Trends in Russian agricultural exports

Over the past decade, Russian agricultural exports have evolved from a peripheral policy concern into a major driver of economic growth, generating additional foreign exchange earnings, sustaining rural employment, and stimulating technological upgrading in processing industries. The purpose of this study is to comprehensively identify the trends, drivers and constraints shaping Russian agricultural export performance through to 2030 by synthesising statistical indicators, strategic documents and scholarly contributions. The methodology combines comparative time‑series analysis, index decomposition and scenario modelling that incorporates global demand shifts, exchange‑rate fluctuations, reconfigured logistics chains and government support measures. Findings reveal that between 2018 and 2024 the value of Russian agricultural exports expanded by more than forty percent while the commodity mix became more diversified: the share of cereals fell from fifty‑six to forty‑one percent, whereas shipments of processed food products more than doubled. Export geography has pivoted towards South‑East Asia, the Middle East and Africa, reflecting logistic realignment and the activation of dedicated state‑backed export infrastructure. Constraining factors include sanctions‑related risks, limited shipping capacity, exchange‑rate volatility and insufficient digital marketing penetration. Under an optimistic scenario, export revenues could reach forty‑seven billion United States dollars by 2030 provided that innovation‑driven agricultural technologies are intensified, domestic quality‑traceability systems are expanded and the network of international distribution hubs is broadened.