Statistical assessment of the influence of market factors on the prices of grain and leguminous crops in the Siberian federal district

In 2022-2023, price volatility in the grain market of the Russian Federation increased, which led to a significant decrease in the profitability of grain production and increased uncertainty in the industry. The objective of the study is to assess the impact of key market factors that determine the dynamics of prices for grain and leguminous crops in the Siberian Federal District (SFD) and to clarify the medium-term prospects for price growth for grain products. The research methods include time series analysis, correlation and regression analysis. In the Siberian Federal District, during the period under review, after peak values of RUB 17-18 thousand per 1 ton of grain and leguminous crops, prices fell below RUB 9 thousand per 1 ton, but since mid-2023, there has been an increase with stabilization at the level of RUB 12-13,5 thousand. The greatest correlation is observed between prices with wheat futures and the FAO global food inflation index. The influence of the grain stock factor should be considered insignificant (the correlation for 2022-2023 with prices was -0,42). There was virtually no correlation with the dollar exchange rate in 2023. Univariate and multivariate regression analysis between prices and the market factors considered did not reveal any stable regression relationships in the Siberian Federal District. The linear correlation coefficient (index) did not rise above 0.66 in any of the models, and nonlinear correlation was virtually absent. The best statistical characteristics are demonstrated by the model of dependence of prices in the Siberian Federal District on the cost of wheat futures and grain reserves in the Russian Federation, but it can only describe 43 % of the price variance. Internal factors that determine the variability of prices for grain and leguminous crops in the regions of the Siberian Federal District prevail: export duties on grain; purchase prices in intervention funds; domestic demand for grain; expectations of grain producers; competition in interregional markets.