Ice extent trends in the Barents and Kara Seas during recent climate change

Certain areas of the Arctic region, primarily the Barents and Kara Seas, have high resource potential. This is the place where hydrocarbon deposits are explored and developed, and where the main transport corridor of the Northern Sea Route begins. In recent decades, significant climate changes have been observed in the Arctic, which are called "Arctic amplification". It manifests in the fact that climate warming here occurs 2-3 times faster than in temperate latitudes, which seriously affects ice conditions in different seasons of the year. This work provides a quantitative assessment of the spatio-temporal features of sea ice extent trends in certain areas of the Barents and Kara Seas in different seasons (months) of the year under conditions of recent changes in the Arctic climate. For the period of the current climate norm of 1991-2020 it was established that during the periods of greatest (March-April) and least (September) development of ice cover, the trends of decreasing ice coverage are observed only in a small part of the study region: in March-April - in the eastern part of the Barents Sea, in September - in the northeast of the Kara Sea. During these months, the square of ice cover in the rest of the water area fluctuates around the average long-term value. From May to September, when there is a seasonal decrease in ice cover, the long-term process of decreasing ice cover begins in May in the southwest of the study region, spreads to the northeast, gradually weakening in the southwest. From October to February, when there is a seasonal increase in ice cover, the long-term process of decreasing ice cover moves in the opposite direction: it begins in October in the northeast of the study region, spreads to the southwest, weakening in the northeast, in November-December it covers almost the entire water area, and by February is observed only in the west of the region. The results obtained can be used in developing a strategy for the search and development of hydrocarbon deposits, as well as long-term planning of transport operations along the Northern Sea Route in the coming decades.