Public opinion monitoring of the state of the Russian society
Автор: Ilyin Vladimir Aleksandrovich
Журнал: Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast @volnc-esc-en
Рубрика: From the chief editor
Статья в выпуске: 2 (44) т.9, 2016 года.
Бесплатный доступ
Короткий адрес: https://sciup.org/147223820
IDR: 147223820
Текст обзорной статьи Public opinion monitoring of the state of the Russian society
In February – April 2016, the assessment of work of the President of the Russian Federation did not change significantly (67–68%), which corresponds to the average indicators for 2015 (69%) and which is significantly higher than in 2011 – 2014 (59–64%). However, in the short retrospective, negative changes are observed. So, for the three latest surveys (from December 2015 to April 2016) the percentage of positive ratings of the President’s work decreased by 3 percentage points (from 70 to 67%).
Over the past two months, the level of support for the Chairman of the Government of the Russian Federation did not change (54–55%). This is less than in 2015 (58%), and corresponds to the level of 2014 (54%).
For reference: the nationwide level of approval of the RF President’s performance February – March 2016 remains stable (81–82% according to VTsIOM and Levada Center), but in comparison with December 2015, it decreased by 3 p.p. (from 85–86%).
How do you assess the current performance of..? (as a percentage of the number of respondents)
|
Answer option |
2007 |
2011 |
2013 |
2014 |
2015 |
June 2015 |
Aug. 2015 |
Oct. 2015 |
Dec. 2015 |
Feb. 2016 |
Apr. 2016 |
Average for the latest 6 surveys |
Dynamics (+/-) the latest 6 surveys in comparison with… |
||
|
2014 |
2011 |
2007 |
|||||||||||||
|
RF President |
|||||||||||||||
|
I approve |
75.3 |
58.7 |
55.3 |
64.1 |
69.1 |
69.5 |
72.0 |
69.3 |
69.7 |
68.1 |
66.9 |
69.3 |
+5 |
+11 |
-6 |
|
I don’t approve |
11.5 |
25.6 |
29.4 |
22.3 |
17.5 |
16.1 |
17.8 |
18.1 |
16.5 |
16.1 |
17.9 |
17.1 |
-5 |
-9 |
+6 |
|
Chairman of the RF Government* |
|||||||||||||||
|
I approve |
-* |
59.3 |
48.9 |
54.2 |
58.1 |
59.1 |
60.7 |
58.1 |
57.9 |
54.9 |
53.5 |
57.4 |
+3 |
-2 |
- |
|
I don’t approve |
- |
24.7 |
32.8 |
27.6 |
21.7 |
19.5 |
22.5 |
21.0 |
21.7 |
22.6 |
25.7 |
22.2 |
-5 |
-3 |
- |
|
Governor |
|||||||||||||||
|
I approve |
55.8 |
45.7 |
44.4 |
40.1 |
39.3 |
40.5 |
41.5 |
38.7 |
39.7 |
35.1 |
34.9 |
38.4 |
-2 |
-7 |
-17 |
|
I don’t approve |
22.2 |
30.5 |
33.2 |
38.9 |
36.2 |
35.4 |
35.4 |
36.0 |
35.3 |
38.2 |
39.6 |
36.7 |
-2 |
+6 |
+14 |
|
* Included into the survey since 2008. |
|||||||||||||||
In February – April 2016, the share of the Vologda Oblast residents who think that the President successfully copes with the task of strengthening international positions of Russia did not change significantly (51%), which corresponds to the level of 2014–2015.
However, the assessment of success of the President’s actions in addressing the key problems of the country in December 2015 – February 2016 slightly reduced:
– the share of the Vologda Oblast residents who think that the President successfully copes with the task of strengthening international positions of Russia decreased by 2 p.p. (from 53 to 50%);
– the share of the Vologda Oblast residents who think that the President successfully copes with the task of restoring order in the country decreased by 3 p.p. (from 51 to 48%);
– the share of those who believe that the President is successful in protecting democracy and strengthening citizens’ freedoms decreased by 5 p.p. (from 41 to 36%);
– the share of those who believe that the President successfully copes with the task of economic recovery and promotes the increase in the welfare of citizens decreased by 3 p.p. (from 31 to 28%).
In general, the assessment of the success of the President’s work on all these issues remains at the level of 2014–2015, except for his work on economic recovery and improvement of the citizens’ welfare (34–35% in 2014–2015, 28% in April 2016).
In your opinion, how successful is the RF President in coping with challenging issues?* (as a percentage of the number of respondents)
|
Answer option |
2007 |
2011 |
2013 |
2014 |
2015 |
June 2015 |
Aug. 2015 |
Oct. 2015 |
Dec. 2015 |
Feb. 2016 |
Apr. 2016 |
Average for the latest 6 surveys |
Dynamics (+/-) the latest 6 surveys in comparison with… |
||
|
2014 |
2011 |
2007 |
|||||||||||||
|
Strengthening Russia’s international standing |
|||||||||||||||
|
Successful |
58.4 |
46.2 |
45.7 |
50.4 |
51.7 |
51.1 |
52.2 |
50.7 |
53.2 |
50.9 |
50.7 |
51.5 |
+1 |
+5 |
-7 |
|
Unsuccessful |
24.9 |
33.7 |
36.2 |
32.4 |
31.3 |
32.5 |
32.4 |
33.1 |
31.5 |
29.1 |
30.9 |
31.6 |
-1 |
-2 |
+7 |
|
Индекс успешности |
133.5 |
112.5 |
109.5 |
118.0 |
120.4 |
118.6 |
119.8 |
117.6 |
121.7 |
121.8 |
119.8 |
119.9 |
+2 |
+7 |
-14 |
|
Imposing order in the country |
|||||||||||||||
|
Successful |
53.2 |
36.6 |
39.4 |
48.0 |
50.2 |
49.9 |
51.7 |
48.6 |
50.5 |
47.7 |
48.1 |
49.4 |
+1 |
+13 |
-4 |
|
Unsuccessful |
34.0 |
50.0 |
47.5 |
39.1 |
37.9 |
38.0 |
37.9 |
38.7 |
38.0 |
37.2 |
38.2 |
38.0 |
-1 |
-12 |
+4 |
|
Index of success |
119.2 |
86.6 |
91.9 |
108.9 |
112.3 |
111.9 |
113.8 |
109.9 |
112.5 |
110.5 |
109.9 |
111.4 |
+3 |
+25 |
-8 |
|
Protecting democracy and strengthening the citizens’ freedoms |
|||||||||||||||
|
Successful |
44.4 |
32.4 |
31.8 |
37.5 |
40.4 |
42.2 |
42.6 |
38.1 |
41.0 |
36.9 |
35.6 |
39.4 |
+2 |
+7 |
-5 |
|
Unsuccessful |
37.0 |
48.3 |
51.0 |
45.4 |
41.5 |
38.3 |
41.7 |
44.3 |
43.7 |
44.3 |
45.3 |
42.9 |
-2 |
-5 |
+6 |
|
Index of success |
107.4 |
84.1 |
80.8 |
92.1 |
99.0 |
103.9 |
100.9 |
93.8 |
97.3 |
92.6 |
90.3 |
96.5 |
+4 |
+12 |
-11 |
|
Economic recovery and increase in the citizens’ welfare |
|||||||||||||||
|
Successful |
47.2 |
30.7 |
31.3 |
34.8 |
34.2 |
36.2 |
36.6 |
32.1 |
30.9 |
28.0 |
27.6 |
31.9 |
-3 |
+1 |
-15 |
|
Unsuccessful |
39.1 |
56.1 |
56.8 |
53.4 |
52.3 |
49.9 |
52.6 |
54.3 |
55.7 |
57.0 |
57.9 |
54.6 |
+1 |
-2 |
+15 |
|
Index of success |
108.1 |
74.6 |
74.5 |
81.4 |
81.8 |
86.3 |
84.0 |
77.8 |
75.2 |
71.0 |
69.7 |
77.3 |
-4 |
+3 |
-31 |
|
* Ranked according to the average value of the index of success for 2015. |
|||||||||||||||
Over the past two months, the structure of the Russians’ preferences concerning political parties did not see any significant changes. At the same time, the proportion of people who believe that today no party expresses their interests increased (by 3 p.p., from 32 to 35%).
The “United Russia” retains its leading positions. The level of its support corresponds approximately to the indicators of 2014 (33–34%). However, in the short-term dynamics, negative trends are observed – for the period from December 2015 to April 2016 the proportion of the Vologda Oblast residents who say that the “United Russia” expresses their interests, decreased by 5 p.p. (from 39 to 34%).
The positions of other parties remain stable: LDPR is supports by 7–8%, KPRF – by 7-9%, the “Just Russia” – by 3-4%.
Which party expresses your interests? (as a percentage of the number of respondents)
|
Party |
g |
UD О сс о I 1 В 1=1 |
5 |
"с5 из О сс о |
ОО |
5 |
5 |
5 |
< |
о |
Q |
со |
< |
Average for the latest 6 surveys |
Dynamics (+/-) the latest 6 surveys in comparison with… |
||
|
2014 |
2011 |
2007 |
|||||||||||||||
|
United Russia |
30.2 |
60.5 |
31.1 |
33.4 |
29.4 |
32.8 |
38.8 |
40.3 |
38.5 |
38.0 |
39.0 |
35.1 |
34.1 |
37.5 |
+5 |
+6 |
+7 |
|
LDPR |
7.5 |
11.0 |
7.8 |
15.4 |
7.2 |
7.6 |
6.2 |
5.4 |
5.9 |
6.1 |
7.1 |
6.9 |
8.2 |
6.6 |
-1 |
-1 |
-1 |
|
KPRF |
7.0 |
9.3 |
10.3 |
16.8 |
11.3 |
9.7 |
7.1 |
6.8 |
7.1 |
6.9 |
6.5 |
9.4 |
7.2 |
7.3 |
-2 |
-3 |
0 |
|
Just Russia |
7.8 |
8.8 |
5.6 |
27.2 |
4.6 |
3.5 |
3.6 |
3.3 |
3.5 |
3.3 |
3.7 |
2.7 |
2.7 |
3.2 |
0 |
-2 |
-5 |
|
Other |
1.8 |
– |
1.9 |
– |
0.6 |
0.3 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.4 |
0.5 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
0 |
-2 |
-2 |
|
No party |
17.8 |
– |
29.4 |
– |
34.9 |
34.4 |
31.8 |
32.5 |
33.8 |
32.3 |
30.5 |
31.7 |
34.9 |
32.6 |
-2 |
+3 |
15 |
|
It is difficult to answer |
21.2 |
– |
13.2 |
– |
10.2 |
11.7 |
12.2 |
11.6 |
11.1 |
13.3 |
12.9 |
13.7 |
12.7 |
12.6 |
+1 |
-1 |
-9 |
In February – April 2016, the assessments of social feeling of the Vologda Oblast residents improved slightly):
– the proportion of people who describe their mood as “normal, good” increased by 4 p. p. (from 63 to 67%);
– the proportion of those who say that “everything is not so bad; it’s difficult to live, but it’s possible to stand it” increased by 5 p. p. (from 73 to 78%).
– the share of those who consider themselves “poor and extremely poor” decreased by 2 p.p. (from 51 to 49%).
The consumer sentiment index for the period from February to April 2016 did not change significantly (75 – 74 p.).
The assessment of social well-being in general corresponds to the level of 2014–2015.
However, in the short-term dynamics, some negative trends are observed. So, for the period from December 2015 to April 2016:
– the proportion of positive characteristics of social mood decreased (by 3 p.p., from 70 to 67%);
– the percentage of people who say that they “can’t bear such plight” increased (by 3 p.p. from 13 to 16%);
– the consumer sentiment index decreased (by 4 points, from 78 to 74%).
Estimation of social condition (as a percentage of the number of respondents)
|
Answer option |
2007 |
2011 |
2013 |
2014 |
2015 |
June 2015 |
Aug. 2015 |
Oct. 2015 |
Dec. 2015 |
Feb. 2016 |
Apr. 2016 |
Average for the latest 6 surveys |
Dynamics (+/-) the latest 6 surveys in comparison with… |
||
|
2014 |
2011 |
2007 |
|||||||||||||
|
Mood |
|||||||||||||||
|
Usual condition. good mood |
63.6 |
63.1 |
68.6 |
69.4 |
68.7 |
69.5 |
73.1 |
70.4 |
69.6 |
63.4 |
67.0 |
68.8 |
-1 |
+6 |
+5 |
|
I feel stress. anger. fear. depression |
27.8 |
28.9 |
26.2 |
24.9 |
25.9 |
24.4 |
23.5 |
25.4 |
24.3 |
28.9 |
25.4 |
25.3 |
0 |
-4 |
-2 |
|
Stock of patience |
|||||||||||||||
|
Everything is not so bad; it’s difficult to live. but it’s possible to stand it |
74.1 |
74.8 |
79.3 |
80.8 |
78.4 |
79.0 |
82.2 |
78.2 |
78.0 |
73.1 |
77.5 |
78.0 |
-3 |
+3 |
+4 |
|
It’s impossible to bear such plight |
13.6 |
15.3 |
14.2 |
12.6 |
14.5 |
14.7 |
13.3 |
13.9 |
12.7 |
16.1 |
16.4 |
14.5 |
+2 |
-1 |
+1 |
|
Social self-identification* |
|||||||||||||||
|
The share of people who consider themselves to have average income |
48.2 |
43.1 |
43.9 |
43.2 |
38.7 |
39.4 |
39.9 |
39.2 |
38.9 |
39.9 |
40.9 |
39.7 |
-4 |
-3 |
-9 |
|
The share of people who consider themselves to be poor and extremely poor |
42.4 |
44.3 |
46.9 |
49.1 |
50.7 |
48.0 |
50.5 |
50.2 |
50.5 |
51.4 |
49.4 |
50.0 |
+1 |
+6 |
+8 |
|
Consumer sentiment index |
|||||||||||||||
|
Index value. points |
105.9 |
89.6 |
90.3 |
87.6 |
77.1 1 |
80.1 |
77.9 |
77.7 |
77.7 |
75.0 |
74.4 |
77.1 1 |
-10 |
-12 |
-29 |
|
* Question: “Which category do you belong to. in your opinion?” |
|||||||||||||||
In the annual dynamics, the proportion of people who describe their mood as “good, normal, smooth” has remained stable since 2013 (69–70%) and higher than in 2007 and 2011 (65–67%).
Over the past two months, positive changes took place in all categories of the population (with the exception of people with higher and incomplete higher education) and in all income groups. And among the 20% of the poorest, the proportion of people describing their mood as positive increased by 8 p.p. (from 43 to 51%).
However, negative changes are observed in some socio-demographic groups of the population in the short-term retrospective.
Thus, in December 2015 – April 2016, the share of positive assessments of social mood decreased in the following categories of population:
– men (by 3 p.p., from 70 to 67%)
– people aged 30–55 (by 3 p.p., from 69 to 66%);
– people with secondary and incomplete secondary education (by 3 p.p, from 65 to 62%) and people with higher and incomplete higher education (by 5 p.p., from 77 to 72%);
– people who according to their own assessment of their income belong to the groups of the 60% who have average income (by 4 p.p., from 72 to 68%);
– residents of Vologda (by 5 p.p., from 74 to 69%).
Social mood in different socio-demographic groups (answer “Good mood, normal condition”, as a percentage of the number of respondents)
|
Population group |
2007 |
2011 |
2013 |
2014 |
2015 |
June 2015 |
Aug. 2015 |
Oct. 2015 |
Dec. 2015 |
Feb. 2016 |
Apr. 2016 |
Average for the latest 6 surveys |
Dynamics (+/-) the latest 6 surveys in comparison with… |
||
|
2014 |
2011 |
2007 |
|||||||||||||
|
Sex |
|||||||||||||||
|
Men |
65.9 |
64.5 |
69.9 |
68.9 |
69.5 |
72.7 |
75.2 |
69.8 |
69.9 |
63.9 |
66.5 |
69.7 |
+1 |
+5 |
+4 |
|
Women |
61.7 |
62.0 |
67.5 |
69.8 |
68.0 |
66.8 |
71.3 |
70.9 |
69.2 |
63.1 |
67.5 |
68.1 |
-2 |
+6 |
+6 |
|
Age |
|||||||||||||||
|
Under 30 |
71.3 |
70.0 |
75.5 |
75.1 |
77.1 |
79.4 |
78.9 |
82.8 |
76.9 |
69.9 |
75.4 |
77.2 |
+2 |
+7 |
+6 |
|
30-55 |
64.8 |
62.5 |
69.2 |
69.5 |
67.2 |
67.6 |
72.1 |
68.0 |
69.0 |
62.1 |
66.0 |
67.5 |
-2 |
+5 |
+3 |
|
Over 55 |
54.8 |
58.3 |
62.4 |
65.4 |
65.5 |
65.9 |
70.8 |
66.0 |
65.9 |
61.5 |
63.7 |
65.6 |
0 |
+7 |
+11 |
|
Education |
|||||||||||||||
|
Secondary and incomplete secondary |
58.4 |
57.4 |
60.6 |
62.5 |
63.6 |
64.0 |
70.2 |
65.7 |
64.6 |
57.8 |
62.4 |
64.1 |
+2 |
+7 |
+6 |
|
Secondary vocational |
64.6 |
63.6 |
68.1 |
70.4 |
70.1 |
73.6 |
75.3 |
70.3 |
67.7 |
60.7 |
67.3 |
69.2 |
-1 |
+6 |
+5 |
|
Higher and incomplete higher |
68.6 |
68.3 |
77.4 |
76.2 |
72.7 |
70.6 |
74.1 |
75.8 |
76.9 |
72.9 |
71.5 |
73.6 |
-3 |
+5 |
+5 |
|
Income groups |
|||||||||||||||
|
20% of the poorest people |
51.6 |
45.3 |
46.2 |
50.8 |
51.8 |
57.1 |
55.7 |
54.2 |
49.8 |
42.6 |
51.3 |
51.8 |
+1 |
+6 |
0 |
|
60% of the people with median income |
62.9 |
65.3 |
71.9 |
72.3 |
71.0 |
71.3 |
77.7 |
70.1 |
72.2 |
66.3 |
67.6 |
70.9 |
-1 |
+6 |
+8 |
|
20% of the most prosperous people |
74.9 |
75.3 |
83.3 |
84.8 |
82.0 |
82.5 |
85.1 |
87.1 |
78.8 |
77.9 |
81.0 |
82.1 |
-3 |
+7 |
+7 |
|
Territories |
|||||||||||||||
|
Vologda |
63.1 |
67.1 |
75.0 |
76.4 |
73.9 |
75.6 |
77.9 |
77.6 |
73.6 |
65.1 |
69.1 |
73.2 |
-3 |
+6 |
+10 |
|
Cherepovets |
68.1 |
71.2 |
75.3 |
76.3 |
70.6 |
71.2 |
74.9 |
71.4 |
73.2 |
66.4 |
70.5 |
71.3 |
-5 |
0 |
+3 |
|
Districts |
61.6 |
57.1 |
61.6 |
61.8 |
64.6 |
65.1 |
69.4 |
65.9 |
65.0 |
60.9 |
63.9 |
65.0 |
+3 |
+8 |
+3 |
|
Oblast |
63.6 |
63.1 |
68.6 |
69.4 |
68.7 |
69.5 |
73.1 |
70.4 |
69.5 |
63.5 |
67.1 |
68.9 |
-1 |
+6 |
+5 |
Conclusion in February–April 2016, there is an improvement in the estimates of social well-being of the population, which may be associated with the coming of spring, and with a number of events that occurred in March 2016 (for example, the withdrawal of the majority of Russian troops from Syria, celebration of the second anniversary of accession of Crimea to the Russian Federation). However, economic problems remained the center of attention of people, making these issues a key factor in the political struggle unfolding in the run-up to the State Duma election (September 2016).
The evaluation of the work of the President and Government, as well as the level of support of the “United Russia” party for the past two months did not change significantly. The proportion of positive judgment is higher than in 2013–2014, but in the short-term dynamics (from December 2015 to April 2016) there are slight negative changes. This indicates that the population is becoming more demanding. As the results of VTsIOM opinion polls show, society requires a new economic policy: “65% of the Russians believe that the authorities should develop economic policy that is different from the current one. Society is tired of the fact that the success or failure of the economy depends on the oil market and return of commodity prices to a comfortable level. A clear majority of the population want the current economic course to be changed, and they link this change to the reliance on internal resources and substantial stimulation of economic activity”2.
Further dynamics of public opinion will depend, firstly, on how effective the work is carried out to “upgrade the performance of not only the Government but also the entire state machinery”, especially regarding the implementation of the “targeted approach in the work of ministries and departments”3. Secondly, the dynamics of public opinion will depend on how the effective implementation of the main provisions of the National Security Strategy – 2015 that reinforces personal responsibility of the President for the implementation of key national security priorities, including those in the sphere of economy, standard of living and quality of life.
As Vladimir Putin noted, “we have to think about how to deal with our domestic affairs and problems, our roads, our healthcare, education, how to develop our economy, restore it and reach the required growth pace. If we do all this, we will not have to deal with anybody because then – only in this case – we will be invulnerable people with bright prospects who want to live in this country and are proud of it”4.
Список литературы Public opinion monitoring of the state of the Russian society
- Krizisnaya ekonomika: v poiskakh vykhoda: press-vypusk , 2016, no. 3046, February. Available at: http://wciom.ru/index.php?id=236&uid=115594
- Stenogramma Pryamoi linii s Prezidentom RF V.V. Putinym ot 14 aprelya 2016 g. . Ofitsial’nyi sait Prezidenta RF . Available at:: http://www.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/51716
