Comparative analysis of tax effects from agricultural subsidies by the Siberian federal district regions

The purpose of this study is to conduct a comparative analysis of the tax effects of subsidies to the agro-industrial complex in the regions of the Siberian Federal District to identify and categorize regional patterns of interaction between state support, production volume, and fiscal returns. The objectives of the study included assessing regional differentiation by production volume, subsidies, and tax revenues; calculating indicators of the fiscal effectiveness of support; and identifying factors influencing subsidy effectiveness. The study focused on seven constituent entities of the Siberian Federal District: the Altaii, Krasnoyarsk, Irkutsk, Kemerovo, Novosibirsk, Omsk, and Tomsk Regions. The methodological basis was a comparative analysis and a coefficient method using data from Rosstat, the Federal Tax Service, and regional Ministries of Agriculture for 2020– 2024. The results revealed three interaction models. The effective model (Novosibirsk Region) is characterized by a 21.7 % reduction in subsidies with a 24.7 % increase in production and an 8.8-fold increase in tax revenues. Fiscal efficiency here was 0.85 rubles per 1 ruble of subsidies. The balanced model (the Altai Region, the Omsk Region) demonstrates a high total return (0.67 and 0.62 rubles, respectively), but with negative dynamics. The ineffective model (the Krasnoyarsk Region, the Kemerovo Region) demonstrates high subsidy intensity (79.2–99.7 rubles per 1,000 rubles of production value) with a low fiscal return (0.14–0.02 rubles). It was established that the key factor in efficiency is investment in fixed capital, which is confirmed by the abnormally high share of property tax in the Novosibirsk Region (13 % versus 0–4.11 % in other regions). Maximum tax efficiency is achieved by focusing subsidies on investment projects rather than on compensating operating costs. The predominance of personal income tax (67–89 % of the tax structure) indicates the raw materials-based nature of agricultural development. Increasing fiscal returns requires a shift from supporting gross production to stimulating deep processing and technological modernization.