The Arctic ice: monitoring and adaptation measures
Автор: Zelenina Larisa I., Antipin Alexey L.
Журнал: Arctic and North @arctic-and-north
Рубрика: Ecology
Статья в выпуске: 18, 2015 года.
Бесплатный доступ
Ice condition monitoring in the Arctic seas allows evaluating the impact of changes by analyzing the two opposite points of view — Arctic ice is melting and ice is included into the “cold cycle”. Histogram of the area with the Arctic paleocrystic ice (2002—2013), and statistical analyze of the collected data allowed to construct a polynomial trend that defines a sufficient degree of probability and predicted values of the minimum area of the Arctic sea ice. The best model was selected — the method of harmonic balance and the interval forecasts of the ice cover of the Arctic seas for 2015 and 2016 were composed. Risk consideration under the climate change is very important for mining industries, maritime navigation and infrastructure in the Russian Arctic, in order to minimize losses arising from possible threats.
Arctic, sea ice, trend model, forecast of the ice cover, into account risks, threats, minimization of losses
Короткий адрес: https://sciup.org/148318746
IDR: 148318746
Список литературы The Arctic ice: monitoring and adaptation measures
- Semenov S.M. Metody otsenki posledstvij izmeneniya klimata dlya fizicheskikh I biologicheskikh system [Methods for assessing climate change impacts on physical and biological systems]. St. Petersburg, Rosgidromet, 2012, pp. 400—429.
- Dymnikov V.P. Problemy modelirovaniya klimata i ego izmenenij [Modeling of climate and its changes]. Moscow, Institut vychislitel'noj matematiki RАN, 2006, 27p.
- Shanchenko N.I. Lektsii po ehkonometrike. [Lectures on econometrics]. Ul'yanovsk, 2008, 140p.
- Lukashin Y.P. Аdaptivnye metody kratkosrochnogo prognozirovaniya vremennykh ryadov. [Adaptive methods of short-term time series forecasting]. Moscow, Finansy i statistika, 2003, 415p.
- Frolov I.E., Gudkovich Z.M., Karklin V.P., Smolyanitskij V.M., Klyachkin S.V., Frolov S.V. Glava 10. Morskoj led (Chapter 10. Sea ice) Available at: http://downloads.igce.ru/publications/metodi_ocenki/10.pdf (accessed 21 January 2015).
- Chuvakin O. Аrktika: ottaet ili zamyorznet? (The Arctic: will it melt or freeze?) Available at:http://topwar.ru/27187-arktika-ottaet-ili-zamerznet.html (accessed 12 January 2015)
- Nakamura M. Zemlyu zhdet global'noe pokholodanie v 2015 godu (Earth is waiting for the global cooling in 2015) Available at: http://rbcdaily.ru/autonews/5629499-87649152 (accessed 21 January 2015).
- Fedkushova S.I., Zelenina L.I. Аnaliz sostoyaniya l'dov Аrktiki [The analysis of ice conditions in the Arctic]. Sovremennye problemy matematiki: Materialy Vserossijskoj nauchnoprakticheskoj konferentsii, priurochennoj k 105-letiyu pedagogicheskogo obrazovaniya na Dal'nem Vostoke [Modern Problems of Mathematics: Proceedings of the All-Russian scientific-practical conference dedicated to the 105th anniversary of teacher education in the Far East]. Vladivostok, Dal'nevostochnyj federal'nyj universitet, 2014, p. 11.
- Strouv J., Toberg N. Tayanie arkticheskikh l'dov: uchenye rasskazyvayut o vozmozhnykh posledstviyakh. (The melting of the Arctic ice: Scientists talk about the possible consequences). Available at: http://www.greenpeace.org/russia/ru/news/2012/ September/Scientists-about-arctic-ice-minimum/ (accessed 07November 2014).
