Statistical analysis of raw sugar material for sugar producer complex

In the article examines the statistical data on the development of average weight and average sugar content of sugar beet roots. The successful solution of the problem of forecasting these raw indices is essential for solving problems of sugar producing complex control. In the paper by calculating the autocorrelation function demonstrated that the predominant trend component of the growth raw characteristics. For construct the prediction model is proposed to use an autoregressive first and second order. It is shown that despite the small amount of experimental data, which provide raw sugar producing enterprises laboratory, using autoregression is justified. The proposed model allows correctly out properly the dynamics of changes raw indexes in the time, which confirms the estimates. In the article highlighted the fact that in the case the predominance trend components in the dynamics of the studied characteristics of sugar beet proposed prediction models provide the better quality of the forecast. In the presence the oscillations portions of the curve describing the change raw performance, for better construction of the forecast required increase number of measurements data. In the article also presents the results of the use adaptive prediction Brown’s model for predicting sugar beet raw performance. The statistical analysis allowed conclusions about the level of quality sufficient to describe changes raw indices for the forecast development. The optimal discount rates data are identified that determined by the form of the curve of growth sugar content of the beet root and mass in the process of maturation. Formulated conclusions of the quality of the forecast, depending on these factors that determines the expert forecaster. In the article shows the calculated expression, derived from experimental data that allow calculate changes of the raw material feature of sugar beet in the process of maturation.