Situational modeling of regional development trajectories based on the concept of economic complexity

The article highlights a comparative analysis of the trajectories of economic complexity assessments (ECA) of regions, based on two approaches to situational modeling. The first approach is to select a sector of the region's gross domestic product (GDP) to develop to a strong level that ensures maximum growth in the region's economic complexity. The second approach involves choosing a sector of GDP in the region for development to a strong level, which has a maximum assessment of economic complexity. Analysis of ECO trajectories built on the basis of situational modeling can be important for solving management problems aimed at increasing the economic complexity of the region, as it allows us to assess the mutual impact of changes in the structures of strong sectors of regional economies. The article also considers the trajectories of the regional ECO, constructed in two different ways, as an alternative for comparison with trajectories obtained on the basis of an expert choice of the direction of diversification. The article also presents the results of regression analysis demonstrating the possibility of predicting estimates of the economic complexity of regions by sector using estimates of the economic complexity of regions by GDP, as well as the first and second main components of the economic structure by GDP.