The safety of navigation in difficult climatic conditions: forecasting of risks

The development of the Arctic region is now especially relevant. The Arctic shelf is attractive due to hydrocarbon fields, and the Northern Sea Route remains the most important transport route linking Asia and Europe. However, the severe arctic climate does not contribute to the intensive development of the territory, and even carries a certain danger. This problem is especially acute in the eastern sector of the Arctic and even in the Far East as regions with underdeveloped infrastructure. Accidents associated with ice conditions are typical for the northern latitudes, the most dangerous ones are icing of ships. Owing to the strong remoteness of the ports from each other, the response time in an emergency situation is difficult to bring to the normative index. Creating a dense network of rescue teams will require unjustifiably large financial investments. Therefore, a risk assessment is proposed as a basic measure to improve the existing emergency response system. The necessity of improving methods for risk assessment taking into account spatial and temporal changes has been substantiated...