Developing predictive model of passenger transport

Building of predictive model starts and finishes the forecasting of service sector. Natural sciences operate mainly with theoretical models, which are based on the existing common factors of the surrounding world with a high level of formalization and enormous potential of measurements through computer technology and software products specifically designed for such purposes. High level of mathematization of economic research and commitment to formalization of the processes and phenomena are the reason of it. Therefore, predictive model appears as a system of tables, graphs, rules, and so forth, and is a set of measurable indicators that fully reflect the structure and nature of the research subject. Forecast in this case is transforming certain specific values of the indicators of specified model in the changed indicators of search and normative models. Development of the service sector (transport, economic, information, communication, management, trade, scientific) and gradual freedom from harmful heavy industries in the territory of the city are the trend of the last decades. This is a natural development process of the metropolis; there are enough plants in the city polluting the environment. Predictive model of service sector is the object of this study formalized in such a way as to make possible to quantitative estimate of analytical and prognostic properties. Predictive model is developed by the example of land passenger transport of Moscow. Road passenger transport in Moscow is one of the most important services for both the population and the economy of the city as a whole. Therefore it is necessary for the further development of this service to carry out continuous prediction of the future to preserve the positive trends and to prevent crisis situations. Development of a predictive model of land passenger transport is a process involving certain stages. The results of each stage of the predictive model development will require the collection of statistical information about the status of land passenger transport in Moscow, the definition of specific functioning processes of the city's transportation system.