Average annual temperature as an exogenous growth factor for natural gas consumption

Research into the possible forecasting of natural gas consumption dynamics can help create an analytical basis for checking the economic feasibility of developing new fields, addressing social issues, thereby reducing operational and economic risks for the industry. Various theoretical models for predicting natural gas production and consumption using a cross-correlation function are compared and the relationship between exogenous variables is analysed. The concept proposed in the article allows to establish a pattern of periods when the dependence in question is influenced to a greater extent by only one of the “essential” exogenous factors. Should this trend continue, gas fuel production and consumption are expected to increase by up to 20 per cent by 2025, depending on the regions. The results of this study will be useful for policy makers in natural gas production and consumption, as they allow for more effective planning within a sustainable energy policy framework.