Balance of the economy as a condition for promoting innovative activity: system analysis and the experience of the Republic of Belarus

The article discusses the problems of forecasting balanced growth and ways to increase innovative activity in the economy. It describes external and internal risks that influence the choice of strategy of development of Belarus. The paper presents an analysis of the existing control system, estimates the branch-wise structure of the economy of Belarus as the main issue that requires urgent solving. The authors present the principles and results of the scientific forecast of socio-economic development of the Republic of Belarus until 2030, developed by the Center for System Analysis and Strategic Research of NAS of Belarus jointly with the Institute of Economics of NAS of Belarus. The purpose of the article is to describe the results of the study, theoretical and methodological foundations of the risks of innovation activity, the causes of imbalances in the economy, as well as the results of the model that help develop scientifically based forecasts of economic balance in the medium term. The objectives of the article include the synthesis of theoretical approaches to the interrelation of categories “innovative activity” and “economic risk”; assessment of balanced development of economy of the Republic of Belarus from the point of view of system analysis; presentation of the results of optimization of the forecast of development of the Belarusian economy by the criterion of elimination of existing imbalances. It is shown that when choosing the optimal technology options to achieve the planned objectives it is necessary to use mathematical methods for solving extremal problems. Evaluation of possible practical applications: methodological provisions and tools will help significantly improve the process of forecasting of development of multi-industry complex and economy of the Republic as a whole. The developed model has a system of mathematical tools and software that helps automate the process of calculations and makes forecasting and analytical system into an effective tool that can be used by public administration bodies to assess the prospects for the development of multi-industry complex of the Republic of Belarus taking into account its internal and external relations. The model helps early and accurately forecast the effects of policy and management decisions, to identify the hidden dependencies in the economy. The model has a large number of equations and parameters with a fairly simple structure that with the help of high-performance computing makes it useful for practical applications.