Simulation of structural changes in the region's economy based on the matrix of financial flows
Автор: Tatarkin Denis Aleksandrovich, Sidorova Elena Nikolaevna, Trynov Aleksandr Valerevich
Журнал: Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast @volnc-esc-en
Рубрика: Modeling and forecast of socio-economic processes
Статья в выпуске: 1 (49) т.10, 2017 года.
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The article is devoted to the improvement of instruments assessing the impact of exogenous factors on the structure of the regional economy. In distinction from previous studies, the analysis is carried out not only on the basis of short-term multiplier effect, but also changes the values of multipliers, demonstrating the sensitivity / elasticity of the economic system in the region to exogenous influences in the long term. Structural changes are analyzed by the example of assessing the impact of the financial measures of the state policy of import substitution. The article presents a method of estimating the multiplicative effects, based on the balance sheet approach and the methodology of the system of national accounts. A distinctive feature of the methodology is to reflect the reproductive structures of institutional sectors in the region in relation to the import and export flows. On an example of the Sverdlovsk Oblast the authors demonstrate the possibility of using methods in predicting changes in key economic indicators in the region (wages, gross profit, tax revenues of the consolidated regional budget, final consumption expenditure, etc.)...
Regional development, modernization, import substitution, multiplicative effects, matrix of financial flows, scenario modelling
Короткий адрес: https://sciup.org/147223907
IDR: 147223907 | DOI: 10.15838/esc.2017.1.49.12
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