Social forecasting in the strategic management of the development of higher education in Russia

Social forecasting in the strategic management of the development of higher education in Russia

Автор: Lenkov Roman V., Patsula Andrei V.

Журнал: Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast @volnc-esc-en

Рубрика: Social and economic development

Статья в выпуске: 6 т.14, 2021 года.

Бесплатный доступ

Social forecasting is directly related to the management of changes in the economy and social sphere, including higher education. The relevance of the study is associated with the analysis of the problem of forecasting indicators of higher education through the prism of the targets of national projects implemented in the context of a prolonged COVID-19 pandemic. The global epidemic aggravates the socio-economic situation in the world community, makes it highly instable and uncertain, thereby increasing the demand for social development forecasts. The purpose of our research is to study the potential of social forecasting in the state strategic management of the development of higher education in Russia. A special task revealing its scientific novelty is to diagnose the problem of measurement and profiling the methodology of reproduction of the “strategic intelligentsia” (elite) as a “transformative” subjectivity. In the study, we rely on the theory of the socio-cultural management model put forward by Professor A.V. Tikhonov, as well as on the authors socioprognostic approach to management, which acts as a special methodological means of scientific search, integrating ideas and theoretical constructs in the field of social sciences and humanities, while substantiating the solutions to promising problems with the use of modern project-based technologies. With the help of these tools, we profile the multivariate levels of scientific foresight and strategic management, analyze the forecasting and regulatory actions of the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Russian Federation as a macroregulator of the functioning and development of higher education, and identify key components in reformatting and optimizing social forecasting in the state strategic management of higher education development. The work is based on the perspective practice of research of manageability of regional development and social group formation, which is in demand by the academic community, acquired by scientists of the Center for Sociology of Management and Social Technologies of the Institute Sociology - Branch of the Federal Center of Theoretical and Applied Sociology of the Russian Academy of Sciences in 2015-2020, including that achieved in the study of higher education as a resource for managing the socio-cultural modernization of regions. The materials of the article have theoretical and practical significance; they are intended for specialists in the field of state, regional and municipal management, as well as experts in social forecasting and strategic management of the development of higher education in Russia.

Еще

Socio-economic forecasting, development management, strategic forecast and management, socio-cultural modernization, higher education, social group formation, intelligentsia

Короткий адрес: https://sciup.org/147236300

IDR: 147236300   |   DOI: 10.15838/esc.2021.6.78.13

Список литературы Social forecasting in the strategic management of the development of higher education in Russia

  • Savel’eva A.Ya. (Ed.) Prognozirovanie razvitiya i monitoring sostoyaniya vysshego i srednego professional'nogo obrazovaniya (teoriya, metodologiya, praktika) [Development Forecasting and Monitoring of Higher and Secondary Vocational Education (Theory, Methodology, Practice)]. Moscow: NIIVO, 1999. 192 p.
  • Fetisova G.G., Bondarenko V.M. (Eds.) Prognozirovanie budushchego: novaya paradigma [Forecasting the Future: New Paradigm]. Moscow: Ekonomika, 2008. 283 p.
  • Len’kov R.V. The problem of targeting sociocultural modernization of Russian regions: Patterns, regulators, subjectivity. Nauchnyi rezul’tat. Sotsiologiya i upravlenie=Research Result. Sociology and Management, 2020, vol. 6, no. 4, pp. 42–54. DOI: 10.18413/2408-9338-2020-6-4-0-3 (in Russian).
  • Balatsky E.V., Ekimova N.A. Public administration tools: Forecasting vs designing. Upravlenets=The Manager, 2021, vol. 12, no. 1, pp. 18–31. DOI: 10.29141/2218-5003-2021-12-1-2 (in Russian).
  • Sanders N. Forecasting Fundamentals. New York: Business Expert Press, 2016. 122 p.
  • Bikmetov E.Yu., Luk’yanov A.V. Normative component of goal setting and goal achievement in social design. Vestnik Permskogo natsional’nogo issledovatel’skogo politekhnicheskogo universiteta. Sotsial’no-ekonomicheskie nauki=PNRPU Sociology and Economics Bulletin, 2021, no. 1, pp. 59–68. DOI: 10.15593/2224-9354/2021.1.5 (in Russian).
  • Selivanov A.I. Methodological platforms and methods of strategic forecasting: World experience and Russian potential. Vlast’=The Authority, 2021, vol. 29, no. 1, pp. 280–290 (in Russian).
  • Len’kov R.V. Characteristics of the components of higher education in Russia: Sociological and managerial analysis. Vestnik Universiteta (GUU), 2012, no. 20, pp. 122–129 (in Russian).
  • Balatsky E.V., Ekimova N.A. Academic effectiveness of Russian higher economic schools. Terra Economicus, 2014, vol. 12, no. 1, pp. 13–27 (in Russian).
  • Savinkov V.I., Klyucharev G.A. Analiz i prognoz chislennosti studentov i prepodavatel’skogo personala uchrezhdenii professional’nogo obrazovaniya [Analysis and Forecasting of the Number of Students and Teaching Staff of Vocational Education Institutions]. Moscow: TsSPiM, 2014. 96 p.
  • Ershtein L.B. Excessive workload of university teachers as a factor of destruction of higher education in Russia. Vestnik Permskogo natsional’nogo issledovatel’skogo politekhnicheskogo universiteta. Sotsial’no-ekonomicheskie nauki=PNRPU Sociology and Economics Bulletin, 2021, no. 2, pp. 75–87. DOI: 10.15593/2224-9354/2021.2.6 (in Russian).
  • Len’kov R.V. Social project management as a subject of social and management discourse. Nauchnyi rezul’tat. Sotsiologiya i upravlenie=Research Result. Sociology and Management, 2018, vol. 4, no. 4, pp. 101–112. DOI: 10.18413/2408-9338-2018-4-4-0-9 (in Russian).
  • Mannheim K. Izbrannoe: Sotsiologiya kul’tury [Essays on the Sociology of Culture]. Moscow; Saint Petersburg: Universitetskaya kniga, 2000. 501 p.
  • Davydov A.P. The methodological “middle” as a tool for studying social reality. Rossiya reformiruyushchayasya=Russia in Reform: Yearbook, 2020, no. 18, pp. 529–564. DOI: 10.19181/ezheg.2020.23529 (in Russian).
  • Chernysh M.F. The intellectuals and the middle class. In: Intelligentsiya: Mnogoobrazie stilei i obrazov zhizni: Sb. nauchn. statei [Intellectuals: Diversity of Styles and Ways of Life: Collection of Scientific Articles.]. Moscow: RSUH, 2020. P. 39–45 (in Russian).
  • Randers J. 2052: A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years. Vermont: Chelsea Green Publishing, 2012. 304 p.
  • Lepskii V.E. Becoming strategic entities: Setting the problem. Refleksivnye protsessy i upravlenie=Reflexive Processes and Control, 2002, vol. 2, no. 1, pp. 5–23 (in Russian).
  • Tikhonov A.V. Problems of social group formation in Russian regions with different levels of socio-cultural modernization: adequate responses to strategic challenges. Rossiya reformiruyushchayasya=Russia in Reform: Yearbook, 2020, no. 18, pp. 160–175. DOI: 10.19181/ezheg.2020.7160 (in Russian).
  • Shcherbina V.V. Ratsionaliziruyushchie diagnosticheskie upravlencheskie sotsial’nye tekhnologii [Rationalizing Diagnostic Management Social Technologies]. Moscow: Novyi khronograf, 2018. 416 p.
  • Lepskii V.E. Obshchestvennoe uchastie v samorazvivayushchikhsya polisub”ektnykh sredakh [Public Participation in Self-Developing Polysubjective Environments]. Moscow: Kogito-Tsentr, 2019. 141 p.
  • Börner K., Rouse W.B., Trunfio P., Stanley H.E. Forecasting innovations in science, technology and education. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2018, vol. 115, no. 50, pp. 12573–12581.
  • Bhimani H., Mention A.-L., Barlatier P.-J. Social media and innovation: A systematic literature review and future research directions. Technological Forecasting & Social Change. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2018.10.007 (accessed: October 20, 2021).
  • Iden J., Methlie L. B., Christensen G. E. The nature of strategic foresight research: A systematic literature review and future research directions. Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 2017, no. 116, pp. 87–97.
  • Petticrew M., Roberts H. How to appraise the studies: an introduction to assessing study quality. In: Systematic Reviews in the Social Sciences: A Practical Guide. 2006. Pp. 125–163.
  • Sharma P. Forecasting: Roles, Steps and Techniques. Management Function. Available at: https://www.yourarticlelibrary.com/management/forecasting/forecasting-roles-steps-and-techniques-management-function/70032 (accessed: October 20, 2021).
  • Gorshkov M. K. Society – sociology – power: On the question of interaction. Sotsiologicheskie issledovaniya=Sociological Studies, 2012, no. 7 (339), pp. 23–28 (in Russian).
  • Dridze T.M. (Ed.) Prognoznoe sotsial’noe proektirovanie: Teoretiko-metodologicheskie i metodicheskie problem [Forecasting Social Projection: Theoretical and Methodological Problems]. Moscow: Nauka, 1994. 302 p.
  • Kalyuzhnova N.Ya., Tret’yak V.P. Foresight as a methodological tool for creative forecasting. Nauka. Innovatsii. Obrazovanie=Science. Innovation. Education, 2007, no. 51, pp. 15–30 (in Russian).
  • Tikhonov A.V., Merzlyakov A.A. Manageability of social group formation processes in regions with different levels of sociocultural modernization. Nauchnyi rezul’tat. Sotsiologiya i upravlenie=Research Result. Sociology and management, 2019, vol. 5, no. 4, pp. 176–183. DOI: 10.18413/2408-9338-2019-5-4-0-15 (in Russian).
  • Patsula A.V., Shchelokov D.V. The specifics of managing institutional transformations in Russia. Izvestiya Sankt-Peterburgskogo gosudarstvennogo ekonomicheskogo universiteta, 2019, no. 5–1 (119), pp. 133–138 (in Russian).
Еще
Статья научная
QR-код для установки приложения SciUp Наведите камеру и скачайте бесплатное приложение SciUp