Statistical evaluation syphilis epidemics 1990-2020

Sexually transmitted diseases are common among the population of the country, mostly in people of reproductive age. During epidemics, the number of patients increases tenfold, and epidemics last for decades. The objectives of morbidity forecasting are to assess the duration of the epidemic and its size. Based on the analysis of statistical data of the syphilis epidemic of 1990-2020, the paper provides an assessment of its duration in the whole country, temporary peaks of morbidity in the regions. Based on the analysis, a model of the epidemic is proposed. Taking into account real data, probability distributions of the duration of the epidemic and the maximum incidence are constructed.