Will there be a new stability? (The newest trends of dynamics of social tension and protest settings in the Russian society)

In Russia in 2017-2018 a low level of superficial protest activity was combined with contradictory underwater tendencies in the development of national public consciousness. At the same time, the growth in demand for changes is paradoxically combined with the growth of calmness of the Russians, with decrease in their alarms about the development of Russia. The author traces this situation in three indicators - according to the estimates of social tension, of the situation in the country and of the probability of protests. The mentioned paradox is explained by the fact that the majority of the Russians hope for changes not with the aggravation of the political struggle, but rather with the strengthening of the existing power, which received from the people another mandate of trust in March 2018. The situation in the country in early 2018 seemed to allow talking about the formation of a new informal social contract between the government and the people - the political loyalty of citizens in exchange for socio-economic improvements. However, the decision taken in June 2018 to raise the retirement age immediately caused a strong outbreak of protests, putting in question the social peace that emerged in the first half of 2018.