Scenario forecast of export potential development: the regions of the North-West of Russia

This article presents a forecast of the development of key regions in Northwest Russia by 2030, based on an assessment of their export potential. The study aims to formulate a development forecast for the regions of the Northwestern Federal District of the Russian Federation by 2030. This forecast is based on a thorough evaluation of the regions' export potential. The research hypothesis posits that an integrated assessment of these regions' export potential – combining an analysis of their current state, identification of strategic positions, and development of scenario-based forecasts – can identify export growth trajectories and determine strategic priorities for diversifying and enhancing the macro-region's competitiveness amid global challenges. The research methodology is based on a comprehensive approach that integrates qualitative and quantitative analytical methods: SWOT analysis, benchmarking, and scenario forecasting. The informational foundation of the study comprises data from Rosstat and TradeMap (up to 2021), acknowledging the limitations regarding the availability of recent region-specific data. The study’s key original contributions include a thorough analysis of the export potential of the Northwestern Federal District, highlighting its strengths and critical challenges. Three export development scenarios in key regions of the district have been developed and quantitatively substantiated. The study identifies sectoral and regional priorities for transitioning from a commodity-based economic model to non-commodity and “green” exports. The study provides specific recommendations for government authorities, including increasing investment in infrastructure and innovation, diversifying sales markets, and developing international partnerships. In summary, the study confirms the pivotal role of export potential in driving economic growth in the Northwestern Federal District. It shows that diversification towards high-tech and environmentally sustainable sectors can facilitate significant growth, whereas the persistence of a commodity-based model renders the region vulnerable to external shocks. The research is of practical significance to government bodies, businesses, and the scientific community. Beyond providing scenario forecasts and recommendations as a tool for strategic planning, the results highlight promising industries and investment opportunities while identifying key risks. The study proposes an integrated methodology for assessing and forecasting export potential that combines qualitative and quantitative methods and can be adapted for other macro-regions.