Social ecology and futurology

«…There are many cultures and the civilization –is one ».

Merab Mamardashvili, 1989 г.

We undoubtedly share the view of D. N. Kavtaradze that without the image of the desired future task is to ensure future generations a chance to exist, it is hardly feasible [1, p. 28--‐42]. There is, however, the question of what science is able to solve the problem? Does it exist already or is it the case the long term? We think that the list of university science it yet, although it was justified by the need for more Academician N. N. Moiseev [2].

M. V. Velichko and others., believe that Futurological development of V. I. Vernadsky on planetary problems of the civilization "underestimated by the political scientists, demographers generally globalists Russia, which focus on the Western theories and concepts of the moderniza--‐ tion, ignoring the experience even neighbors" [3].

Value concepts of quality of life (QOL), social security (Security Council) and public health (PH), social ecology (SE), sustainable development (SD) can not be objectively realized from the standpoint of traditional linear thinking. In all cases, semantic analysis puts the "public health" in the center of the concept of "social security", representing the basic and essential core of it, and the other being compared with OZ concepts. It is impossible in this context does not recall the ex--‐ perience of a small ancient Sparta or the canons of the Old Testament Jews and admit that those and other health was the essence of religion and government.

• E.    A. Kvasha asks the question, why in Russia, where the infant mortality rate has decreased over the twentieth century is almost 20 times, it still remains a public health problem [4, p. 47--‐55]. She "has not decreased, but increased the gap with developed countries in the world in this socially and economically important indicator." Paradoxically, as in the beginning of the XX century, the point is the differing levels of development in the countries of the West and Russia. The scientist said that with the modern health care system is not Russia we're gone In 2010, Russia has a mor--‐ tality rate 1.3 times higher than the average of the RSFSR in 1980--‐1990. The number of children born sick or ill in the neonatal period has increased by 2.2 times (from 17 to 37% of all births). Cri--‐ terion value of life expectancy (LE) in the "new" EU countries v1980--‐1990 years. equal to the value of life expectancy in Russia, Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan. In the period 1991--‐2010. They grew steadily, reached 75 years and became 4.5 years longer than in Belarus, and for 6 years more than in Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan.

The beginning of the new century marks the absolute reduction of the human security, people, nations and the world at large. The world really has become multipolar, and this is really a new world. But paradoxically, that it is much more dangerous than the previous bipolar world the second half of the twentieth century, with its global nuclear threat. Gone are training students and the general public of the program of nuclear danger in the framework of the civil defense in al countries of the world. And today is no longer the USSR, which was represented nations the US and the Western Europe as an "evil empire." As a result, the Soviet Union lost the Cold War, became the victim of domestic "knights" of market capitalism, the temptation in the 90s illusory wealth multi--‐million dollar, multi--‐national, universal literacy, but trusting the Soviet people, and tired of senility senile leaders.

Nationalism and thr ethnic atrocities to destroy Yugoslavia, which also no longer on the world map. Fascism took revenge in the Baltic States and Ukraine. Clericalism, Orthodox and Islam--‐ ic fundamentalism, tolerance occur at a Western--‐style constitutional foundations of the Russian state. And they have become a real threat to global security, not only in the minds of potentia danger of rare Russian intellectuals. Social ecology and futurology can and should be combined content of the first stage of today's global environmental crisis. In fact, futurology is considered a part of social ecology, which determines the prospects for the development of the "society--‐ nature". Social ecology in the 30--‐ies of XX century (Vernadsky, P. Teilhard de Chardin) marked the development of the alternatives: the transition of the biosphere into the noosphere or the techno--‐ sphere. The whole range of the futuristic concepts of the environmental trends can be divided into two streams: eko pessimistic (ekoalarmizm) and tehno--‐optimistic (tehnoapologizm) concept.

• V.    I. Dobrynin and the secod author consider the social ecology "as a kind of the synthesis of the ecology and sociology". On the basis of this synthesis, a new "social reality associated with find--‐ ing solutions to the environmental crisis". Social Ecology, starting with Aurelio Peccei, believe that "the basis of a new social reality must be transfigured system of value orientations and human needs, which in turn will create new patterns of behavior of people and providing environmentally sound solutions to global problems".

But only in the 70s of the last century were created computer models to estimate the growth of five limiting the development of the civilization of the growth factors: population, food, and of industrial production, consumption of natural resources and pollution and poisoning the environment of technological waste. On the initiative of Peccei and Forrester spouses Meadows for the Club of Rome models were developed (ekoalarmistichesky forecasts), concluded that if the quantitative growth of these five factors will not cease by the end of the XXI century civilization suffer collapse. Tehnooptimisticheskaya concept formed the basis of model forecasts R. Boyd, M. Mesarovic, E. Pestel --‐ zero growth.

In 1988, Y. S. Strelez in his scientific work outlined a number of the structural problems that must be addressed ecological forecasting, including --‐ "Identify priority areas in the study of thre current and future states of the biosphere and its components" [5].

Optimists do not cease to rely on the hope of a more secure way of life and, accordingly, the possibility of achieving the highest level of health, ie, on the prudent development of our civili--‐ zation in the future. And there is no shortage of the recipes that are imposed on us by Western--‐ style democracy --‐ here and happy way to market, and the Bologna Process, and homosexual love as the norm, surrogacy, juvenile justice and so forth. But we are more willing to accept with the sociologist A. D. Ivanov, who is skeptical about the effectiveness of futurology and referring to

Winston Churchill, said: "The new bright phenomenon, barely opened before us some prospects for the future, at the same time replaced by another phenomenon with other perspectives, and the future is in the past, and we always we remain in this vibrating. Thus, post--‐industrial society and postmodern culture is no longer relevant. The phenomenon, defining moment, became not claiming to be an epoch--‐making and life--‐changing glamor "[6].

The answer to the question must be sought not in the emotions about the current state of Russian society, and refer to the periodization of the history of mankind as a material process, which identifies three main major phases: "The kingdom of natural necessity" = "Background", "The kingdom of perceived need" = "The era of communism" = "kingdom of freedom" = "The era of humanism" [7]. Paradoxically, in accordance with this periodization, and despite the considerable achievements of the last hundred years, humanity has still not come out of "history"

Indeed, capitalism – is the only social system that can co--‐exist with a "plus" ("positive capi--‐ talism") and with the sign "minus" (systemic anti--‐capitalism, "the negative of capitalism"). Capital--‐ ism develops not only on their own, but also anti--‐capitalist logic, and some historically short time can solve the problems of capitalism, smoothes its contradictions. On the other hand, we share the view that even today it is possible to observe the elimination of strange generation of XX century --‐ the middle class and intensive proletarianization major segments of the population.

During the period of the progressive capitalism among the middle class (traditional) the idea of the "state medical", which is then due to the moral activities of European doctors and sci--‐ entists developed the social hygiene (medicine). The idea of social medicine German hygienists of the XIX century was not so far from the ideals and the Russian democratic public. The same idea at the beginning of XX--‐th century tried on class basis to realize the Russian Bolshevik Communists de--‐ clared by the Soviet government responsible for the health of workers. And it must be admitted that before the change of ideological paradigm of Soviet public health and even the actual rejec--‐ tion of this setting, the Soviet health care remains a model of social security health care system. In this regard, the triumph of the scientific concept of social medicine (health care) should be consid--‐ ered as the Alma--‐Ata Declaration of 1978, which took place on the system design methodology of modern health care.

However, the market economy thanks to strong consumer outlook spread of many of the world population continues to grow (albeit with crises), possessing a result almost the entire plan--‐ et. It remains as the main form of management, and a predominant form of social consciousness and social protipolozhnost approach to human health has spawned various individualistic ideas, including the concept of "personal responsibility for their health" and a system of high--‐tech medi--‐ cal care.

For example, the United States ranks first in the world in terms of the medical expenses --‐ 7439 dollars per person, and by 2015, 12 000 dollars. Or 16% of GDP United States ranked only 37th in terms of health care (Cuba --‐ 35 th) and 72 th in the general level of health. Infant mortality in the United States is the worst rate among developed countries --‐ 41 th place. And on the 45th place in life expectancy (LE). This is the only industrialized nation that does not guarantee its citi--‐ zens universal and inclusive health insurance system. For example, the United States ranks first in the world in terms of medical expenses --‐ 7439 dollars per person, and by 2015, 12 000 dollars. Or 16% of GDP United States ranked only 37th in terms of health care (Cuba --‐ 35 th) and 72 th in the general level of health. Infant mortality in the United States is the worst rate among developed countries --‐ 41 th place. And on the 45th place in life expectancy (LE). This is the only industrialized nation that does not guarantee its citizens universal and inclusive health insurance system.

B. N. Kuzyk, Y. V. Yakovets consider "civilization" fifth highest element in the structure of society--‐round. [8] Civilization unites all mankind, located at a certain stage of development--‐term, or its major constituent part. In this world civilizations --‐ large stages in the development of globa civilization and cycles of generations of the local civilizations, the era in the development of hu--‐ manity as a single mega--‐system. Scientists postulate a priori: "At the turn of the XXI century begins the seventh round of the civilizational spiral, which is likely to cover the space of two centuries and will lead to a radical transformation of the global civilization in the beginning of the third historica super cycle." According to them, which seems to us very optimistic now formed "humanistic--‐Noo--‐ Sphere post--‐industrial civilization and the 5th generation of local civilizations." But scientists are still unsolved question of the forecast --‐ "enter whether the global civilization in the XXIII century in the next, eighth round of the civilizational spiral or humanity will end".

In the XIX century. A. de Saint--‐Simon (1760--‐1825) introduced the concept of human ascent from barbarism to civilization. The best minds of the past and present thought of forecast future development of mankind. This is Marx, N. D. Kondratyev, P. A. Sorokin, Fernand Braudel, Schum--‐ peter, Oswald Spengler. Arnold Toynbee, V. I, Vernadsky, N. Moses and many others. In this regard, the forecast of the future development of Russia remains an important scientific problem of the sociology and economics. "Eurasianism," which among the Russian emigration beginning of XX cen--‐ tury dubbed Slavophil futurism, has not lost its adherents.

At the same time, the world civilization – are the major stages of the development of the global civilization and cycles of generations of the local civilizations era in the development of hu--‐ manity as a single mega--‐system. Such treatment of the subject is very important and especially to discuss the future of Russia, because traditionally many Russian scientists with different philosoph--‐ ical views and political views and not those were and are uniquely their own, original, not oriented to the West of Russia's development path. However, S. G. Kara--‐Murza, scientists who positively can not be attributed to the "Westerners", confirms that "the world was involved in the crisis of the industrial civilization" [9]. He once again strongly criticizes neoliberalism, seeing in this economic paradigm root of many of the ills of modern Russia. In another study, again in a manner character--‐ istic of the author publicist Kara--‐Murza clarifies the diagnosis: "Today's Russia (Russian Federation) --‐ a system of transition, which is in unstable equilibrium. Today in it at the same time there are processes of decay and strengthen. Where will swing the balance --‐ depends on the government, and from all of us "[10]. Generally journalistic genre, judging Throwing E Limonov, remains a favor--‐ ite genre of neo--‐Eurasianism.

Known "neoevraziets" S. N. Baburin --‐ marks the characteristics of "Russian civilization", which form the basis of the unifying factor of Orthodoxy, he affirms, "... only Russian Orthodox Empire" [11]. Moreover, he believes that the age--‐old debate in Russia won not Marxists and popu--‐ lists: "How much is our homeland could have been avoided if a hundred years earlier listened to the advice of the wise Marx does not try to live by the" capital", imitating the West and rely on their communal tradition".

A.N. Saveliev at the beginning of the 2000s, gave a very caustic and apt characterization of Russian Eurasianism: "In the patriotic movement Eurasian --‐ is a Russian, who always want to be rewritten in the Tartars. And at the same time to speak European languages and refer to Russian philosophers. It turns out it was "neither the one nor the other" --‐ "rossiyantsy" --‐ intelligent waste dump. They are happy to invite you to the Sorbonne --‐ listen to "Russian nonsense", which in Rus--‐ sian history and Russian thought has the smallest ratio of "[12]

It is well known that Eurasianism as an intellectual phenomenon has arisen among the Rus--‐ sian emigration of the first wave. A number of researchers conducts accurate count activity en ti--‐ sovetskogo Eurasian Movement since 1921, since the publication of the first collective work "Exo--‐ dus to the East. Premonitions and achievements. Adoption Eurasians "(Sofia, 1921). Eurasianism was extremely popular in the 80--‐90s of last century in the sunset of the Soviet Union, when the scientist--‐scholar and environmentalist L. N. Gumilev was a talented popularizer very controversia hypothesis of drive theory of ethnogenesis. You can give different assessment forms in which man--‐ ifest social activity Eurasians. But is it a kind of self--‐consciousness of the Russian Eurasian civiliza--‐ tion? This question we leave unanswered, sending his philosophy. We tend to think of the main feature of Eurasianism ideological myth--‐making, when, as they say, there is a need to wishful think--‐ ing.

Today there are a lot of Russian scientists, clearly unsatisfied peripheral location of the "new Russia" in the market, glamor civilized world in the first stage the era of global ecological cri--‐ sis. And they think about her future civilization development, considering the current state of Rus--‐ sian unfair and the result of the activities of external forces. However, some of them clearly show a linear perception of reality (ideology). Scientific system (social and environmental) approach is ob--‐ jective and subjective reasons beyond their reach. And in the end, emotional and jingoistic attitude to the realities of the world civilization and the rejection of the internal forces of development sys--‐ tems. No wonder and natural that scientific prediction replaced their subjective wishes (dreams) and myths. E. Batalov, considering the philosophy of the radical left movements of the last century, notes chtootkaz from a systemic approach inevitably leads to an approach "factorial", from which the direct route to the construction of utopias as arbitrary, illusory systems.

In this regard to the opinion of a member of the Expert Council of the State Duma Commit--‐ tee on Security TY Bulakh that, presenting the book S. G. Kara--‐Murza and V. V. Patokova, wrote: "Russia faces a choice --‐ either to abandon the status of civilization and built into the periphery of the new world order, or rise to the level of one of the world's centers of civilization" [13].

S. I. Sukhonos, like many other sociologists and economists, stands in the position of the uneven development of mankind. His development as leaders appear not individual countries, and "civilization leaders." Objectively can not objectionable his assumption that "today is the world--‐ wide leader of the Western civilization, represented by the EU and the US" [14]. And it is a reality of the modern capitalist civilization

There is another point of view of Professor N. P. Zalyvskiy"world civilization form the state". His prediction is focused on geopolitical and socio--‐cultural opportunity Russia: "What is the es--‐ sence of this chance? In the opportunities available and the balance of time, not only for the rea--‐ sons of the critical reassessment of the social ills socio--‐economic development of the country, in the XX century and the beginning of the XXI century, but also to simulate the ideological basis for social revenge, raising the entire population of Russia to the structural modernization of the wel--‐ fare state model "[15]. The basis of his prophecy he takes the specifics of probability "cyclical eco--‐ nomic achievements of the world". In his view "for a brief historical material phase saturation is inevitable revolutionary replacement of the objectives of the economic development of the coun--‐ try (the company) on the development of man's inner world." The author is in no way supports his assertion, and it sounds like he is axiomatic.

But even more alarming we proclaimed it "the formation of the ideology of social revenge."

Ideology, which is represented as "... an objective historical need to strengthen geopolitical, geo--‐ cultural Russia's role in the XXII--‐XXIII centuries." The author states categorically that otherwise, if it does not happen, then in the next century ( ?) "Russian world and Russian spirit fall into the histor--‐ ical degeneration". And then the author of "A priori sure: Russia may take in the future history of mankind rightful place only when the steady advance towards the improvement of spiritually– cul--‐ tural resource (discharge – M. H. Shraga) social--‐economic development. "In this connection I should like, firstly, that the author used a more unambiguous and definite science terms, for indi--‐ vidual paragraphs of text difficult to understand the meaning. Second, the time period indicated their predictions about the "historical degeneration" of the world and the spirit. Third, what are his reasons for his judgment so clearly that is not the case, and irrevocable.

Next scientist widely said "the historic defeat of the USSR in 1991 in the creation of a new social order". And here, even though he cites V.I. Lenin's part of the "most important conditions for the victory of communism", admits official data "on the level of productivity", which is 2--‐2.5 times behind "from the industrialized countries". But whether this technical criterion should make socia health and a "new model of using human factor"?

His "prediction" by and large within the meaning is very similar to the official voiced direc--‐ tions of development of the Russian Federation for the next term. Because it is more important, "Derivation of Russia in five countries leading the global competition (and then saving it in the top ten of the world's economic leaders) implies not only effective and innovative continuous modern--‐ ization of the national economy. This requires anticipatory regarding the transition to a new tech--‐ nological complexes training and liberation from vices respect to the support of knowledge specific to the current phase of the history of Russia "[15].

N. P. Zalyvsky specifically addresses the problem of the symbiosis "cultural and ethnograph--‐ ic identity of the people". When this relationship is not clear outer window with visa--‐free commu--‐ nications of citizens of Russia: "Europe has no future without Russia ...". And Russia? He decided on a very long--‐term prognosis, when he asserts that "the associated people --‐ an inevitable concomi--‐ tant of the coming millennium Russia. And the recognition of the possibility of dissolution of one ethnic group to another people is a prerequisite for optimal transformation of the national con--‐ sciousness (feelings, culture) many ethnic groups in the country nationwide Unitarianism. "Even more fantastic sounds his next axiom: "The policy should help to promote in the global world au--‐ thority social practices of Russia" [15]. At the end of his article, Professor nice self--‐critical and can be forced to admit their arguments ready "speculative or fantastic". But that does not stop us to ask more questions to the author. What is the same advanced social role of Russia in the world and for the world? And whether you need for the Russian people to invent "a methodology for great--‐ win"? Who needs the social revenge, the forerunner of which he is positioning itself? However, al this fits well with the methodological style neoevroaziatstva.

Even today, there are some difficulties with the content of the term "civilization" that A. Ferguson introduced into the science in the middle of the XVIII century. In European science XIX--‐XX centuries, the concept of "civilization" was used in different ways, usually through--‐compared it with the notion of "culture". In science, a broad range of the opinions on the identification of these concepts to their opposition.

• V.    F. Shelike at the XVII World Congress of Philosophy in 1983, noted the importance of the position that some sociologists and economists prefer to forget today. The classics of Marxism "along with segmentation of the historical process and the development of the relevant number of changing socio--‐economic formations ... shared history brow--‐Humanity into three" stages of the so--‐ cial development, "among which civilization occupies a middle position between barbarity and communism" [16, p.21 --‐26]. These ideas, as they note, have been fully justified by Engels in his work "The Origin of the Family, Private Property and the State." Engels described the "civilization" as a stage of the social development, which gradually "commodity production becomes the domi--‐ nant form of" [17 p.175--‐177].

The Marxist approach is very simple and logical, and allows researchers to get out of the terminological juggling Eurasianism, --‐ a form (method) of the production determines the essence of the civilization. Justifying position on the relationship of individual freedom with the objective conditions of life in society, Marxism believes that the true basis of all the freedoms is the "free--‐ dom to live," freedom from want, freedom from exploitation and insecurity. Marxism describes history as the implementation of freedom, humanity is becoming more liberal with respect to the natural and social laws. Humanity knows them, using this knowledge to achieve their goals, but under the rule of private property and the exploitation of man by man --‐ the growth of freedom for society turns its loss of the most people. Marxism sees the reason for this alienation of people.

And in this case, you have to admit that at the end of XX century found more hard than the "spiritual and cultural" imperative --‐ "ecological imperative" N. N. Moiseev, who according to A. I. Subetto is the part of the "imperative of survival" [18].

Professor A. I. Subetto by introducing in 1991 the concept of "imperative of survival brow--‐ Humanity in the XXI century", given the content of the concept. This is "the only exit strategy of mankind" pit "of the first phase of the global ecological catastrophe --‐ is controlled on the basis of socio--‐natural evolution of social intelligence and the educational community, or other formulation

--‐ controls the dynamic socio--‐natural (socio--‐biosphere, anthropo--‐biosphere, noosphere) harmony". And our Rethink receives recharge from Immanuel Wallerstein, who proposed the theory, accord--‐ ing to which all the countries of the capitalist world economy (LME) live in the same rhythm dictat--‐ ed by "long waves" Kondratiev (op. On Zavalko G.) [19].

So, first, that Russia has been integrated into the LME in the XVIII century in the period be--‐ tween the reign of Peter I and Catherine II. Second, Marx was right in saying that capitalism leads not only to a relative, but absolute impoverishment of the majority. Third, the "nation state" should be regarded as derived from the existence of the social systems. Fourth, focus on the leve of the individual states and the inevitable anti--‐systemic fatal mistake. Fifth, the development as a "national development" rightly considered an illusion. Sixth, ended in a peaceful rule of capitalism and liberalism exhausted itself as the dominant ideology. And finally, the division of the world--‐ economy in the core and the periphery does not disappear as a result of inclusion in the core of the new countries, and due to the gradual eradication of capitalism. Wallerstein does not approve of Marxism, but proves the correctness of his many positions.

Another important paradigm of today, which is worth paying attention to. In view of global--‐ ization, there is a partial weakening of national territorial units, and there are conditions for the growth of the value of spatial units other scales [20, p. 13--‐28]. Among them – are the subnationa units (mainly cities and regions), border areas, which include two or more sub--‐units and suprana--‐ tional units (global markets and free trade zones) [21, p. 15--‐31].

In this regard, it is important fate of the Arctic region and in particular the Arkhangelsk re--‐ gion. Indeed, the inhabitants of the region is less likely to be attracted to the mission of the suppli--‐ er of hydrocarbons on the background of pristine Arctic environment. But the new governor of the Arkhangelsk region Igor Orlov, voicing at the session of the Arkhangelsk Oblast Council of Deputies large--‐scale, complex priorities that will further define the socio--‐economic development of the re--‐ gion, first, called the development of the Arctic.

It is possible that Professor R. F. Turov was not totally impartial in the docking Lada "Ar--‐ khangelsk region: efficiency and consolidation of power." However, it is argued context outskirts of the area as the "periphery of modern Western civilization." Among the subjects of the Northwest--‐ ern Federal District on the "poverty level" Arkhangelsk region took 6th place (after the Republic of Komi and Karelia). And how can we believe that the field of public health will improve if the re--‐ gion's population consumes less food than recommended by sanitary science, the average per cap--‐ ita. Suffice it to say, the consumption of milk at a rate of 400 liters per capita per year in 2010 was only 150 liters. And it does not grow substantially in 2006 ? And it's not in the northern position, because in the next, and the more northern Murmansk region above it.

Less than recommended, the residents of the Arkhangelsk region consume meat and meat product, potatoes, vegetables, fruits, eggs and so on. This is accompanied by a priori power defi--‐ ciency of animal protein, polyunsaturated fatty acids, vitamins, and a number of micronutrients and fiber. Among children and adolescents, a significant increase in the prevalence of so--‐called nu--‐ trition--‐related diseases (diseases related to insufficient or inadequate poor diet), in particular, of the gastrointestinal tract.

At the end of 2010 (according to Arhangelskstat) under conditions that do not meet hygien--‐ ic standards, employed 62,013 people, or 44% of the payroll number of employees. In 2011, 58% of industrial enterprises did not meet hygienic standards for noise; 39.4% --‐ in terms of vibration; 17.8% --‐ in terms of climate; 20% --‐ on electromagnetic fields; 50% --‐ on illumination. Areas of great--‐ est risk for injuries and poisoning, accidents for the period 2007--‐2011 among the total population of the city are Novodvinsk (168.7%), Korjazhma (122.3%) and Arkhangelsk (118.0%). Accordingly, the maximum of the adult population in the cities Novodvinsk (155.9%), Arkhangelsk (136.1%) and Korjazhma (107.3%).

Characteristically define social health in the Arkhangelsk Region circumstances of acute poi--‐ sonings of chemical etiology (OOHE). Among them leading place for the purpose of intoxication poisoning (56.1%), second place – is the poisoning associated with erroneous reception (15.5%), third place --‐ poisoning with suicidal intent (15.1%). The main problem of the Arkhangelsk region remains the quality of drinking water. The share of the centralized sources of drinking water, im--‐ proper hygienic standards, made in 2011: Novodvinsk --‐ 100% in Arkhangelsk --‐ 85%. In Severodvinsk 45.8% of water samples on the content of residual aluminum belong to the range of 1.1--‐2.0 MPC and 20.8% of the samples to a range of 2,1--‐5,0 MPC.

The traditional wealth of the Arkhangelsk region --‐ the forest --‐ is in critical condition (ex--‐ haustible forest) and can not make a breakthrough in the core of its civilization. There is no reason for optimism in the field of education and health. Need serious scientific forecast removal of the Arkhangelsk region of the border state But this problem is obviously not up to Russian econo--‐ mists?

Speaking of the relationship between social ecology and scientific futurology, we can not ignore the essence of man--‐made modern Western civilization. S.V. Kolycheva believes that "tech--‐ nology is presented as a super--‐social and superhuman reality, which has its own internal logic and its own laws of the development. Currently, technology dominates the human community, dictat--‐ ing their laws and their will "[22]. idea of the technical civilization sees in the "power of technicians or technical--‐rationality carriers." This position of the author, in our view, confirms the continued dominance of long linear, mechanistic thinking, despite the fact that all modern science does not cease to take an oath of commitment to a systematic approach, synergy....

Indeed, technocratic thinking aggressively confronts humanity: "... a way of thinking in--‐ volves partially sidedness, cruelty, unequivocally, the consideration money as a goal. It acts as a modern form of dogmatic, mechanistic worldview and activities "[22]. This method of communica--‐ tion civilized communities and nature, "based on mechanical principles laid down in the tech--‐ nique," which dictates to man the consumer behavior and thinking in all spheres of life.

It is important that Kolycheva quotes Heidegger, who wrote about the "escape from think--‐ ing", contrasting him to "conceptualize thinking". And she refers to Herbert Marcuse, whose mod--‐ ern man acts as a natural "byproduct of the civilization" --‐ "one--‐dimensional man with a one--‐ dimensional thinking," and he "is an instrument of production." Her belief that the human mind is part of our capitalist civilization become technocratic, and he "gave rise eternally bored person--‐ consumer." We share the author's view regarding "ideological eclecticism," which characterizes the greatest collective worldview inhabitant of a civilized society.

How is the social ecology differs from unfair prognostics (mythmaking)? The urgency of the issue stems from the idea of the technocrats allegedly mythological nature of the concept of the noosphere. Note that V.I. Vernadsky did not give the painting noosphere world, and believed noospherogenesis only way of human development and believed in this possibility Mind. In this regard, I.Y. Alexandrov asks: "Is it right to call the hypothesis noosphere V.I. Vernadsky's concept or doctrine? Are these legitimate interpretation if Vernadsky, familiar with the concept of the noosphere Edward Leroy and Teilhard de Chardin, it is not claimed to be the creation of a holistic theory of the noosphere, but left behind only a hypothesis about the transition of the biosphere into the noosphere? It seems that it is quite correct to speak not only about the hypothesis of the noosphere Vernadsky, but the concept of the noosphere in his writings and the writings of his fol--‐ lowers".

R. I. Balandin more strictly and specifically emphasizes that "Vernadsky nowhere and never called his hypothesis noosphere doctrine." In science, there is a clear understanding of the theory as mathematized system. We share this view, as well as the fact that the concept of predictive properties significantly limited.

N.N. Moiseev also generally are skeptical about the very possibility of a further develop--‐ ment of this route, considering the environmental crisis as a bifurcation point in the development of capitalist civilization. The past 2012 was indeed a milestone and confirms the validity of skepti--‐ cism mathematics and environmental scientists. Firstly, VI Civilization forum of the scientists within the UN Conference on Sustainable Development Rio + 20 chosen starting point the idea (purpose) of the World Summit in 1992 and 2002. and the 2000 Millennium Summit, the Forum noted some progress in focusing efforts and resources to achieve these goals. However, the Forum participants increasingly identified that the depth and duration of the ongoing world crises and transformations require the development and adoption of the World Summit on science--‐based long--‐term globa strategy UR carried out on the basis of a partnership of states and civilizations in response to the challenges of the XXI century. The need for the start of the transformation of production and con--‐ sumption patterns, remains open [23].

Past forty years from Stockholm can be an example of the global ecological collapse of the forecast development. And in this regard, past 2012 really should be recognized as a landmark, so this summer hosted the Summit on Development --‐ Rio + 20. We have witnessed how in fact been implemented political foundations of the global strategy for the sustainable human development (SD).

Indeed, despite some successes, there is rapid growth of the global environmental crisis. United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) on the eve of the summit issued a "Summary for policy--‐makers and decision--‐makers" --‐ report «Geo--‐5" (Global Environment Outlook), which states the complete failure of the planned 20 years ago, the plan "SD", 90 items which only 4 were posi--‐ tively assessed. Meeting the growing consumption reached the cheapest way to maximize profits. A profit is then reinvested in the satisfaction of new and increasingly growing requirements. And this development is mainly due to the reduction of the natural resources.

Exponential and is characterized by the actual state of affairs with the development of the civilization was the position of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Navi Pillay. She ap--‐ pealed in writing to all the Member States, reminding them of the commitments undertaken 20 years ago as part of the Rio Declaration, 92 which put the interests of the individual and his right to a healthy and productive life in the center of the UR. The High Commissioner has warned that the strategy focused on economic growth and do not pay enough attention to the issue of equity and related environmental issues, social issues and human rights, is not achieved economic goals. And they risk harm the planet and the fundamental rights of people living on it.

UN once again invites governments, international organizations and others. The main group, reporting to develop a number of effective measures that can reduce poverty and at the same time contribute to the creation of decent jobs, clean energy and a more rational and equitable use of natural resources. The final declaration of the summit underlines the need to translate the globa economy and the industry to "green" the rails. By 2015, will develop objectives of the sustainable development, and a new High Level Forum on Sustainable Development at the UN General Assem--‐ bly Gross domestic product (GDP) are not clearly recognized and fully displays the level of the de--‐ velopment of countries. Statistical Office of the United Nations should be to develop new indica--‐ tors that would complement GDP. To implement the concept of SD is necessary to change the cur--‐ rent paradigm of the development based on unlimited economic growth. To move to the SD across the world need to radically change existing in the consumption and production patterns. However, the need to start work on the transformation of the production and consumption patterns, re--‐ mains open.

B.N. Kuzyk, Y. V. Yakovets recognize that "forecasting cycles and crises – is one of the most complex and still poorly developed branches of the social science and practice." But they are, nev--‐ ertheless, believe that this task is quite a force to science, "armed with the knowledge of the laws of cyclical dynamics, and practices based on this science. Prognostic studies should proceed from the real development of the world civilization. We think that there is a great Russian culture and traditions primarily domestic education and health care, culture, which should be preserved and further developed out of the market services. For the development of the Arctic is not necessary to require social revenge of the forecasting it for thousands of years to come. You need to consider the scientific concept and its implementation.