Regional budget for 2017-2019: surplus or economic growth?

At the end of 2016, the Vologda Oblast approved its budget for 2017-2019. At first glance, its parameters are quite optimistic if we recall that from 2009 to 2015 the budget was significantly unbalanced. The planned annual surplus of 2.5 billion rubles is planned in the upcoming budget cycle. The budget surplus exceeding this sum was registered only in 2004. These projections are not based on the expected sustained economic growth, but on the terms of agreements with the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation on the allocation of financial assistance to the oblast in the form of budget loans. The forecast of socio-economic development elaborated by the Vologda Oblast Government retains low growth rates of all macroeconomic indicators; due to this fact it is unlikely that sufficient financial resources could be generated: the average annual growth rate of the budget's own revenues will not reach even 4%. The positive balance of the treasury is expected to be reached with the help of fiscal consolidation: the amount of government spending as a share of gross regional product will decrease to 9% to 2020 against 13% on average over the period of 2005-2016...