Research trend of unemployment. Russia

Unemployment rate is the percentage of the total labor force that is unemployed but actively seeking employment and willing to work. Why this indicator is such significant nowadays? There are a lot of reasons, one of it is that is a “necessary evil” of a free market – employers are interested in efficient labor force while workers are trying to find a job with the highest salary, therefore competition on the market either between employers for employees or vice versa is inevitable.

Natural rate of unemployment - objectively emerging, relatively stable, not connected with the dynamics of economic growth, the unemployment rate due to natural causes: turnover, migration, and demographic factors. It is believed that the natural rate of unemployment is 5.4% of the labor force.

Economically active population - the population of the country, which has or is willing and has the potential to have an independent source of income.

Depending on the level of development of the country "floating" lower the minimum age for which data are collected and published.

In general, the unemployment rate is calculated by dividing the number of unemployed individuals by all individuals which are currently working.

Let’s consider the main theme for us – Unemployment of Russian Federation. Russia during the last decade unemployment was about 8 percent. For finding out of the fluctuation causes, I’ve chosen 3 indicators, which can influence on the unemployment rate – GDP, Inflation, Population

Problem formulation: To learn the dependence between Russian unemployment and such factors as Inflation, GDP Growth and Population The period is 8 years.

Dependent variable

Unemployment, total

There are 3 independent variables in the work – GDP, inflation, population.

In this model we can observe following:

X1=0,63. In this case the increase in the value X1 will decrease variable Y. X2=0,03, therefore there is slight dependence for Y. X3=0,30, so the increase in population means the increase in unemployment

X2

Here is shown the same situation but with another independent variable:

In the X-axis – Inflation, In the Y-axis - Unemployment

So, despite the world history – inflation in Russia has no strong influence on the unemployment and even during the crisis years the increasing of unemployment has no strong links with the inflation.

X3

The last diagram is also shown here: X-axis population; Y-axis – Unemployment. That’s more interesting. The highest is the population of our country, the highest is the Russian unemployment.

We create the model of impact Inflation, GDP Growth and Population to the Russian Unemployment.

From the making of work we can said that some answers is not the same with the world experience (e.g. in the work inflation plays a little role in the fluctuation of unemployment, while in reality it is one of the most significant factors), but there can be some error during the long computations.

Nevertheless, we find out a huge amount of information about this model:

We made F-test and checked whether the model is qualitative or not.

As we can conclude from the results of the Goldfeld-Quandt test the model is considered to be homoscedastic.

During DW-test we considered that our model is ambiguous

During the last test, understood that our model is adequate.

Sources

• 1.     http://forexaw.com/TERMs/Exchange_Economy/Macroeconomic_indicators/E mployment/l525_Уровень_безработицы_Unemployment

• 2.     http://www.abird.ru/articles/unemployment

• 3.     http://www.rate1.com.ua/obshchestvo/uroven-zhizni/2225/

• 4.     http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Student's_t-test

• 5.     http://www.worldbank.org

• 6.     http://www.oecd.org

  "Экономика и социум" №4(23) 2016