Oct. 2015

Dec. 2015

Feb. 2016

Dynamics (+/-), Feb. 2016 in comparison with…

Feb. 2015

Dec. 2015

Sex

Men

61.7

67.4

72.7

75.2

69.8

69.9

63.9

+2

-6

Women

61.9

67.8

66.8

71.3

70.9

69.2

63.1

+1

-6

Age

Under 30

71.3

73.5

79.4

78.9

82.8

76.9

69.9

-1

-7

30-55

58.3

67.9

67.6

72.1

68.0

69.0

62.1

+4

-7

Over 55

60.7

63.7

65.9

70.8

66.0

65.9

61.5

+1

-4

Education

Secondary and incomplete secondary

54.8

62.1

64.0

70.2

65.7

64.6

57.8

+3

-7

Secondary vocational

65.2

68.2

73.6

75.3

70.3

67.7

60.7

-5

-7

Higher and incomplete higher

65.8

73.1

70.6

74.1

75.8

76.9

72.9

+7

-4

Income groups

20% of the poorest people

38.3

55.6

57.1

55.7

54.2

49.8

42.6

+4

-7

60% of the people with median income

65.2

69.2

71.3

77.7

70.1

72.2

66.3

+1

-6

20% of the most prosperous people

80.3

78.1

82.5

85.1

87.1

78.8

77.9

-2

-1

Territories

Vologda

66.4

72.5

75.6

77.9

77.6

73.6

65.1

-1

-9

Cherepovets

63.1

69.8

71.2

74.9

71.4

73.2

66.4

+3

-7

Districts

58.6

63.7

65.1

69.4

65.9

65.0

60.9

+2

-4

Oblast

61.8

67.6

69.5

73.1

70.4

69.5

63.5

+2

-6

The share of those who characterize their emotional state positively decreased especially noticeably in the following categories of population:

– people aged under 30 (by 13 p.p. from 83 to 70% in October 2015 – February 2016);

  • –    the Vologda Oblast residents with secondary and incomplete secondary education (by 11 percentage points from 70 to 59% in August 2015 – February 2016) and secondary vocational education (over the same period by 14 p.p. from 75 to 61%);

  • –    people who according to their own assessment of their income belong to the groups of the poorest 20% (by 15 p.p. from 58 to 43% in August 2015 – February 2016) and 60% of the residents with average income (over the same period – by 12 p.p. from 78 to 66%);

  • –    residents of Vologda (by 13 p.p. from 78 to 65% in October 2015 – February 2016).

In the past two months (December 2015 – February 2016) the assessments of social mood deteriorated in all socio-demographic categories of the population (by 4–7 p.p.). There are no negative changes only among people who belong to the category of 20% of the wealthiest inhabitants of the Vologda Oblast according to their assessments of their own income.

Conclusion

In the period from December 2015 to February 2016 the dynamics of public opinion on the majority of key issues related to self-assessment of financial status and social well-being has worsened:

  • –    assessment of the President’s success in dealing with the tasks of economic recovery and growth of the citizens’ welfare decreased by 3 p.p. (from 31 to 28%);

  • –    the consumer sentiment index decreased by 3 points (from 78 to 75 p.);

  • –    the percentage of positive ratings of social mood decreased by 7 p. p. (from 70 to 63%), the stock of patience – by 5 p.p. (from 78 to 73%);

  • –    the share of the Vologda Oblast residents considering themselves “poor and extremely poor” remains at a consistently high level (50%) (for comparison: the proportion of people of “average income” is significantly lower – 39%).

The lack of positive changes in the dynamics of financial situation is one of the main concerns of the population. This concerns not only the Vologda Oblast inhabitants, but also the Russians in general. According to VCIOM, “in January 2016 the Russians were most worried about inflation. But they became less concerned with foreign policy issues”. Low wages, rising prices and the situation in the economy – these are the three most acute problems noted by the Russians in early 2016.

The lingering character of economic problems that is felt by the population, has a negative impact on the dynamics of assessments of performance of the authorities. The level of support of the head of state in the Vologda Oblast remains stable so far (68–70%), but in the country as a whole, there is a decrease in the assessments of the President’s work (from 86 to 84% according to VCIOM and from 85 to 82% according to Levada-Center).

Thus, the ongoing negative processes in the Russian economy are becoming an increasingly important factor in determining the trend in the social well-being of the Russians and their attitude towards the work of the government. At the beginning of 2016, the fears for one’s well-being became more important for people than international issues. A similar situation was observed at the beginning of last year, when rising prices and falling standards of living became more important for people than the development of events in Ukraine (including the accession of Crimea and Sevastopol to the Russian Federation).

December 31, 2015, Vladimir Putin signed a new National Security Strategy, which says that “the state policy of the Russian Federation in the sphere of national security is carried out through the concerted action of all elements of its system under the leadership of the President of the Russian Federation and coordinating role of the Security Council of the Russian Federation” 2 .

Thus, the President takes personal responsibility for the implementation of key national security priorities and also those in the sphere of economy, standard of living and quality of life. This step of the head of state suggests, on the one hand, the dissatisfaction with the results of the work of the economic bloc of the Government; on the other hand, it allows us to hope it will be possible to overcome negative processes in the economy and to bring the domestic management system in line with Russia’s national interests.

Список литературы Public opinion monitoring of the state of the Russian society

  • Ukaz Prezidenta Rossiiskoi Federatsii ot 31 dekabrya 2015 goda №683 “O Strategii natsional’noi bezopasnosti Rossiiskoi Federatsii” . Rossiiskaya gazeta , 2015, December 31. Available at: http://www.rg.ru/2015/12/31/nac-bezopasnost-site-dok.html
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