Prediction of oil occurrence using structural parameters of ЮС1 reservoir in the northern part of Surgut arch: development of probabilistic-statistical models

The authors discuss stages and features of probabilistic-statistical model building in local-zonal prediction of oil occurrence in the northern part of Surgut Arch with the use of structural parameters. The influence of structural factor on oil occurrence in ЮС1 reservoir of the study area is considered. Structural parameters describing common factors of oil occurrence are identified. Method of selection of optimal approximation window for value grids in trend analysis is presented, which is based on parameters comparison in terms of Student t-test. It is found that local components of different approximation degrees control oil occurrence in different local areas. Use of regression component of the surface to solve tasks of oil occurrence prediction is proposed. The main common factors of oil occurrence in the northern part of Surgut Arch, influence of present-day local components on oil occurrence, and paleostructural parameters obtained from trend analysis are identified; and statistical significance of regression components for oil occurrence prediction is determined. Zonal and a number of local models of oil occurrence prediction using structural parameters are created. Integration of the obtained models in conducted, and local-zonal model of oil occurrence prediction using structural parameters is built. Zonal patterns of oil occurrence in the territory are identified, which were updated with the results of local model building in multiply smaller areas