Structural shifts and problems of economic growth

Ключевые      слова:      Структурные      сдвиги, экономический рост, воспроизводственные процессы, структурная политика государства

The current state of the economy is characterized by the presence of significant disproportions between the most important structural elements and the predominance of regressive development trends in strategically promising basic industries and the corresponding infrastructure. Attempts of the last decade to stimulate the reproduction process and ensure stable rates of economic growth based on liberal principles of state policy did not lead to proper results. Structural analysis in the development of the national economy has not yet found proper application in the mechanism for encouraging expanded reproduction of the Russian economy.

Taking into account the dynamic nature of the structural shift and its special place in the economic system, it was determined that the structural shift is a dynamic mechanism formed due to a qualitative change in factors of various types and directions, and having a cumulative effect on the reproduction processes, rates and quality of economic growth of the national economy . In determining the essence of the structural shift, the emphasis is placed on its effective and qualitative change, because this moment is extremely important in order to distinguish two close concepts - “structural shift” and “structural change”. The relationship between structural shifts and economic cycles is revealed. The economic cycle is a set of a certain set of structural shifts, but at the same time, it must be admitted that cyclical fluctuations also have an impact on structural shifts. Thus, the dual nature of structural changes is manifested -they are both a cause and a consequence of cyclical fluctuations.

Expanded national reproduction is a necessary condition for economic growth, because without renewed production on an increasing scale, an increase in national wealth alone is impossible. Taking into account the complexity of economic relations, when several types of interactions can exist simultaneously, a model is proposed - “factors - economic growth”.

In relation to the topic of this study, the general nature of the relationship with the allocation of major large blocks was reflected: social needs (as the main driving force of economic development), factors affecting structural changes, structural changes themselves, types of reproduction and economic growth, stagnation and economic decline. Thus, structural changes are a dynamic mechanism that transmits the influence of various factors on the processes of expanded reproduction, and as a result, forms economic growth. Economic growth, as a more general phenomenon that characterizes the nature of economic development and at the same time its goal, is a combination of several multidirectional structural changes that determine its presence (direction), quality and level. The main factor affecting economic growth through structural changes is social needs, which constantly grow in accordance with the laws of the need to rise.

The main essence and main characteristics of structural changes are defined - their effectiveness and quality based on quantitative indicators - mass, index, speed and efficiency of structural changes based on the author's approach; six groups of basic indicators affecting the efficiency and quality of structural changes are summarized and highlighted.

Progressive and regressive structural changes in the Russian economy were revealed by calculating the indexes of structural shifts and mathematical coefficients of determination, as well as by means of a graphical analysis of the main structural elements.

The analysis revealed a number of negative trends in the dynamics of economic structures in the economy. The apparent slowdown in economic growth in the quarterly dynamics of 2012 and 2013. Speaks of the beginning of recession processes in the economy, and the fluctuations and multidirectional actions of certain types of activity in the formation of GDP, in our opinion, are evidence of the lack of a clear, targeted policy for managing structural changes.

The analysis of gross value added indices by main types of economic activity in the economy (in the sectoral context) showed:

• -    in the long term from 2003 to 2012 Only in 3 out of 8 main types of economic activity there is a positive trend in the change of indices: 1. public administration and military security, social insurance; 2. real estate operations, rent; 3. transportation and communication.

• -    during the crisis period (2008–2009) it is characterized by a decrease in the indices of practically all the main types of activity, except for 2 types of activity: mining, as well as public administration and military security, social insurance;

• -    in the near short-term period (2011–2012) all activities had a decrease in indices, except for 3: financial activities; wholesale and retail trade, repair; public administration and military security, social insurance.

Thus, the main trend in different periods of development of the Russian economy is a slowdown in the growth rate of the production sector with an increase in the growth rate of the service sector, which is expressed by a change in the share of the relevant areas in the structure of gross value added. The predominant role of service industries in shaping and maintaining sustainable economic growth and increasing employment cannot be viewed in the economy as a progressive trend. In contrast to the developed countries, where the dynamics of these indicators indicates the manifestation of the characteristic signs of movement of a particular economy to a post-industrial society, it is possible to speak so far only about the preferential development of the services sector as compared with the sphere of production (taking into account its lower capital intensity, low barriers to business, low monopolization). Analysis of the structure of consumption shows that, despite the high rates of development, the share of consumption of services in the economy has changed very little and amounts to 20%, while in developed countries this figure can reach 40%.

Regressive structural changes were revealed when analyzing the structure of foreign trade of the Russian economy. The crisis period of 2008–2009 in the Russian economy was accompanied by significant structural changes - a decrease in the growth rate of imports, with a relatively more even movement of the export index, which almost repeats the movement of the GDP growth rate.

The structure of export operations is dominated by sales of fuel and energy resources, which invariably increased during the study period and reached 72.2% of the total volume of export operations.

The following basic structural shifts directly related to the dynamics of economic growth in the Russian economy are the elements of using GDP — final consumption and gross capital formation expenditures.

The analysis shows the negative dynamics of the gross capital formation index, which, firstly, declined significantly in 2009, and secondly, declined significantly in 2011–2012. after a sharp rebound in 2010. Reducing the rate of growth in savings could turn into serious problems in the future, as this reduces the potential base for future investments. At the same time, the final consumption expenditure index has insignificant fluctuations, its dynamics are more even.

The analysis showed that the uniform dynamics of the growth rate of expenditures on consumption is caused by a significant structural shift in household consumption, and minor changes in government expenditures (which, in our opinion, is a positive fact). This happened with the almost unchanged structure of household consumption in the context of two areas - goods and services. On the contrary, in other structural elements of the use of the monetary income of the population there have been significant changes:

• -    structural changes in the purchase of currency and the increase (decrease) of money in the hands of the population have appeared, manifested in a decrease in the share of these elements in the overall structure;

• -    a structural shift in the increase in savings was noted (despite significant fluctuations in the savings rate, which intensified during the crisis years, the trend is well traced);

These changes indicate a change in the economic behavioral stereotypes of the economically active population of Russia, more in line with the interests of economic growth: there is a gradual departure from foreign currency investments as a “people's” means of saving and keeping money on hand (under the pillow), due to an increase in savings in the banking sector system.

It should be noted that according to the results of the calculation of the coefficient of determination, the closeness of the relationship between the dynamics of economic growth and final consumption is slightly higher (R2 = 0.98) and the closeness of the connection between economic growth and gross accumulation (R2 = 0.83). This can not be called a progressive dependence -practice shows that economic growth, mainly provided by consumption processes, cannot be stable in the long run. A less significant link between economic growth and gross accumulation and investment, as well as the unfavorable downward trend in the growth rate of investments in fixed capital identified in the course of graphical analysis, can significantly affect the future stability of the expanded reproduction mechanism of the Russian economy.

The import structure also cannot be considered optimal for a potential positive impact on economic growth, as it is represented by a significant share of finished products, where about half is occupied by machines, equipment and vehicles. In recent years, in 2011–2012. the slowdown in the growth of imports, in our opinion, occurs under the influence of two factors: first, it stabilizes after a sharp increase in imports in 2010, due to the pent-up demand formed over the years of the crisis; secondly, a significant part of imported goods is being replaced by similar Russian ones. As an example - in recent years there has been the opening of production in Russia by many leading automotive companies, with the result that for the period from 2010 to 2012. growth in the production of cars, trailers and semi-trailers was 62%, which can be noted as a progressive structural shift.