Family patterns in achieving performance indicators for the heads of constituent entities of the Russian Federation

The aim of the study was to identify the influence of family patterns on the planned number of children in a family and on building marriage and family relations among young people in order to assess the effectiveness of the activities of senior officials of the Russian Federation. Dominant variables are also fundamental in other development strategies for regions of the Russian Federation. The authors’ approach (methodology) is based on the analysis of secondary data sources (statistical socio-economic indicators of the regions of Russia) and primary ones — the authors’ survey conducted in 2024 and 2017 based on comparable tools and a quota sample (the first cut in 2017(N = 1400), the second (pilot) in 2024 (N = 450)). For the possibility of econometric analysis and metric estimation of proxy indicators from the EDDF, they were correlated with statistical markers from ROSSTAT to build a correlation matrix (based on the use of multiple linear regression). This made it possible to identify and determine the level of dependencies that turned out to be «high» and «very high» (the correlation coefficient r is from 0.72 to 0.96) between the selected variables. Analysis of the primary data showed that today it is important for people to preserve the institution of family: more than half of the respondents (58.1%) consider it «extremely important», and a third (35%) — «important». It was found that the «orientation» towards having many children has a positive trend — almost a quarter (24.7%) of respondents want their families to have more than 2 children. This trend was analyzed based on a query system and identification of a correlation between the answers to the questions «about the desired number of children» and «how many children were in your parents’ family» (based on the calculated data from two cross-sections). The constructed trend lines using the «Least squares method» and «Third degree Polynomial approximation» proved the closeness of the relationship. Thus, the relationship between family patterns and the «desired» number of children was confirmed. The developed approach can be used not only in the EDDF, but also in monitoring other National Development Projects, and can also be useful to researchers and managers who deal with demographic problems and assess socio-economic indicators of the development of the regions of the Russian Federation.