The biota reaction on local climatic changes in the Central Forest nature reserve

Meteorological and phenological characteristics of the Central Forest reserve for the period 2006-2016 have been analyzed. The estimation of basic meteorological data (88 indicators) and 53 phenological events in the life of plants, animals and fungi has been done. Long-term variability of most indicators is stochastic and not reliable. Interannual variability of phenological events depends on environmental factors. It was identifying two main reasons of directed multi-year fluctuations: “the local climate cold” and “sustainability ratio of heat and moisture”. The statistical significance of phenological date changes has been proven for three species-indicators: common viburnum ( Viburnum opulus ), mosquito biters ( Aedes ) and barn swallows ( Hirundo rustica ). Interspecific synchrony in phenological event variabilities has been established.