Пути развития телекоммуникационной отрасли

Nowadays we cannot imagine our life without telecommunications industry. Telecommunications is a great discovery of humanity that allows us to communicate with each other from different parts of the world. So, it plays a significant role in a digital society. Because of its importance the telecommunications industry is continuing to change at breakneck speed 1.

The telecommunications industry has changed radically in the past 15 years with the development of smart devices. Over this period, operators have expanded their service portfolios and overhauled their price plans to meet high demand. Operators have raised their capital expenditures in order to upgrade network capabilities.

Operator performance varies significantly by region. Meanwhile, The Russian Federation could strongly be comparable with European countries in telecom market. According to the official statistics, Russian telecom industry is the largest in Europe, which involves more 145 million citizens. The market is dominated by the western regions where the main cities and economic centers are concentrated.

As noted in the article “Method of forecasting the main indicators of the Russian economic sectors” written by the authors Tregub I.V. and Tregub A.V., the successful development of main sectors of Russian economy is possible only with the condition that communications telecommunications industries will be at the leading positions there 2.

Moreover, the main reason for fast development of Russian telecoms is its vast geographic territory, which should be socialized and controlled by the government. For this reason Russian Government have invested billions of Rubles in a two thousands of kilometers of telecom network with the aim to provide opportunity for distant villages to have communications with others, to be involved in the world events.

Therefore, it is clearly understandable that for the Russian Federation it particular important to develop telecommunications industry. In addition, with the goal to clarify how it should be done it is necessary to find out from what indicators communication industry mostly depends and to provide the forecast of its development for the near future in order to understand would be the future result desirable or it would be better to change something now.

It is necessary to note that mobile communications, the number of subscribers that exceeds the number of fixed-line subscribers by almost 2 times, is a leader in the telecommunications market. Therefore, good example for the investigation could be the largest mobile operator in Russia – MTS that is controlled by AFK “System” of Vladimir Evtushenko. Nowadays it remains the first place in the Russian mobile market in terms of revenue and number of subscribers.

Forecasting of indicators is based on a mathematical model of development of the industry. In our case, the industry is represented by MTS as the main representative of the telecommunications industry. In order to do mathematical model suitable for predicting the indicators of the sector, it is necessary to collect statistical data about the object. Further, this information is processed using correlation analysis to determine the closeness and direction between indicators and regression analysis, which determine the analytical expression of the connection of dependent variable (market capitalization of “MTS”) with independent variables Xi, which are presented in the table below 3

Mathematical model is as follow:

Y=a1+a2*X1+a3*X2+a4*X3

The author employ data on financial and economic indicators of MTS

• ³ Market capitalization/Moscow Stack Exchange//2017 [Electronic resource] http://moex.com/a20

Company and Russia over the period 2011 – 2016 (annual frequency).

Using regression model on this data the author got several results:

R^2 was equal to 0,96. It means that market capitalization could be explained by investments in telecom industry, dividends per share and GDP in 96%. So, the selected external factors significantly affect market capitalization of MTS, which confirms the correctness of their inclusion in the estimated model.

More than that the author calculated T-test, that explained that all coefficients are significant and they could be used in model. In addition, F-test supported the idea that the quality of the model's specification is high and value of R^2 is correct.

Taking everything into consideration the author came to conclusion that it is possible to estimate the situation in telecommunication industry with such indicators as investments in telecom industry, dividends per share and GDP.

We employed the data for “MTS” and Russia over the period 2011 – 2016 to study the influence of the economic indicators on the market capitalization of “MTS”. The evidence conducted indicates that there is a significant positive relationship, especially with the investments in telecommunication sphere and value of Russia GDP.

Speaking on the control variables, we obtained that the market capitalization of telecommunication company positively and significantly depend on investments in telecom industry, dividends per share and GDP.

In other words if we would like to understand the direction of future development of telecom industry we could use these indicators and create a forecasting model. For the more, using this model we could better understand what should be changed and on what percent in order to achieve better results.