Theoretical and methodological approach to assessing the financial stability of the socio-economic development of territorial system

In modern conditions of turbulence of socio-economic development, the study of the financial stability of territorial systems at various levels of government and the search for effective tools for its regulation are becoming relevant. The aim of the study is to develop a methodological approach to assessing the financial stability of the development of territorial systems at the regional and municipal levels of government. To achieve this goal, the following tasks were defined: to identify the features, advantages and disadvantages of applying statistical and economic-mathematical approaches to assessing the financial stability of territorial development at the regional and municipal levels; to develop our own methodological approach. The methodological approach presented in the study involves the systematic use of various methods: statistical indicators (coefficient of variation and standard deviations), reflecting the variability of the dynamics of financial development of the elements of the territorial socio-economic system (financial institutions, enterprises of all types of economic activity, households and the public administration sector), maps. According to W. Shewhart charts of financial development indicators, to search for control boundaries beyond which indicates a violation of the financial stability of the system's development, regression modeling to assess influencing factors, ARIMA modeling to predict the most likely and alternative scenarios for the deployment of the dynamics of financial stability of territorial systems in the future. Our methodological approach makes it possible to assess the financial stability of the development of all elements of the territorial socio-economic system, as well as to identify its most vulnerable elements, the stability of which is under threat, and in the future to choose more effective mechanisms for stabilizing the financial development of territorial systems at the regional and municipal levels.