Scenarios of demographic development of rural territories of the Central Black Earth regions under the conditions of a special military operation

Based on the application of extrapolation methods and the method of expert assessments, the article substantiates forecast scenarios for the demographic development of rural areas in the regions of the Central Black Earth economic region. The optimistic scenario considers a moderately neutral depopulation with a gradual restoration of migration inflow and minimization of interregional differentiation. The baseline scenario includes moderate depopulation with focal risks and increased uncertainty. According to the pessimistic scenario, depopulation is expected to increase with the growth of inter-regional differentiation and migration outflow from rural areas. The main factor influencing the standard background of the demographic development of the studied areas is a special military operation in Ukraine, which is characterized by high associated risks and serious socio-economic consequences.