Срок баллистического существования космических аппаратов CubeSat на низких околоземных околокруговых орбитах по наблюдательным данным

Ballistic lifetime of CubeSat spacecraft in low-earth orbits based on observational data

This work presents an estimate of the orbital lifetime (ballistic lifetime) of CubeSat spacecraft based on publicly available orbital data in the TLE format. A total of 2964 CubeSats were considered and classified by orbit type and design configuration. Among them, 1625 spacecraft completed their orbital lifetime and satisfied the selection criteria on initial orbital parameters (altitude from 250 to 670 km and eccentricity up to 0.004). The lifetime was evaluated as a function of the launch year from 2010 to 2025 (to account for variations in solar activity) and the initial orbital altitude. For orbits with altitudes of 350–430 km and inclination corresponding to the ISS, the lifetime ranges from 4 months to 2.5 years, regardless of spacecraft parameters. The most representative results were obtained for this class of orbits at altitudes of 370–430 km, as well as for sun-synchronous orbits at 490–610 km. For the most common CubeSat form factors (1U, 3U, and 6U), the estimated lifetimes range from 3 months to 3.2 years for ISS-like orbits and from 1.1 to 7.7 years for sun-synchronous orbits. The primary factors determining the ballistic lifetime of CubeSats in low Earth orbit are the level of solar activity during the orbital lifetime and the initial orbital altitude.