Reduction of the risk of bankruptcy based on the use of models of evaluating the probability of bankruptcy of enterprises in the Russian economy

This article discusses the features of assessing the probability of bankruptcy of Russian companies in order to optimize their operation and reduce the risk of bankruptcy. For this purpose, models based on multiplicative discriminant analysis and models based on regression logistic analysis (logit models) are used. The alternative results of calculations of the bankruptcy probability using the five-factor model of E. Altman, the models of R. Taffler, D. Fulmer, Zaitseva O.P., Savitskaya G.V., J. Olson, Khaidarshina G.A. are given. It is shown that the models used give an ambiguous result. In this regard, it was concluded that it is necessary to take measures to improve the efficiency of the enterprise. Repeated calculation of the probability of bankruptcy in view of the implementation of the proposed measures showed a positive result (low probability of bankruptcy) for all the applied models. Based on the study, an algorithm of actions was proposed to prevent a company from bankruptcy, including monitoring the operation of an enterprise for possible bankruptcy risks using models for assessing the probability of bankruptcy based on both multiplicative discriminant analysis and regression logistic analysis, identifying problem areas, developing and the implementation of necessary activities.