Strategic models for food security forecasting

The problem of making qualitatively new policy decisions in the field of food security is being raised, which is due to the need to ensure sustainable standards of food consumption and to achieve its physical and economic accessibility on this basis. It is indicated that the forecasting tools used in Russian and foreign practice do not have sufficient simulation capabilities for proper scientific justification of promising changes. On the basis of the database formed by the author in terms of regions for the period of 2016-2018 and using software for its economic and mathematical processing, models for describing the level of production and consumption of basic types of products per capita are built. The models obtained, on the one hand, support the hypothesis of the importance of the level of reproduction of resources for ensuring physical accessibility of products, and the level of purchasing power of the population for ensuring economic accessibility of products, on the other hand, provide a quantitative assessment of the possible changes in these aspects of food security under the influence of the main factors. It has been shown that knowledge of such dependencies not only allows us to understand, but also to determine how to influence the key parameters of the food system and what measures can be taken to develop agriculture in order to balance demand and supply at the level of sustainable consumption standards and above. In our opinion, measures to subsidize the profitability of producers and measures of socio-economic support for the population can serve as the most appropriate option here. The practical value of the results is that they enhance methodological support to coordinate management decisions in the sphere of the national food security.