Trends in the economic development of Russia’s northwest regions: A structural approach to monitoring

The study is devoted to the systematic monitoring and analysis of key trends in the economic development of the Northwestern Federal District under the conditions of unprecedented sanctions pressure that began in 2022. Based on an analysis of operational statistics from Rosstat for the period 2022–2024, key trends in the development of the regional economies of the constituent entities in Northwestern Russia under external pressure are identified. Achieving the study's objective required solving such tasks as aggregating and critically reviewing the experience of monitoring economic growth in territories, forming a system of indicators for monitoring short-term economic development at the regional level, and testing the proposed indicator system. The analysis of the economy is conducted at the key stages of the economic process (production, generation of income, and its use). It is revealed that in the production of gross product in the regions of the Northwestern Federal District, trends of regional specialization are intensifying – the locomotives of positive dynamics in industry and agriculture are the leading regions in these types of activities, while in other regions the dynamics are either insignificant or negative. A transformation in the structure of income distribution in the economy of the Northwestern Federal District is observed: business and state incomes are shifting in favor of household incomes against the backdrop of a labor market shortage and an incomplete adaptation to external pressure. Due to rising household incomes, consumer demand shows sharp positive dynamics and becomes a key factor for economic growth. To address the identified problems, directions for economic policy are proposed, which could contribute to accelerating and improving the quality of economic growth in the regions of Northwestern Russia.