Comparative analysis of trajectories of economic complexity of regional development: the role of situational modeling

A comparative analysis of the trajectories of assessments of the economic complexity of the regions based on two approaches is carried out: 1) the choice of such a sector or type of economic activity in the region for development to a strong level, which ensures the maximum growth of the economic complexity of the region; 2) the choice of such a sector or type of economic activity in the region for development to a strong level, which has the maximum assessment of economic complexity. The analysis of the trajectories of assessments of the economic complexity of regions based on situational modeling can be useful in solving management problems aimed at increasing the economic complexity of the region, as it allows us to assess the mutual impact of changes in the structures of strong sectors of regional economies. At the same time, it is advisable to consider the trajectories of assessments of the economic complexity of regions constructed in two different ways as alternatives for comparison with the trajectories obtained on the basis of expert choice of the direction of diversification. The results of regression analysis are presented, indicating the possibility of forecasting the index of economic complexity of regions by sectors using the index of economic complexity of regions by types of economic activity, the first and second main components of the structure of the economy by types of economic activity.