Russian population in Estonia: main geodemographic trends (2000-2021)

The article analyzes the quantitative, spatial, and settlement dynamics of the Russian population of Estonia in the period 2000-2021, examines the shifts in its age structure and gender ratio. The study confirmed preservation in 2000-2010 of two epicenters of the Russian settlement system, including the North-East of Estonia (Ida-Virumaa County) and the metropolitan subregion (Tallinn and Harjumaa County). Russian population’s compact settlement, limited level of natural population decline and near-zero migration balance contributed to a significant reduction in its demographic losses, the rate of which was minimal within all of Russia’s new abroad (10.3% in 2000-2021). The degree of deformation of the age and sex structure of Russians in Estonia was insignificant in comparison with other post-Soviet countries. The combination of these favorable factors works to preserve the scenario of a slow decrease of the Russian community in the country in the coming decades. But the overall demographic stability did not exclude serious problems associated with the active outflow of some Russians (primarily young people and people of working age) to the metropolitan subregion. The consequence of this process was the accelerated decline and rapid aging of the majority of regional groups of Russian population. Currently, in 10 of the 15 counties of Estonia, the average age of Russians exceeds 50 years, which makes a noticeable increase in their natural losses inevitable in the future 10-20 years. Two smallest and oldest regional groups of Russians (Saaremaa and Hiiumaa counties) may almost completely cease to exist by the middle of the century; Russian population of another 6-7 counties of country may decrease by 1.8-2.5 times. Russians in Estonia will be significantly reduced under this geodemographic scenario, and they will be overconcentrated in the metropolitan subregion, which in 2045-2050 may account for about 65-70% of the Russian population of the country.