Road traffic accident rate in Russia: main socio-economic factors of its formation and spatio-temporal features

Автор: Petrov Artur I., Kolesov Viktor I.

Журнал: Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast @volnc-esc-en

Рубрика: Social development

Статья в выпуске: 1 т.14, 2021 года.

Бесплатный доступ

For more than a decade, the Russian state has been actively engaged in issues of preservation of people, but the positive effects of this work quickly disappeared (2014-2016), and the trend again changed to a negative one. The First (2006-2012) and the Second (2013-2020) Federal Target Programs on Road Safety were aimed at reducing the number of deaths in road traffic accidents, and made a positive contribution to the field of preservation of people. For instance, in 2006-2019, the annual number of deaths in road traffic accidents decreased from 32,724 to 16,981 people per year, or almost twice. Nevertheless, there are still many problems in ensuring road safety. One of them is the complexity of the system processes of road safety management in such a large country as the Russian Federation. Russia consists of 85 heterogeneously developed economically and socially entities on the territory of which representatives of 190 peoples live. The article analyses a wide range of issues related to the assessment of the impact of the sociocenosis features on one of the most important characteristics of road traffic accident rate - the severity. The purpose of the research is to study the influence of the characteristics of representative socio-economic factors on road traffic accident severity in Russian regions, and to develop the most effective differentiated approach to the financing of regional road safety programs on this basis. The scientific novelty of the research consists in the model confirmation of the previously put forward ideas about the positive impact of the basic socio-economic institutions that shape road users’ transport behavior on its safety. The authors consider these ideas in relation to Russia as a whole and to the relationship of regional road traffic accident rate with the economic and demographic characteristics of Russians’ life. The paper presents the rank patterns of influence on road traffic accident severity of such characteristics of regional sociocenosis as the population’s median age, the share of population with income below the minimum wage, and the average monthly income. We show the conceptual considerations for improving road safety in the Russian Federation in the spatiotemporal continuum.

Еще

Road safety, road traffic accident, russian federation, road safety management, road traffic accident severity, regional sociocenosis, impact factor, spatio-temporal features

Короткий адрес: https://sciup.org/147225519

IDR: 147225519   |   DOI: 10.15838/esc.2021.1.73.14

Список литературы Road traffic accident rate in Russia: main socio-economic factors of its formation and spatio-temporal features

  • Prokhorov B.B., Shmakov D.I. Estimating the cost of statistical life and economic damage from health losses. Problemy prognozirovaniya= Studies on Russian Economic Development, 2002, no. 3, pp. 125–135 (in Russian).
  • Prokhorov B.B., Shmakov D.I. Causes of people’s death in peacetime and economic assessment of the value of losses. Problemy prognozirovaniya= Studies on Russian Economic Development, 2013, no. 4 (139), pp. 139–147 (in Russian).
  • Bykov A.A. On the methodology of economic assessment of the life of the average person (explanatory note). Problemy analiza riska=Issues of Risk Analysis, 2007, vol. 4, no. 2, pp. 178–191 (in Russian).
  • Blincoe L.J., Miller T.R., Zaloshnja E., Lawrence B.A. The Economic and Societal Impact Of Motor Vehicle Crashes. Washington DC: National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. 2010. 304 p.
  • Rotenberg R.V. Osnovy nadezhnosti sistemy Voditel’ – Avtomobil’ – Doroga – Sreda [Reliability Fundamentals of the System Driver – Vehicle – Road – Environment]. Moscow: Mashinostroenie, 1986. 216 p.
  • Blinkin M.Ya. Bezopasnost’ dorozhnogo dvizheniya: istoriya voprosa, mezhdunarodnyi opyt, bazovye institutsii [Road Safety: Background, International Experience, Basic Institutions]. Moscow: HSE Publishing, 2013. 240 p.
  • Beeck E. van, Borsboom G.J.J., Mackenbach J.P. Economic development and traffic accident mortality in the industrialized world, 1962–1990. International Journal of Epidemiology, 2000, vol. 29, рp. 503–509. DOI: 10.1093/intjepid/29.3.503
  • Smeed R.J. Some statistical aspects of road safety research. Journal Royal Statistics, 1949, A (I), рp. 1–34.
  • Smeed R.J. Variations in the pattern of accident rates in different countries and their causes. Traffic Engineering and Control, 1968, no. 10, рp. 364–371.
  • Adams J.G.U. Risk and Freedom: the Record of Road Safety Regulation. Cardiff: Transportation Publishing Projects, 1985. 202 p.
  • Chang L.-Y., Chen W.-C. Data mining of tree-based models to analyze freeway accident frequency. Journal of Safety Research, 2005, vol. 36, no. 4, pp. 365–375.
  • Chong M.M., Abraham A., Paprzycki M. Traffic accident analysis using machine learning paradigms. Informatica, 2005, vol. 29, no. 5, pp. 89–98.
  • Abellan J., Lopez G., de Ona J. Analysis of traffic accident severity using decision rules via decision trees. Expert Systems with Applications, 2013, vol. 40, no. 15, pp. 6047–6054.
  • Gnatyuk V.I. Filosofskie osnovaniya tekhnotsenologicheskogo podkhoda [Philosophical Foundations of the Technocenological Approach]. Kaliningrad: Izd-vo KITs «Tekhnotsenoz», 2014. 284 p.
  • Kudrin B.I. Research of technical systems as communities of products – technocenoses. In: Sistemnye issledovaniya: metodologicheskie problemy. Ezhegodnik 1980 [Systems research: Methodological problems. Yearbook 1980]. Moscow: Nauka, 1981. Pp. 236–254 (in Russian).
  • Kudrin B.I. Problems of creation and management of cenoses of artificial origin. In: Kiberneticheskie sistemytsenozov: Sintez i upravlenie [Cybernetic cenoses systems: Synthesis and control]. Moscow: Nauka, 1991. Pp. 5–17 (in Russian).
  • Evans L. Traffic Safety. Bloomfield, Mich.: Science Serving Society, 2004. 457 p.
  • Korotaev A.V. et al. Vliyanie stareniya naseleniya na global’nuyu sistemu tsennostei i politicheskuyu dinamiku [Impact of Population Aging on the Global Value System and Political Dynamics]. Moscow: RANKh i GS pri Prezidente RF, 2018. 47 p.
  • Koornstra M. J. Prediction of traffic fatalities and prospects for mobility becoming sustainable safe. Sadhana, 2007, vol. 32, pp. 365–395.
  • Elvik R. A review of game-theoretic models of road user behavior. Accident Analysis & Prevention, 2014, vol. 62, pp. 388–396.
  • Reinfurt D.W., Stewart J.R., Weaver N.L. The economy as a factor in motor vehicle fatalities, suicides and homicides. Accident Analysis and Prevention, 1991, vol. 23, pp. 453–462.
  • Wagenaar A. C. Effects of macroeconomic conditions on the incidence of motor vehicle accidents. Accident Analysis and Prevention, 1984, vol. 16, pp. 191–205.
  • Shashua A., Levin A. Ranking with large margin principle: Two approaches. In: Proceedings of Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, 2003, no. 6, pp. 961–968.
  • Hettmansperger T. Statisticheskie vyvody, osnovannye na rangakh [Statistical Inference Based on Ranks]. Moscow: Finansy i statistika, 1987. 332 p.
  • Kuz’minov A.N. Conceptual model of cenological management in socio-economic systems. Terra Economicus, 2009, vol. 7, no. 2, part 2, pp. 28–32 (in Russian).
  • Beshelev S.D., Gurvich F.G. Matematiko-statisticheskie metody ekspertnykh otsenok [Mathematics-Statistical Methods of Expert Estimates]. Moscow: Statistika, 1974. 264 p.
  • Yurevich A.V. The quantitative estimation methodology of modern Russian society’s psychological state. Metodologiya i istoriya psikhologii=Methodology and History of Psychology, 2018, no. 1, pp. 155–173 (in Russian).
  • Haitun S.D. Problemy kolichestvennogo analiza nauki [Problems of Quantitative Analysis of Scientific Activities]. Moscow: Nauka, 1989. 280 p.
  • Kolesov V.I., Danilov O.F. Rank analytics in technological problems. In: Sostoyanie, tendentsii i problemy razvitiya neftegazovogo potentsiala Zapadnoi Sibiri: mat-ly mezhdunar. konf. [State, trends and problems of development of oil and gas potential of Western Siberia: Materials of the international conference]. Tyumen: TIU, 2018. Pp. 274–279 (in Russian).
  • Kolesov V.I. Identification of rank distribution models in the analysis of road accidents in the country. In: Energosberezhenie i innovatsionnye tekhnologii v toplivno-energeticheskom komplekse: mat-ly mezhdunar. nauch.- praktich. Konferentsii [Energy saving and innovative technologies in the fuel and energy complex: Materials of the international research-to-practice conference]. Tyumen: TIU, 2016. Pp. 275–280 (in Russian).
  • Petrov A.I. Tekhnotsenozy, sotsiotsenozy, rangovye i Pareto-raspredeleniya v otsenke regional’nykh osobennostei bezopasnosti dorozhnogo dvizheniya [Technocenoses, Sociocenoses, Rank and Pareto Distributions in the Assessment of Regional Features of Road Safety]. Tyumen: TIU, 2019. 179 p.
  • Christie N., Ward H., Kimberlee R., Lyons R., Towner E., Hayes M., Robertson S., Rana S., Brussoni M. Road
  • Traffic Injury Risk in Disadvantaged Communities: Evaluation of the Neighbourhood Road Safety Initiative. Department for Transport: London, 2010.
  • Lyons R., Jones S., Deacon T., Heaven M. Socioeconomic variation in injury in children and older people: a population based study. Injury Prevention, 2003, no. 9, pp. 33–37.
  • Gordon W.J.J. Sinectics: The Development of Creative Capacity. New York. 1961. 180 p.
  • Uemov A.I. Analogiya v praktike nauchnogo issledovaniya [Analogy in the Practice of Scientific Research].Moscow: Nauka, 1970. 264 p.
  • Petrov A.I. Osobennosti formirovaniya avtotransportnoi avariinosti v prostranstve i vremeni [Specifics of Formation of Road Traffic Accident Rate in Space and Time]. Tyumen: Izd. TyumGNGU, 2015. 254 p.
  • Kolesov V.I., Petrov A.I. Analysis of the transport culture of the population. Transport. Nauka, tekhnika, upravlenie=Transport: Science, Equipment, Management. Scientific Information Collection, 2015, no. 6, pp. 20–22 (in Russian).
  • Fisher R., Boer D. Values: the dynamic nexus between biology, ecology and culture. Current Opinion in Psychology, 2016, no. 8, pp. 155–160. DOI: 10.1016/j.copsyc.2015.12.009
Еще
Статья научная