Scenario modeling of regional development based on the social time budget

One of the most effective tools for strategic analysis is the scenario modeling method, which systematizes alternative options for the development of the region. This method is relevant in the tasks of regional sustainable development. The paper presents general logic and examples of scenario modeling of regional development based on the budget of social time and objective indicators within the framework of the system-energy concept. A brief overview is presented on the problem of measuring regional development using the example of a comprehensive indicator of changes in the region - the quality of life of the population. Scenario modeling is based on the use of the budget of social time and system-energy (also found in the literature: natural science or physical-economic) meters and criteria for assessing the dynamics of the region's development. The use of the social time budget is characterized by the efficiency of the use of the social time budget. The synthesis of key system-energy indicators and the coefficient of use of the social time budget is presented in the comprehensive indicator "quality of life development," which is based on the total quality of life of the population, taking into account the social time budget. The cumulative quality of life of the population is illustrated by the results of calculations using the example of federal districts of the Russian Federation with the interpretation of the results using examples. In addition, in the interests of scenario modeling, a system of restrictions is introduced based on the requirements of sustainable development, which gives reason to formalize possible scenarios of regional development in the form of a tree of inference logic. These are development, decline, stagnation and other scenarios. Some scenarios are described by a system of equations. The results of the study are implemented in the database and in the form of a map of the quality of life development, which presents numerical values of 27 indicators with the possibility of their mapping. The conclusion presents some opportunities and advantages of the methodology and methods of scenario modeling of regional development, taking into account the highlighted system of measures.