Structural and dynamic model of transport effects of economic growth (case of Rostov region)

The removal of infrastructural restrictions on economic growth for regions and economic sectors is a priority for Russia. The relevance of the problem of transport effects assessment at the regional level is increasing due to the high depreciation of the existing infrastructure as well as the necessity of creating new facilities that can become a determining factor for economic dynamics acceleration. The paper is devoted to methodology development for the impact assessment of transport infrastructure on the economic development of territories, model tools development for effects' assessment and their testing experimentally in the case of Rostov region, whose economic growth rate showed an obvious slowdown in recent years. The Rostov region's model made it possible to obtain a series of probabilistic assessments of scenarios for social and economic development, the outcome of which depends on the implementation of investment activity scenarios and forecasts, dynamics of passenger and cargo flows, and provision of the territory with road and rail infrastructure. Estimations showed that an increase in the index of investments in fixed assets and the share of investments in the “transport” sector in the total volume of investments in fixed assets, accompanied by road quality improvement, stimulates growth of gross regional product and turnover of road transport. At the same time the freight turnover of rail transport has a positive relationship only with the investment index. The significant contribution to the economic growth of Rostov region in 2000-2020 years was connected with the long-term investment multiplier that formed the structure of traffic flows in the value chain. Quantitative estimates of the effects of investments in transport infrastructure can be taken into account in development programs of Rostov region to justify strategic goals and specific objectives of regional development.